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Variable Change And The Movie 21
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:41 am
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:41 am
For anyone who hasn’t seen the movie it’s about a MIT student who gets into counting cards with his professor. He’s discovered after answering a question in his variable change class.
The question is basically: you have 3 doors. Behind one door is a grand prize and behind the other two are piles of shite. He asks the student which door he’d choose. He picks a door and they reveal its one of the piles of shite. So now a grand prize and one pile of shite is left. He asks the student if he wants to change his answer and after answering “yes” the professor asks “why”? The student states “before I had a 33% percent of picking the right door. Now that you removed one door I have a 66% of picking the right door.” The professor raves about how he’s so smart and yada yada.
How is this? Is that an accurate explanation of variable change? If so how the hell is it not 50% chance after the third door is removed? Please tell me this is just movie screenwriting. Been fricking with my mind all night.
The question is basically: you have 3 doors. Behind one door is a grand prize and behind the other two are piles of shite. He asks the student which door he’d choose. He picks a door and they reveal its one of the piles of shite. So now a grand prize and one pile of shite is left. He asks the student if he wants to change his answer and after answering “yes” the professor asks “why”? The student states “before I had a 33% percent of picking the right door. Now that you removed one door I have a 66% of picking the right door.” The professor raves about how he’s so smart and yada yada.
How is this? Is that an accurate explanation of variable change? If so how the hell is it not 50% chance after the third door is removed? Please tell me this is just movie screenwriting. Been fricking with my mind all night.
28
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:43 am to GAFF
288 pages
Mostly with Lnchbox, th03, and pride arguing.
Mostly with Lnchbox, th03, and pride arguing.
This post was edited on 6/14/18 at 6:44 am
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:43 am to GAFF
The professor was dead the whole time
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:44 am to GAFF
quote:
Ben fricking with my mind all night.
FIFY
ETA: To answer the question, he still has three doors. He just now knows he can eliminate one door. I dont think it matters which one of the two remaining doors he picks or if he switches his pick. His probability is the same for either door, he just eliminated 33% of the equation to begin with.
This post was edited on 6/14/18 at 6:51 am
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:44 am to GAFF
The mother is the doctor
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:44 am to GAFF
The number of doors didn't decrease.
This post was edited on 6/14/18 at 6:49 am
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:47 am to GAFF
quote:
For anyone who hasn’t seen the movie
You think ppl have to have watched that shitty movie to know about the Monty Hall problem?
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:47 am to GAFF
Look up Monty Hall problem.
There are plenty of vids.
There are plenty of vids.
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:48 am to GAFF
It’s a classic problem: called Monty Hall. YouTube some videos on it and they explain it well
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:48 am to Sao
But wouldn’t it be 66% for the other door as well if that was the case?
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:48 am to GAFF
All 12 did it...
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:49 am to GAFF
Third door isn't removed. It's just not going to be his choice.
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:51 am to GAFF
Because 7,8,9
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:51 am to GAFF
It’s called the Monty Hall problem, the fundamental reason is rooted in the teacher knowing which is the prize. If the host/teacher is removing the wrong one by chance you are correct.
So at the start, each has a 33% chance of being the right one. So your selection has 33%, and everything else has a 66% chance.
The fact that the host knows which one is the prize, and deliberately removes an incorrect choice means that the probability transfers over. The pool that wasn’t your selection had a 66% chance to have the right one before removal, and it still does. They just removed a wrong answer. So you always switch.
So at the start, each has a 33% chance of being the right one. So your selection has 33%, and everything else has a 66% chance.
The fact that the host knows which one is the prize, and deliberately removes an incorrect choice means that the probability transfers over. The pool that wasn’t your selection had a 66% chance to have the right one before removal, and it still does. They just removed a wrong answer. So you always switch.
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:51 am to GAFF
The right answer is “because the door I picked reveals a steaming pile of shite. Odds be damned.... I’ve got no place to go but up.”
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:51 am to GAFF
Not Penny's boat
Posted on 6/14/18 at 6:54 am to GAFF
it depends on the rules of the game. I know this problem but haven't seen the movie. In this scenario the rules state something about the host opening doors after you've chosen and ths provides additional information which changes the probabilities. But without that, you are left with a new, independent trial and the prob of success if 50%.
So - depends on the rules of the game, and I can't remember that whole Monte Hall scenario right now.
So - depends on the rules of the game, and I can't remember that whole Monte Hall scenario right now.
Posted on 6/14/18 at 7:28 am to PearlJam
quote:
Mostly with Lnchbox, th03, and pride arguing.
Posted on 6/14/18 at 7:30 am to GAFF
Rectum?
Damn near killed em
Damn near killed em
Posted on 6/14/18 at 7:38 am to GAFF
If you blow it up it’s easier to understand. Imagine there are 100 doors. You make your choice, and then the game show host turns over 98 doors with no prize behind them. If he asks you if you want to switch from your choice to the 1 door he didn’t open, you definitely do it because the fact that that one door was the only one not opened reveals information in and of itself. The fact that it wasn’t one of the 98 bust doors means the prize is probably behind it (99%chance in fact)
This post was edited on 6/14/18 at 7:39 am
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