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Started By
Message
re: Why aren’t COVID rates scooting up in NOLA?
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:02 pm to ellishughtiger
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:02 pm to ellishughtiger
quote:
I don’t know anyone in my group of friends living here that have test +, we wear mask when going to grocery stores, avoid large gatherings, carry around hand sanitizer. The little things, you know.
1
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:04 pm to LSUFanHouston
It ran thru the population early on. Louisiana isn't being hit so hard right now because we already had our onslaught.
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:08 pm to vistajay
quote:
The African American population of NOLA saw the early disproportionate death numbers and have taken it seriously ever since
No they haven’t, for example see the weekend block parties under the overpasses.
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:22 pm to Privateer 2007
quote:
HERD IMMUNITY
According to Johns Hopkins, you need between 50% and 90% immunity to reach herd immunity. The % depends on how contagious the disease is. This virus, while not deadly for most, is very contagious. But, to give benefit of the doubt, let's say you need to only hit 50% immunity to achieve it....
Louisiana has reported approximately 195k cases of covid. Now, I know a lot of you don't really trust that number since it is believed states like to inflate their # of cases. But using that logic, the amount of people tested positive would go down and thus further decrease the threshold to achieve herd immunity. Again, giving the benefit of the doubt I'll still use the 195k number.
Louisiana's total population is approx 4.6 million. So basically, at least 2.3 million people in the state need to have contracted covid for the state to reach herd immunity. This means, if you believe herd immunity has been achieved, that you believe that 2.1 million people got it without going get a covid test to confirm.
Do you believe that is a reasonable assumption to make? I feel like that's quite the leap to make unless there's something else I should be considering.
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:26 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:Yes, they were both successful at ruining small businesses and big segments of our economy.
Did JBE and Latoya policies actually... work??
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:28 pm to LSUFanHouston
We didnt have the riots and mass protests. But dont worry, they are coming from the biden parades over the weekend.
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:30 pm to Hazelnut
You just made a long argument about whether or not louisiana reaching herd immunity when we are only talking about new orleans.
and lots of research don't think 50% has to be achieved since a lot of people have natural immunities.
As to how many people have gotten it without getting tested, no real way to try to quantify that at all. Just reasonable to assume it's a fairly decent number.
and lots of research don't think 50% has to be achieved since a lot of people have natural immunities.
As to how many people have gotten it without getting tested, no real way to try to quantify that at all. Just reasonable to assume it's a fairly decent number.
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:30 pm to vistajay
quote:
The African American population of NOLA saw the early disproportionate death numbers and have taken it seriously ever since, for the most part. So that's 70% of the population right there.
I live there and this is a fricking lie. I would see little groups of people doing the blm protests and the only people I saw without masks in any of those groups were black men.
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:34 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
It’s almost like places where the weather forces people indoors have increasing rates and places where the weather is nice so you can be outdoors more have declining rates
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:34 pm to LSUFanHouston
I'm fairly good about wearing my mask do to my immune compromised condition, but when I was there this past weekend, everyone seemed to wear one. A lot of places are still closed and reduced hours so hard to spread when nothing is open.
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:40 pm to bbap
quote:
You just made a long argument about whether or not louisiana reaching herd immunity when we are only talking about new orleans.
Some were talking state wide and that took less time to get the numbers together and get the point across so that's what I did. But the same argument can be made for New Orleans. If I narrow it down to just the greater new orleans area, then there will still be a rather large number of people that you'd have to assume got the virus without getting a positive test.
quote:
and lots of research don't think 50% has to be achieved since a lot of people have natural immunities.
Do you have any links? I'd be interested to read more on it.
quote:
As to how many people have gotten it without getting tested, no real way to try to quantify that at all. Just reasonable to assume it's a fairly decent number.
Yeah it's probably a significant number. I don't know if it's 950% more people like it'd have to be for state wide herd immunity (assuming a 50% threshold).
People like to say that there's no data out there on how well certain measures work to prevent the spread (masks, etc). And while I'm not here to argue that, I think it's also a little hypocritical to question that but not question their own assumptions when they assume an area has reached herd immunity.
But hey, like I said, I'm open to counter points showing otherwise like the research you pointed out.
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:49 pm to Hazelnut
Louisiana was hit in early stages.
Likely have a very high
Infection to "case" ratio in NOLA.
Herd immunity isn't a switch. As ppl get immune virus spreads less and less.
Sweden is basically there.
They've got a little spike now but deaths are 1/20 or so of their peak.
Likely have a very high
Infection to "case" ratio in NOLA.
Herd immunity isn't a switch. As ppl get immune virus spreads less and less.
Sweden is basically there.
They've got a little spike now but deaths are 1/20 or so of their peak.
Posted on 11/11/20 at 1:54 pm to dgnx6
quote:
I live there and this is a fricking lie.
And yet the daily COVID numbers in NOLA over the past few months remain low compared to the rest of the state. Of course there are exceptions but in general most in NOLA take the precautions more seriously than in most of the rest of Louisiana.
Posted on 11/11/20 at 2:03 pm to Privateer 2007
quote:
Louisiana was hit in early stages.
Likely have a very high
Infection to "case" ratio in NOLA.
Herd immunity isn't a switch. As ppl get immune virus spreads less and less.
I'd agree. It's still hard for me to believe that the ratio would be high enough at this point assuming the 50% threshold. But what that threshold is, is definitely the key. It may be more or less, and like you said, it is a gradual shift over time not something overnight.
quote:
Sweden is basically there.
They've got a little spike now but deaths are 1/20 or so of their peak.
Sweden's cases to population is an even wider gap than Louisiana (167k to 10.2 million). So again, for them to have herd immunity, you would have to have a REALLY HIGH number of people who got it but never got the test to confirm. Not saying that's impossible, but it is hard to imagine. I'd think you could explain their drop in deaths due to their deaths during the peak being disproportionately high as their nursing homes got completely run through in the beginning. Now they seem to be much more careful with that.
This post was edited on 11/11/20 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 11/11/20 at 3:18 pm to ellishughtiger
That is why I do not spend my money in that hell hole. No mask is needed. I don't live in China. The Virus has mutated it is no worse that the flu.....People die from Heart attaches, Pneumonia, Flu Virus, Aides Virus, Ca ect.
Posted on 11/11/20 at 5:35 pm to Hazelnut
quote:
According to Johns Hopkins, you need between 50% and 90% immunity to reach herd immunity. The % depends on how contagious the disease is. This virus, while not deadly for most, is very contagious. But, to give benefit of the doubt, let's say you need to only hit 50% immunity to achieve it....
Louisiana has reported approximately 195k cases of covid. Now, I know a lot of you don't really trust that number since it is believed states like to inflate their # of cases. But using that logic, the amount of people tested positive would go down and thus further decrease the threshold to achieve herd immunity. Again, giving the benefit of the doubt I'll still use the 195k number.
Louisiana's total population is approx 4.6 million. So basically, at least 2.3 million people in the state need to have contracted covid for the state to reach herd immunity. This means, if you believe herd immunity has been achieved, that you believe that 2.1 million people got it without going get a covid test to confirm.
Do you believe that is a reasonable assumption to make? I feel like that's quite the leap to make unless there's something else I should be considering.
so here's the deal pal. The CDC has stated numerous times that the true amount of Covid infections are actually 6 to 10 times the number reported. Therefore, if we take the 195,000 that you so generously gave us and multiply by 8 (which is right in the middle of 6 and 10) we arrive at a number around 1.5 million, or 30% of the population. If we set that 30% as the statewide average we could reasonably say that NOLA has probably been disproportionately hit harder than the rural areas... so maybe 40%? With that being said, R0 (or number that expresses the contagion of the virus) is an ever changing number because of current immunity. If the R0 was 2.5 at the beginning of the pandemic with zero immunity then it stands to reason (using interpolation) that the current R0 at 40% is somewhere around 1.5. This also assumes that NOBODY has built in immunity because of T-cells gained from other coronaviruses.
In conclusion, most people speak in terms of herd immunity as a point in time where the virus will simply stop spreading. The truth is that herd immunity is a gradual process that will see future "spikes" and slopes be less agressive and shorter in duration.
This post was edited on 11/11/20 at 5:37 pm
Posted on 11/12/20 at 9:45 am to setinways
quote:
so here's the deal pal. The CDC has stated numerous times that the true amount of Covid infections are actually 6 to 10 times the number reported. Therefore, if we take the 195,000 that you so generously gave us and multiply by 8 (which is right in the middle of 6 and 10) we arrive at a number around 1.5 million, or 30% of the population. If we set that 30% as the statewide average we could reasonably say that NOLA has probably been disproportionately hit harder than the rural areas... so maybe 40%? With that being said, R0 (or number that expresses the contagion of the virus) is an ever changing number because of current immunity. If the R0 was 2.5 at the beginning of the pandemic with zero immunity then it stands to reason (using interpolation) that the current R0 at 40% is somewhere around 1.5. This also assumes that NOBODY has built in immunity because of T-cells gained from other coronaviruses.
In conclusion, most people speak in terms of herd immunity as a point in time where the virus will simply stop spreading. The truth is that herd immunity is a gradual process that will see future "spikes" and slopes be less agressive and shorter in duration.
Well you were kinda a dick in the beginning of your argument, but I did not see that from the CDC. So, that is interesting.
Contrary to popular belief, I'm not on here making arguments to show people that I'm right and they're not. I'm doing it to hear other points of view and possibly expand my understanding. Thanks for the counter point
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