re: Tornado! Watch Issued for Most of Louisiana - Nocturnal Tornado Threat for Louisiana

If that is the day I’m thinking of they had several touchdown in south La. I know one in La Place and up near Convent we’re pretty strong ones.
Work made us go home at 10:30AM. I remember as I was driving home my radio and phone blew up with a warning alert of one supposedly near me. Scared the hell out of me

Yes I recall that.
What will make this different is it’ll most likely happen before it’s daylight which is pretty scary.

25 miles within a single point in the color area.
Hatch is for significant severe.

Mesoscale Discussion 1601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...parts of east to eastern Texas and far western
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 311914Z - 312145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage and intensity by
late afternoon across central into east-central Texas, continuing
into western Louisiana after 9-10 pm. Damaging winds will be
possible initially, with a couple tornadoes increasingly possible
through the night.

DISCUSSION...An axis of substantial moisture and instability
currently stretches from Deep South TX northward to an approaching
cold front. Lift is increasing across the region in association with
a leading shortwave trough, with an abrupt wind shift noted above
the surface at the DFX VWP. Lift is strongest where this feature
intersects the surface front, currently over central TX where a
cluster of elevated storms exists.

With time, storms should increase in intensity as they translate
southeastward. Severe wind is possible as storms become more linear
in a few hours. Veering winds above the surface will mitigate SRH
and tornado threat for western parts of the discussion area.
However, a tornado threat may eventually materialized over eastern
areas.

For southeastern TX into LA, early-day convection has left
relatively cool air across the Houston area where showers persist.
Area VWPs show marginally favorable wind profiles for supercells,
which should get better with time as both the low-level jet and
winds aloft increase. Here, effective SRH around 200-300 should
develop this evening. As a result, a few storms near the upper TX
coast toward southwest LA may become supercells, and a tornado
cannot be ruled out. In addition, a burst of new development may
occur immediately ahead of any approaching squall line from the
west, with tornado threat.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 27909677 28109731 28939769 29399780 30139795 30509783
30999724 31679630 32299555 32429471 32159399 31639361
31069329 30399313 29649332 29459427 29059493 28659554
28369617 28169637 27909677

quote:

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25 miles within a single point in the hatch area.

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The hatch indicates higher end (EF2+) tornado possibilities, the colors are for 25 miles from a given point.

I edited it didn't want people to get confused.

We were just informed of all of this. I hate bad weather. It's going to be a long night for me.

quote:

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We are on the phone with local NWS offices across south-central and eastern Texas and Louisiana coordinating the timing and specific locations for a forthcoming watch. Watch should be issued shortly.

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I need to know the timing of this shite ASAP...

When is this expected to be out of the BR area, around 9 or 10? Is it fast moving or will it linger?

First Tornado watch of the day.