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re: Tornado! Outbreak Underway New PDS Watch for South LA, MS, & AL

Posted on 12/9/22 at 5:04 pm to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19812 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 5:04 pm to
Thinking hasn't really changed. Coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere will be pouring down the Front Range into the Deep South as we head into Christmas.

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
54369 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 5:11 pm to
quote:

Did the latest GFS run just show a weaker than expected front for next Wednesday?

Not really, and Tuesday is the day you should be concerned with.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18946 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 5:17 pm to
Not really, and Tuesday is the day you should be concerned with.

It’s not the severe weather I’m referring to. It’s the temps on Thursday through the weekend that I want to be cold.

Looked warmer on the latest run.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
54369 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 5:25 pm to
Ehhh....it may have delayed the cold a bit this run, but not much. This isn't the front that will fully flip the switch, anyway. It will just bring in more seasonal temps.
This post was edited on 12/9/22 at 5:26 pm
Posted by Cowboyfan89
Member since Sep 2015
12718 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 6:19 pm to
The latest GFS run is the exact reason threads like this are silly--the 12z had low 30s in South Louisiana at 6 AM on the 23rd. The 18z has it in the 60s.

Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 7:13 pm to
That’s what an individual model does 14 days out from run to run. Doesn’t really mean much. A pattern flip is coming whether you like the heat or not
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
54369 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 7:22 pm to
quote:

The latest GFS run is the exact reason threads like this are silly--the 12z had low 30s in South Louisiana at 6 AM on the 23rd. The 18z has it in the 60s.

I didn't even go out that far because that isn't what the other guy asked about.
Posted by sledgehammer
SWLA
Member since Oct 2020
3385 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 7:26 pm to
Thanks for the update. I just finished removing the insulation around my pipes.
Posted by Cowboyfan89
Member since Sep 2015
12718 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 7:49 pm to
quote:

That’s what an individual model does 14 days out from run to run. Doesn’t really mean much. A pattern flip is coming whether you like the heat or not

Oh I would much prefer it to be cold and not 80 frickin degrees in December.



I was just saying the same thing that gets said in these types of threads during hurricane season--its way too early to be talking about what the weather will be two weeks from now.

Hell, the next run could have a snow-pocalypse...
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35629 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 7:52 pm to
quote:

The latest GFS run is the exact reason threads like this are silly--the 12z had low 30s in South Louisiana at 6 AM on the 23rd. The 18z has it in the 60s.


I dont care what the deterministic GFS shows at this point.

There is a ton of support for the large scale pattern that will force cold air SE along the front range and into the east.

Sometime near Christmas.

This is getting an ideal, or at least near ideal one, pattern for cold into the United States in the heart of winter.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
54369 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 8:19 pm to
The Euro is a believer. It brings the cold even earlier with highs in SE Louisiana struggling to get out of the mid-40s on the 17th-19th.

I look forward to the first thread bitching about it being too cold.

ETA: In the same time period it has North AL barely getting out of the 30s for a couple days.
This post was edited on 12/9/22 at 8:21 pm
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
203072 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 8:23 pm to
The 40’s ain’t shite… put on another sweatshirt…..
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 8:27 pm to
Facts. I want a real cold front- give me teens in SLA
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19812 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 8:34 pm to
quote:

I dont care what the deterministic GFS shows at this point.

There is a ton of support for the large scale pattern that will force cold air SE along the front range and into the east.

Sometime near Christmas.

This is getting an ideal, or at least near ideal one, pattern for cold into the United States in the heart of winter.



Let's see:

-WPO - check
-EPO - check
-NAO - check
-AO - check

Posted by Captain Want
Member since Nov 2009
2153 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 9:08 pm to
What kind of temperatures are we talking for south La?
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
43700 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 9:11 pm to
We are getting tornados for Christmas, frick me
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 9:17 pm to
Calm down
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
54369 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 9:23 pm to
quote:

We are getting tornados for Christmas, frick me

You may get them before Christmas.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19812 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 9:40 pm to
quote:

What kind of temperatures are we talking for south La?


Can't really say this far out, but it's not a huge stretch to mention Christmas '83.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90706 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 10:38 pm to
We need a winter weather bingo card
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