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Posted on 6/16/26 at 2:28 pm to bad93ex
quote:That’s not really responsive.
No, the world was supposed to end and the sky was supposed to fall.
If Iran got concessions without oil hitting $200, that doesn’t prove Hormuz lacked leverage.
It proves the leverage worked better than expected.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 2:33 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
That’s not really responsive.
You're right it wasn't, it was supposed to lead to economic ruin for all civilization but the economy kept going. Maybe it was all the hoopla around AI and data center buildouts but it didn't seem to phase anyone at all in my area.
quote:
If Iran got concessions without oil hitting $200, that doesn’t prove Hormuz lacked leverage.
Never doubted that the Strait holds leverage.
quote:
It proves the leverage worked better than expected.
They are $300B richer now and can lead Trump around by the nose now.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 2:36 pm to bad93ex
Misunderstood your point. Apologies. 
Posted on 6/16/26 at 2:39 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
You started to see demand destruction in asian markets.
No one said it is over either.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 2:55 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
No one said it is over either.
Always a chance for a rug pull or someone to get "disrespected."
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:20 pm to bad93ex
quote:
Not saying this isn't possible but despite it being shut down for 3 months, oil never touched $200 a barrel as was prophesized.
Worldwide reserves made this possible. Those reserves are much lower now. We didn’t have an unlimited roadway.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:26 pm to Decatur
quote:
Worldwide reserves made this possible. Those reserves are much lower now. We didn’t have an unlimited roadway.
Worldwide reserves, China's change in demand and workarounds
According to Bloomberg
Why isn't it $200 a barrel
quote:
It’s now been more than three months since the waterway was effectively blocked, creating the worst supply shock in modern history. But a slew of workarounds is keeping crude oil below $100 a barrel, defying many of the industry’s grimmest forecasts for prices as high as $200.
A combination of record US exports, a sharp and unexpected slowdown in Chinese demand and a steady trickle of crude still finding its way through the strait has helped absorb much of the shock from the loss of more than 10 million barrels a day of Middle Eastern supply. A pre-war surplus has also eased the blow.
Tehran is authorized to begin selling immediately, will we see an end to "higher-than-average' inflation?
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:33 pm to bad93ex
quote:
Tehran is authorized to begin selling immediately, will we see an end to "higher-than-average' inflation?
And no sanctions to buy whatever they want with that money.
Not to mention the regime in charge just firmed up it's grip hen talking about the westerners who want to do harm.
quote:
will we see an end to "higher-than-average' inflation?
How much capacity was lost will become a story with this recovery. The amount of inventory on water also went down a lot with Russian sanctions being lifted during this time.
This post was edited on 6/16/26 at 5:35 pm
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:38 pm to bad93ex
I’m curious to look at tomorrow’s EIA weekly print to see how Cushing reserves are doing. They were getting low. Still might get lower depending on how quickly things resolve.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:45 pm to Decatur
quote:
I’m curious to look at tomorrow’s EIA weekly print to see how Cushing reserves are doing. They were getting low. Still might get lower depending on how quickly things resolve
They will be near operational min. Will take a few weeks to see the correction for supply. What that means for WTI trading may be interesting. There was probably some pressure of that looming storm cloud in this deal.
Even then a lot of governments will be pushing to bring in bbls to refill their SPRs.
I believe the US is at the lowest since 1994. And the reserve itself needs some serious attention and maintenance. Believe they may have learned some things with this last sell off.
This post was edited on 6/16/26 at 3:47 pm
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:47 pm to bad93ex
quote:
Based on Pentagon reports, direct US operational and munitions costs for the Iran conflict since late Feb reached ~$29B by mid-May. Independent estimates range $28-35B. This covers most expended munitions (e.g. 1,000+ Tomahawks) and equipment ops/maintenance. Full costs for damaged/destroyed assets, infrastructure, and stockpile replenishment likely push the total to $40B+. Broader trackers including regional aid exceed $100B. Exact final tally pending full accounting.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:50 pm to cgrand
quote:
US officials have now confirmed in a briefing that Iran will get full access to a total of $100 billion in frozen funds and the $300 billion reconstruction fund, both included in the deal with implementation now underway, per WSJ. More than $150 billion of the fund has already been committed, directly contradicting Trump's claims that the US would not contribute to the $300 billion fund, per Reuters.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:52 pm to cgrand
Holy frick 
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:52 pm to cgrand
quote:
Trump's claims that the US would not contribute to the $300 billion fund, per Reuters.
He only claimed $300 million was fake news.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:53 pm to fightin tigers
miss lindsey says its a win guys, so pipe down
quote:
Lindsey Graham: Here’s what we’ve achieved. If this thing goes through, we’ve opened up the straits…There will be in a permanent ceasefire, hopefully, and we’ll try to get a nuclear deal with Iran. Hopefully, that will work out. If it doesn’t, then we’ve still achieved opening up the straits and stopping the fighting
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:54 pm to cgrand
quote:
If it doesn’t, then we’ve still achieved opening up the straits and stopping the fighting
No way this is the talking points
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:56 pm to cgrand
quote:
we’ve still achieved opening up the straits and stopping the fighting
We’ve made life just as it was in February for the low, low cost of a quarter trillion dollars
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:57 pm to NawlinsTiger9
a look inside the trump situation room
Posted on 6/16/26 at 3:59 pm to NawlinsTiger9
14 Americans died for absolutely nothing.
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