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re: Will the housing market burst soon?

Posted on 1/19/22 at 8:29 pm to
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
32958 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 8:29 pm to
$499,000 for 860 sqft
Posted by BeerMoney
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2012
8375 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 8:40 pm to
I wouldn’t buy a house if you’re considering getting married in the next 5 years. She’ll want her house not the shite you buy. Trust me, been there.
Posted by Sweet Pickles
Member since Mar 2017
368 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 9:00 pm to
The only thing that is going to happen in the near term is that the market will go from white hot to red hot.
Posted by BeepNode
Lafayette
Member since Feb 2014
10005 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 9:03 pm to
Here's how it works.

If you buy a house the market will collapse and you'll owe way more on the house than it is worth.

If you don't buy a house the market will continue to go outta control and then you'll have to pay $100k more next year.

Which bad outcome is easier to swallow. I think you know the answer..
Posted by USMEagles
Member since Jan 2018
11811 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 9:07 pm to
quote:

Cumming and Dahlonega are growing like crazy


Forsyth County blows my mind. It's gone from basically all white to a place where Sikhs invite you to an Ethiopian Bar Mitzvah in 25 years. And property values have increased by 1000%.
Posted by Indfanfromcol
LSU
Member since Jan 2011
14733 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 9:31 pm to
I foresee Orlando having a major economic problem soon because of the housing market here. It’s has boomed. And I mean boomed. Wife works with someone who owned a home in a not desirable neighborhood. She bought in 2019 and sold in 2021. Went from 250k to 340k. Sold in a week. Rent prices are being reported going up 11-20%. And our economy is tourism based, so we depend heavily on hourly wage workers. Even with all the parks raising minimum wage to $15 hr, it essentially gets negated by the housing and rent market increases. I foresee a lot of those hourly workers who keep the tourism economy going to soon be priced out of living in Orlando and massive labor shortages to follow. Even more than what we are seeing now.
Posted by goofball
Member since Mar 2015
16864 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 9:39 pm to
I don’t think there is a bubble. We just spent over a decade under-building. And now that millennials are finally ready to buy, there just aren’t enough houses for sale out there to satisfy demand.

More younger homebuyers probably need to look into transitioning/gentrifying existing neighborhoods closer to the city centers.

Unless there is economic collapse, there isn’t much to slow this down until interest rates are hiked. That could be later this year.
This post was edited on 1/19/22 at 9:41 pm
Posted by Spankum
Miss-sippi
Member since Jan 2007
56030 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 9:42 pm to
Renew and wait a while. I bought my hous it\n 2007 at a peak in the market and spent a decade upside down on my mortgage. I am just now getting right again.
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
95477 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 10:03 pm to
Only reason I would say “no” is that inflation is through the roof and buying existing property will be a lot fricking cheaper than breaking ground on a new house.


It is a huge bubble and WILL burst at some point but I don’t see the market conditions causing it yet.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
75203 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 10:15 pm to
quote:

And now that millennials are finally ready to buy


I don’t get this millennials ready to buy houses talk. A good percentage of millennials are 34-40. They more than likely bought their first home years ago. If you’re referring to 25-29 year olds that really isn’t a millennial.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
35319 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 10:22 pm to
quote:

It is a huge bubble


What makes it a bubble?

Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
35319 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 10:27 pm to
quote:

If you’re referring to 25-29 year olds that really isn’t a millennial.


Yes they are.

That's like saying someone born in 1960 isn't really a baby boomer.
Posted by BeepNode
Lafayette
Member since Feb 2014
10005 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 10:40 pm to
quote:

I foresee Orlando having a major economic problem soon because of the housing market here. It’s has boomed. And I mean boomed. Wife works with someone who owned a home in a not desirable neighborhood. She bought in 2019 and sold in 2021. Went from 250k to 340k. Sold in a week.


What you're describing is happening everywhere halfway decent and a lot of places that aren't.

I've seen houses in Livingston Parish that have no business being over $200k sell for $240k.
Posted by BigWillyMetry
Member since Dec 2021
1548 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 10:42 pm to
Considering inflation is approaching 8% or more, it’s a pretty good deal to purchase a home with 3-3.5% mortgage paper.
Posted by transcend
Austin, TX
Member since Aug 2013
4166 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 10:52 pm to
I remember when I was your age and I decided to wait it out in the Austin market. I paid twice as much three years later. My house is worth double that now.

It’s not slowing down in hot markets anytime soon. Even if it does slow, it certainly isn’t reversing course. Strike while interest is low.
Posted by SoDakHawk
South Dakota
Member since Jun 2014
8571 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 11:00 pm to
Find a great paying job that you can work remote. Purchase a great priced house in the rural Midwest. Profit like crazy.
Posted by Pintail
Member since Nov 2011
10444 posts
Posted on 1/19/22 at 11:11 pm to
quote:

THIS... So have I missed something? Are these Millennials who are paying $750k for a house really making $250k/yr? Is it generational wealth? Has the ratio changed? I make what I consider good money, but I'm not dropping $750k regardless if the "ratio" says so.... ?????


Back in 2016 my wife and I, one year out of college and married 5 months, were approved for over $600k on our first home loan (not at all what we bought)The thought of paying that much for 30 years scared the everliving shite out of me. But I can just imagine kids just out of school putting themselves into that kind of debt.
This post was edited on 1/19/22 at 11:13 pm
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
75203 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 12:07 am to
quote:

Yes they are.

That's like saying someone born in 1960 isn't really a baby boomer.





A 25 year old isn’t a millennial
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
73635 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 12:14 am to
quote:

Inflation is going to drive rates up from these historic lows, how much remains to be seen, but I remember my parents refinancing after Carter and the rate was still over 10%.

Go look what happened to rates in the 80s.


how much were homes worth in the 80s
Posted by H2O Tiger
Delta Sky Club
Member since May 2021
6614 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 12:15 am to
quote:

$499,000 for 860 sqft

That's an apartmrnt, you don't even get a yard!
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