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re: UPDATE: Another Potential Severe Weather Event for the South (insert dates)
Posted on 3/28/21 at 1:40 am to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 3/28/21 at 1:40 am to GEAUXmedic
700k+ in a flash flood emergency.
1
Posted on 3/29/21 at 8:42 pm to Duke
@NWSBirmingham
That Brent/Centreville rating is surprising. I'd stack the radar imagery up against many high-end EF4s or low EF5s. That's why they do surveys, though.
quote:
BREAKING: We've upgraded 3 of the March 25th tornadoes to EF-3...Elliotts Creek (140 mph), Ohatchee-Wellington (140 mph) & Sawyerville-Centreville-Columbiana (150 mph). EF-2 damage (115 mph) has also been found in SW Marengo County.
quote:
Some impressive stats for the Sawyerville-Centreville-Columbiana EF-3 tornado:
- Path length = 80 mi
- Lifespan = 98 min
- Up to 1.3 miles wide
That Brent/Centreville rating is surprising. I'd stack the radar imagery up against many high-end EF4s or low EF5s. That's why they do surveys, though.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 9:30 pm to LegendInMyMind
They need to change their ways of rating... I read the other day where the El Reno tornado was only rated an EF3. Had the 2nd highest wind speeds ever recorded, yet only rated an EF3.
Posted on 3/30/21 at 6:21 am to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
They need to change their ways of rating... I read the other day where the El Reno tornado was only rated an EF3. Had the 2nd highest wind speeds ever recorded, yet only rated an EF3.
Those winds in El Reno were based only on radar estimates from vortices outside of the main funnel and from winds aloft. I just cannot foresee a complete abandonment of the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Looking at damage is one of the best ways to verify wind speeds. El Reno was just a situation where the strongest winds didn’t hit anything, so there was no damage to survey.
This post was edited on 3/30/21 at 6:24 am
Posted on 3/30/21 at 6:29 am to LegendInMyMind
The National Weather Service (including SPC and local forecast offices) has suffered a data outage this morning, so they can’t provide updated products this morning on their websites. There is some risk of severe weather in parts of the southeast tomorrow, but it isn’t the kind of high-end threat we’ve had the last two weeks.
Posted on 3/30/21 at 6:34 am to Roll Tide Ravens
It's still not even April, and I'm already done with tornado season. Time to move on to highs in the 90s and overnight lows in the 80s.
Posted on 3/30/21 at 7:05 am to HoLeInOnEr05
Eh not really. The el Reno thing was a very rare occurrence. Basing it off of damage provides the most uniform structure for everyone that may need the data to make decisions. If you change it to just raw wind estimates than you have government/insurance agencies earmarking money that may not be needed or may not be enough for the damage caused
Posted on 3/30/21 at 12:02 pm to Pedro
quote:
Eh not really. The el Reno thing was a very rare occurrence. Basing it off of damage provides the most uniform structure for everyone that may need the data to make decisions.
This is also part of the struggle with advancement in radar and technology. We can now see on radar minimal debris signatures. It doesn't take a violent high-end tornado to get a decent TDS. Likewise with wind. We get a little too caught up with radar-indicated wind speed knowing that it often doesn't verify on the ground, even with tornadoes. It is why you can't take to heart people looking at a radar image and screaming "EF4 or EF5!".
The El Reno tornado is an example. It also suffered from being at its strongest over rural, uninhabited areas. NWS surveyors had few structures to base findings on, and their survey methods are weighted heavily toward structure damage. There will forever be a group of chasers and mets, particularly those who were on the ground that day, who will say the El Reno tornado was an EF5. The Brent/Centreville tornado, because of its radar presentation, will likely be the same way.
We will almost certainly see tweaks to the EF scale in the near future that will account (or try to account) for the violence of different types of tornadoes (different vortices). The structure of some tornadoes just can make a 140 mph wind much more destructive than similar wind speeds in comparable tornadoes. It will be a more nuanced scale, but unfortunately it will never be perfect and it will never suit everyone.
Posted on 3/30/21 at 12:33 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
The National Weather Service (including SPC and local forecast offices) has suffered a data outage this morning
@stormchasernick
Posted on 3/30/21 at 12:54 pm to LegendInMyMind
Legend, rds, Duke, and whoever else: I think you guys will find this article interesting. It was written today following the NWS data outage. It discusses massive recent internet and data system failures within the National Weather Service, particularly recent failures within the crucial NWS Chat system used to communicate crucial weather warnings, storm reports, and other information to media outlets during weather events. As the article discusses, NWS Birmingham abandoned NWS Chat during the March 17th outbreak in favor of a private service because of NWS chat’s unreliability. NWS headquarters was pissed, warned local offices to never do that again, and forced NWS B’ham back to NWS Chat for last Thursday’s event.
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 3/30/21 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 3/30/21 at 12:56 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
I've seen a few folks talking about the issues on Twitter. I also saw the other day multiple on-air mets fussing about the chat. Issues with the chat have been going on for a while now. None of it is good.
ETA: thanks for the article! I will have to read it later.
ETA: thanks for the article! I will have to read it later.
This post was edited on 3/30/21 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 3/30/21 at 12:57 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I've seen a few folks talking about the issues on Twitter. I also saw the other day multiple on-air mets fussing about the chat. Issues with the chat have been going on for a while now. None of it is good.
Read the part in the article about NWS Birmingham’s attempt to use a more reliable chat service, and NWS HQ’s refusal to let them do so. It is infuriating.
Posted on 3/30/21 at 12:58 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Did they say which service? I bet it was WhatsApp, or however you spell it.
Posted on 3/30/21 at 1:00 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Did they say which service? I bet it was WhatsApp, or however you spell it.
NWS B’ham switched to Slack during the March 17th event. They gave all of the media outlets in their coverage area plenty of notice about the switch. Afterward, NWS HQ warned local offices not to use any outside chat service again.
Posted on 3/30/21 at 1:04 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
We are at the point where a large amount of money is going to need to be dumped into the NWS. Many mets supported and voted for the Biden Administration out of a belief he/they would be more open to better funding the NWS. We will see if their beliefs were well founded soon.
Posted on 3/30/21 at 1:18 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
We are at the point where a large amount of money is going to need to be dumped into the NWS. Many mets supported and voted for the Biden Administration out of a belief he/they would be more open to better funding the NWS. We will see if their beliefs were well founded soon.
Yeah, you can go to the comments on the article and it’s all blamed on Republicans. We will see if fixes come with a Democratic admin. I personally don’t think it is necessarily a Republican or Democrat thing, it’s just stupid government bureaucracy (made up of people on both sides), who can’t spend money on important things like this.
Posted on 3/30/21 at 2:16 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Here we go again.
At least the tornado threat is a bit less this time.
Allegedly.
At least the tornado threat is a bit less this time.
Allegedly.
Posted on 3/30/21 at 3:48 pm to East Coast Band
This one at least has a true cold front with it. We are going to see Winter-like temps behind the front for a few days, but should have settled weather for a little while. Could be the kind of late freeze that causes major issues for agriculture. Old folks just call it Dogwood Winter, and the Dogwoods just started blooming.
Posted on 3/30/21 at 3:51 pm to LegendInMyMind
Coming out of that cool down and looking down the line, it is looking like we may see the severe weather pattern shift some to the Midwest/Plains. I hate to see it anywhere, but anything that helps the Southeast during the month of April, I will take.
Posted on 3/30/21 at 4:13 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
I think you guys will find this article interesting
I read the article, and first I just want to say that, for better and worse, Jack Sillin is becoming a voice in the younger meteorologist world. It is for the better because he is brilliant in many aspects, particularly when it comes to modeling. For the worse because he, whether he will admit it or not, is a typical Millenial who is looking to advance "social justice" at every turn.
After the first High Risk day we had, he took to Twitter and posited a question. He, like just about anyone else who had ever dealt with radar in the states of AL and MS, looked at the radar that day and saw the less-than-desirable coverage (below 6,000 ft.) in Southwest Alabama, and immediately set about equating it to institutional racism within the NWS and Federal Government at large. He, along with another met student buddy of his, created a slick map showing radar voids in the US, specifically the Southeast. Mind you, there are plenty of voids across the country where radar coverage is less-than-ideal, but their map highlighted that specific void where it would draw the reader's eye. They then pointed out the "poor, rural area inhabited mostly by a large minority population".
Fine, you have an idea and you have certain opinions. But, that "research" was picked up and published by Forbes essentially as fact. Forbes took what those two said and ran with it, even using the questionable graphic. That is not good.
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