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Message
re: Tropical Storm Isaias - O Canada!
Posted on 7/23/20 at 8:50 am to Jake88
Posted on 7/23/20 at 8:50 am to Jake88
quote:
Why does Gonzalo weaken from hurricane to tropical storm as it passes south of Puerto Rico?
Dry air and shear.
Gonzalo took a big gulp of dry air last night, disrupting the tiny core that was developing. West side is pretty empty, deep convection has waned some on the east, and a little run of convection to the NW of the center looks like an outflow boundary. So today will be about working that dry air out of the center.
2
Posted on 7/23/20 at 8:56 am to Duke
Yeah, Gonzalo doesn't look nearly as good on satellite this morning as it did last night. Convection is far less uniform and is pretty disorganized. Gonzalo will probably be a textbook example of how a tropical system requires more than just warm SSTs to make it.
Posted on 7/23/20 at 8:57 am to Duke
Douglas RI 
The weather boards are covered in jizz
The weather boards are covered in jizz
Posted on 7/23/20 at 8:58 am to Roll Tide Ravens
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Douglas is now a healthy looking category 3 hurricane, with max sustained winds of 120mph. It should weaken significantly before reaching Hawaii as it moves into cooler waters.
Posted on 7/23/20 at 9:01 am to Cosmo
quote:
Cosmo
Why do you make it sound so bad to talk about about hurricanes/weather? Some people just really enjoy talking about it. For some it's a hobby, for some it's how they make their living. It doesn't mean we are pulling for catastrophic impacts to life and property.
You're constantly in these threads chirping about people who enjoy weather, but you contribute nothing of even the slightest bit of substance or importance to the thread.
This post was edited on 7/23/20 at 9:03 am
Posted on 7/23/20 at 9:06 am to Cosmo
quote:
Yeah, Gonzalo doesn't look nearly as good on satellite this morning as it did last night. Convection is far less uniform and is pretty disorganized. Gonzalo will probably be a textbook example of how a tropical system requires more than just warm SSTs to make it.
Small cores need everything to go right and last night did not. Dry air is especially effective at countering the warm water effects.
quote:
Douglas RI
The weather boards are covered in jizz
With no typhoon action and the Atlantic slopfest so far this year, some EPac RI means
Posted on 7/23/20 at 9:22 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Why do you make it sound so bad to talk about about hurricanes/weather?
Im not
But there are other weather boards where people get depressed when storms weaken, weird thing. They deserve to be ridiculed
This post was edited on 7/23/20 at 9:23 am
Posted on 7/23/20 at 9:38 am to Roll Tide Ravens
something Levi said in last night's video really interested me
when he was talking about 91L/TD8... he talked about "priming the atmosphere" for storm development... and that the fact the atmosphere in the Gulf wasn't "primed"...essentially the moisture level in the air wasn't significant enough even though the Gulf is well warm enough
so the system would fire off some storms... but then they'd quickly collapse... and that cycle would happen a number of times as the developing cyclone itself "primes the atmosphere" so it can develop and grow
that was really super interesting to me
when he was talking about 91L/TD8... he talked about "priming the atmosphere" for storm development... and that the fact the atmosphere in the Gulf wasn't "primed"...essentially the moisture level in the air wasn't significant enough even though the Gulf is well warm enough
so the system would fire off some storms... but then they'd quickly collapse... and that cycle would happen a number of times as the developing cyclone itself "primes the atmosphere" so it can develop and grow
that was really super interesting to me
This post was edited on 7/23/20 at 9:44 am
Posted on 7/23/20 at 9:46 am to Cosmo
Why don’t you go to those other weather boards you speak of and shame them there?
Posted on 7/23/20 at 9:59 am to BPTiger
no, feel free to ignore me if i annoy you
Posted on 7/23/20 at 9:59 am to rt3
quote:
when he was talking about 91L/TD8... he talked about "priming the atmosphere" for storm development... and that the fact the atmosphere in the Gulf wasn't "primed"...essentially the moisture level in the air wasn't significant enough even though the Gulf is well warm enough
The surface layer is always moist above the gulf water but just above can be a different story as we've seen quite a bit in the past.
A tropical cyclone at it's most basic is taking heat from the condensation of water vapor and turning it into wind. Dry air in its environment means that heat energy goes back into the evaporating water and stops the process. That water vapor though has been gifted to the environment and moistens it up. Do that enough, and the evaporation wont be as much of a problem and more of that heat can go to making winds.
Another way to think about it is an AC. The indoor unit is an evaporator and takes heat from the environment to evaporate the fluid inside and cools your air. The outdoor unit is a condenser which releases that energy to the environment as the fluid gets into liquid form. A hurricane feeds on that warm energy but get dry air in there and the cooling process happens.
quote:
that was really super interesting to me
Posted on 7/23/20 at 9:59 am to Cosmo
This thing headed to Texas probably has those other boards cutting diamonds.
Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:01 am to The Boat
Saw Alex Wilson while flipping channels yesterday. She was looking thiccc
Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:05 am to Jake88
quote:
Why does Gonzalo weaken from hurricane to tropical storm as it passes south of Puerto Rico?
Expecting mid level shear to pull the center away from the upper level causing it to weaken because it won’t remain vertically stacked
Right now it looks like it won’t hold together long enough to reach the gulf
Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:08 am to RetiredSaintsLsuFan
Gulf looks angry today
Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:11 am to deltaland
quote:
Right now it looks like it won’t hold together long enough to reach the gulf
Just an observation and not pointed at you or anyone here in particular, but I think it's funny that every time models show a hurricane weakening and dissipating into the gulf, people get such a relief and even meteorologists are fast to point that out in an attempt to downplay it, almost as if models show it weakening are gospel.
But let models show a cat 3 entering the gulf and everyone will sound like a broken record, saying "no need to panic, this will likely change".
Models showing weakening are taken as 100% but models showing potential catastrophe are almost never correct "this far out". Weakening models this far out are almost just as unreliable as those showing strengthening and potential danger. If conditions can change for the better then they can change for the worse, too.
Just an interesting observation that, again, is not directed towards anyone in particular.
This post was edited on 7/23/20 at 10:13 am
Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:15 am to TDsngumbo
If this thing was doing what it’s doing right now and was near Cuba, things would be different... this thing is way to far out there for anyone(weather channel) to even start predicting doom and gloom.....
Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:16 am to fatboydave
Top of the morning to you all, recreational and professionals. I have nothing to add, but wanted to thank y'all for the time spent monitoring, I will return to silence for a bit until it gets a little nastier in the Atlantic and gulf.
Good day, Sirs.
Good day, Sirs.
Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:16 am to Duke
quote:
The surface layer is always moist above the gulf water but just above can be a different story as we've seen quite a bit in the past.
A tropical cyclone at it's most basic is taking heat from the condensation of water vapor and turning it into wind. Dry air in its environment means that heat energy goes back into the evaporating water and stops the process. That water vapor though has been gifted to the environment and moistens it up. Do that enough, and the evaporation wont be as much of a problem and more of that heat can go to making winds.
Another way to think about it is an AC. The indoor unit is an evaporator and takes heat from the environment to evaporate the fluid inside and cools your air. The outdoor unit is a condenser which releases that energy to the environment as the fluid gets into liquid form. A hurricane feeds on that warm energy but get dry air in there and the cooling process happens.
so if this were late March/April... and thus super cells/tornados... is this essentially the same as a "cap" in the atmosphere?
ETA: probably not... a "cap" is a temperature difference while the phenomenon I originally posted about is a moisture difference... I think
This post was edited on 7/23/20 at 10:23 am
Posted on 7/23/20 at 10:22 am to dukke v
quote:
If this thing was doing what it’s doing right now and was near Cuba, things would be different... this thing is way to far out there for anyone(weather channel) to even start predicting doom and gloom.....
That wasn't my point. My point is that if you watch all the local news (I don't watch TWC), they're all quick to point out that Gonzalo is forecast to fall apart by the time it gets to the Gulf and they say it's nothing to worry about.
However, if models showed him maintaining cat 2/3 status entering the Gulf, they would ALL point out that models are subject to change this far out and we can't put ANY confidence in them this far out. Blah, blah, blah, blah.
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