re: US oil producers face new growth challenges in top oilfield (Permian)

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I see plenty of spots where they can fit more wells.

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You don't know where the faults are here. Whether these are vertical or horizontal wells. More than just looking aerially to see if they can fit more.

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they” are saying that within 5 years water disposal is going to have to be shipped out of the Permian, which super inflates disposal costs making that which is currently cost prohibitive economically competitive.

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I don't see why. There's like 15,000 feet of ground you can inject that into. Maybe not the top 1,000 ft or so because that's aquifer, but the depths of 1,000 to 15,000 ft. The wells produced from reservoirs like 50 to 300 ft thick. They should be able to find some zone, some where that can take it.

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at $165/bbl, you’d see all sort of new secondary recovery projects get funded to squeeze many more barrels out of there.

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I believe alternative energy and EVs would take over if oil hit $165 a barrel. Gasoline would be $6 a gallon. EVs would be cheaper at that point. There'd more investment into them to improve them and their reliability at that point.

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I believe we still have lots and lots of untapped oil onshore U.S. lands

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I am a petroleum engineer. Where do you think this is? I can't imagine some large undiscovered oil basin in the US that is hidden that we've never found containing billions of barrels of oil. That day in my opinion has passed. Could there be tiny reservoirs in Eastern Washington? Maybe. Check out a US map of every well that has ever been drilled in the US. A shite ton has already been tried.

The likely outcome in my opinion is that we'll move onto more costly areas like Pecos County in the Permian which isn't as good, places like North Slope Alaska that is a huge awesome basin, but so expensive to get that oil down here, places like DJ Basin or Scoop Stack that have like 6 active rigs now will get further explored.

It will keep driving oil price slightly higher as it's more expensive oil cost per bbl to produce. Then at some point when oil gets more expensive, it will make financial sense to switch to EVs. This will certainly not happen all at once. A full US transition will span decades, I don't even think it has started. It might take a decade from now to start, it might take 4 decades to see a start. I don't know.

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Yep. Huge efforts focused on recovering lithium from the brines.

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I interviewed with a public company in Houston in 2023 called Lake Resources that was doing this in Argentina maybe. That area is called the Lithium triangle and has like 40% of world's Lithium reserves. Part of the comp was equity. That stock price has dropped 95% since I interviewed. I'm glad I didn't get the job.

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Can the SPR be filled with light WTI Crude, or does it need to be heavier grade?

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Probably WTI crude considering gasoline is biggest end user of oil and its API is 50-60.

The Permian and Eastern New Mexico stay busy. That area is absolutely booming

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Continental is drilling the Woodford formation rather than the wolf camp.

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And there's some other operators drilling the Barnett.

Will be very interesting to see how these benches compare and if it extends the life of Tier 1 and/or Tier 2 horizontal shale development in the area.

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I am a petroleum engineer. Where do you think this is? I can't imagine some large undiscovered oil basin in the US that is hidden that we've never found containing billions of barrels of oil. That day in my opinion has passed. Could there be tiny reservoirs in Eastern Washington? Maybe. Check out a US map of every well that has ever been drilled in the US. A shite ton has already been tried.

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Hence why I qualified my opinion with "I'm not a reservoir engineer or geologist". Appreciate your input as a PE weighing in.

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DJ Basin

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Alot of the good rock there is going to get tougher and tougher to drill and produce in the current political/community climate there. Developers building neighborhoods on top of current active oil & gas leases, but not telling homebuyers they're about to have a home sitting on top of very desirable mineral acreage. "Ma'am...you may be starring at an oil rig from your backyard soon".

There's an uproar from citizens of Boulder County in recent days, because Civitas, knowing Boulder County would never approve a drill permit to allow it to move along to the state commission for approval, so they proposed an off-lease location just on the other side of the border in much more friendly Weld County. The Colorado Commission recently gave its approval, and now residents in neighboring Boulder, especially in the neighborhood sitting ontop some of those mineral leases, are pissed.

Gotta love Civitas's creativity there!