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re: Win percentage for the South 7/1863
Posted on 9/8/19 at 5:30 pm to tigahbruh
Posted on 9/8/19 at 5:30 pm to tigahbruh
quote:
But Lee's whole strategy at Gettysburg was taking that into account. The war was not terribly popular in the North. A major Confederate victory deep in Union territory would have made a strong morale impact
Lee had 0 chance to take DC, much less get through Gettysburg. His own commanders tried and tried to get him to change tactics. Even if he’d gotten through Gettysburg he wouldn’t have any army left to go to DC. He was way too outnumbered. Their cannons in Gettysburg for the south has rigged up, awful, balls. There were northern soldiers hit square up from confederate cannons and they still kept fighting. The confederate artillery was a joke.
Lee’s best chance would have been to stay defensive and drag the war on another decade. But southerners probably would have starved out by then. The south was never going to win. Saying all I said, Lee and his other commanders were something else making it go 4 years. North should have won in 4 months at most
2
Posted on 9/8/19 at 5:38 pm to Gr8t8s
quote:
Or, if Stonewall was alive for Gettysburg, I think the entire complexion of the war would have changed.
Instead of losing at Gettysburg, the South would have lost at Union Mills, MD. People need to realize that Lee and Meade never had any intention of fighting at Gettysburg. Lee's commanders disobeyed direct orders by attacking the Union divisions there. Had Jackson been alive and managed to take Cemetery Hill in the midst of a Federal withdrawal from Seminary Ridge and the ground north of town, the Union army would have fallen back and entrenched somewhere else.
The Battle of Gettysburg, as we know it today, would have lasted for just one day.
Posted on 9/8/19 at 5:38 pm to windshieldman
Lee should have imo used those troops to break the Vicksburg siege and retake New Orleans instead of going after DC. Grants best and favorite tactic was to get 4 times the manpower and lay siege on the confederate army and starve them out. Pemberton wasn’t gonna lose Vicksburg due to the north fighting them out, he was only gonna lose it once they got starved out. Lee should have broke the siege and assisted Pemberton. At the same time there should have been an attempt to retake New Orleans.
This post was edited on 9/8/19 at 5:39 pm
Posted on 9/9/19 at 6:15 am to windshieldman
quote:The issue with the cannons were the fuses. WBTS cannon fired three types of rounds. Solid shot (balls), shotgun like disbursement (canister), and fragmentation rounds (shell). Shell was most effective at distance because the rounds were hollow, filled with black powder, and airburst into shrapnel.
cannons in Gettysburg for the south has rigged up, awful, balls
The way shell worked was there was a wooden fuse that was cut based on distance (the fuse was known to burn at a certain rate, so you could cut a fuse so that it would burn for a flight of x yards). When the round was fired from the cannon, the flame of the black powder propellant ignited the fuse.
Unfortunately for the CSA, in the months before Gettysburg, fuse manufacture moved from the Richmond VA arsenal to the Augusta (GA) and Selma (AL) arsenals. Because those locations were further south, they dealt with higher humidity, and the fuse wood was impacted. The fuses had a slightly higher moisture content, and would burn slower.
The Confederate cannoneers didn't know this, so they would cut a fuse for 200 yards, but the burn rate actually would make it a 250 yard fuse. The shell would launch, the fuse would ignite, but would burst past its target.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 6:36 am to pensacola
The Confederates only had a chance to win if the British had intervened, which quite possible would have happened IF the Confederates had achieved a string of devastating victories during any of the early campaigns.
Historically speaking, civil wars don't usually end well for the rebels without outside influence. The Confederates were simply outmanned and outequipped compared to the Union despite their superior economic position of the time. The British demanded a convincing show of force to break the peace and cooperation they tried to foster with the US for the better part of 50 years; Lee simply couldn't provide this despite his best efforts.
After 1863 dawned the bigwig Confederates were just fighting for the right to negotiate avoiding the gallows, whether they knew it at the time or not.
Historically speaking, civil wars don't usually end well for the rebels without outside influence. The Confederates were simply outmanned and outequipped compared to the Union despite their superior economic position of the time. The British demanded a convincing show of force to break the peace and cooperation they tried to foster with the US for the better part of 50 years; Lee simply couldn't provide this despite his best efforts.
After 1863 dawned the bigwig Confederates were just fighting for the right to negotiate avoiding the gallows, whether they knew it at the time or not.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 6:55 am to Strannix
quote:
then a march on the Capitol
No way Lee could have successfully threatened DC.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 6:56 am to windshieldman
quote:You can't take the ANV out of the theater completely. If so, Richmond falls that summer and the war ends.
Lee should have imo used those troops to break the Vicksburg siege and retake New Orleans instead of going after DC.
At most you send a portion, like Lee did in September '63 by sending Longstreet with two divisions to reinforce Bragg at Chickamauga. Even then, Lee still had 55,000 men at his disposal to defend Richmond.
Lee had at best 75,000 troops at Gettysburg. Pemberton had 33,000 at Vicksburg. Grant had 77,000 at Vicksburg.
Lee would have had to have sent at least half his army for any real hope to relieve the siege at Vicksburg. That would have left less than 40,000 men to opposed Meade's 100,000+.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 7:19 am to Gr8t8s
But grant wasn't in charge, Lincoln was
Posted on 9/9/19 at 7:26 am to PJinAtl
Pemberton had that number inside the walls. Joe Johnston had scraped up about a third of Grant's strength at Jackson and was asking for more help. but there was none coming.
The big mistake at Vicksburg was not being ready for a siege to start with, The non combatants should have been long gone and the warehouses should have been filled and ready.
Hindsight is, of course, 20-20, but breaking that siege and Grant might have done more for the South than anything else. The strategy likely should have been dig the ANV in around Richmond and send everything the South could to Johnston.
The big mistake at Vicksburg was not being ready for a siege to start with, The non combatants should have been long gone and the warehouses should have been filled and ready.
Hindsight is, of course, 20-20, but breaking that siege and Grant might have done more for the South than anything else. The strategy likely should have been dig the ANV in around Richmond and send everything the South could to Johnston.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 7:51 am to GetCocky11
quote:
They still would have lost.
If the north would have fought on, Lincoln may well have lost the '64 election, conscription, no end to the war in sight, desertions after the emancipation proclamation...
Victories at Gettysburg and Vicksburg withstanding the siege would have been a political dagger for the continuation of the war.
Lincoln wasn't particularly popular till he was assassinated.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 7:58 am to GetCocky11
Lee’s goal was to march to Washington and dictate terms for a cease fire. A victory at Gettysburg and the Army of Northern Virginia sitting outside the city would’ve given him that option.
I sometimes wonder if a Confederate victory would’ve been better overall for the country both short and long term. Short term as a “cessation of hostilities” would’ve resulted in the sides back at the table to reunite the Union, which would’ve happened. The power of the union would’ve been preserved at the state level, which long term would’ve been better for the country. Probably would’ve been better for north/ south relations because the razing of the south and Reconstruction would’ve never happened.
And slavery was very likely just a few years away from dying anyways with the advances in machinery. And a dissolution of slavery willingly is much different than the ending and then the north essentially telling the south “your problem. Let us know how that works out.”
I sometimes wonder if a Confederate victory would’ve been better overall for the country both short and long term. Short term as a “cessation of hostilities” would’ve resulted in the sides back at the table to reunite the Union, which would’ve happened. The power of the union would’ve been preserved at the state level, which long term would’ve been better for the country. Probably would’ve been better for north/ south relations because the razing of the south and Reconstruction would’ve never happened.
And slavery was very likely just a few years away from dying anyways with the advances in machinery. And a dissolution of slavery willingly is much different than the ending and then the north essentially telling the south “your problem. Let us know how that works out.”
Posted on 9/9/19 at 8:06 am to pensacola
If South went 2-0, the war would have been essentially over.
It would have meant Grant would have lost the siege at Vicksburg and the only way that would have happened would have been if he had been attacked from his flank and Pemberton came out from the city at the same time - surrounding and capturing Grant and his army.
Lee winning at Gettysburg would have been a huge psychological blow to the North and would have also opened DC to capture.
It would have meant Grant would have lost the siege at Vicksburg and the only way that would have happened would have been if he had been attacked from his flank and Pemberton came out from the city at the same time - surrounding and capturing Grant and his army.
Lee winning at Gettysburg would have been a huge psychological blow to the North and would have also opened DC to capture.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 8:10 am to pensacola
If only someone would have thought to go chemical/germ warfare, they would have easily won.
Some blankets with small pox or AIDS on them would have worked awesome
Some blankets with small pox or AIDS on them would have worked awesome
Posted on 9/9/19 at 8:39 am to pensacola
My boy’s mother was a sturgeon.
(Or smelt of it)
(Or smelt of it)
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:06 am to elprez00
quote:
Lee’s goal was to march to Washington and dictate terms for a cease fire.
I think Lee's goal was simply to get the war out of Virginia. If he had plans to actually attack Washington, I don't think he would've gone all the way up to southern Pennsylvania.
Capturing a state capital like Harrisburg would have been a huge victory for Lee.
This post was edited on 9/9/19 at 9:08 am
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:26 am to PJinAtl
quote:
Lee had at best 75,000 troops at Gettysburg. Pemberton had 33,000 at Vicksburg.
You can double check but iirc Pemberton had around 20,000 inside the city limits during the siege. There was 10+ thousand on the outskirts initially.
quote:
If so, Richmond falls that summer and the war ends.
Yeah, definitely but I think 15-20,000 could have worked especially if you figure in, I can't remember the name right now, Johnson maybe? He was in the general area wanting to help and had iirc around 15,000 troops, but maybe it wasn't that many.
Grant made probably 5-6 advances on Vicksburg and kept getting denied, his men were wore out, although I believe he asked for like another 20,30, or 40,000 troops, some ridiculous number, to come in and siege. I just think breaking the siege at Vicksburg was more feasible than capturing DC. But I agree, you still have to defend Richmond.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:27 am to PJinAtl
quote:
The issue with the cannons were the fuses. WBTS cannon fired three types of rounds. Solid shot (balls), shotgun like disbursement (canister), and fragmentation rounds (shell). Shell was most effective at distance because the rounds were hollow, filled with black powder, and airburst into shrapnel.
The way shell worked was there was a wooden fuse that was cut based on distance (the fuse was known to burn at a certain rate, so you could cut a fuse so that it would burn for a flight of x yards). When the round was fired from the cannon, the flame of the black powder propellant ignited the fuse.
Unfortunately for the CSA, in the months before Gettysburg, fuse manufacture moved from the Richmond VA arsenal to the Augusta (GA) and Selma (AL) arsenals. Because those locations were further south, they dealt with higher humidity, and the fuse wood was impacted. The fuses had a slightly higher moisture content, and would burn slower.
The Confederate cannoneers didn't know this, so they would cut a fuse for 200 yards, but the burn rate actually would make it a 250 yard fuse. The shell would launch, the fuse would ignite, but would burst past its target.
Interesting, thank you for that.
Posted on 9/9/19 at 9:04 pm to elprez00
quote:
Lee’s goal was to march to Washington and dictate terms for a cease fire.
That never entered his mind because he knew he could never take Washington.
Lee's goals for the Pennsylvania campaign were as follows:
1) Win a decisive victory over the Army of the Potomac on Union soil
2) Foment the growing Northern peace movement
3) Get the war out of Virginia so the farmers could repair and replant their fields
4) Procure much-needed supplies such as food, ammunition and shoes.
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