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Started By
Message
re: Tornado outbreak, 94 dead, Upwards of 100 unaccounted for search/rescue & cleanup ongoing
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:12 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:12 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
I went off but Was reminded graciously not to feed the trolls 
1
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:15 pm to Briella
I mean, pick your fricking battles. This ain't one worth fighting, nor one he will ever "win".
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:24 pm to LegendInMyMind
I want to know how good were the warnings before the tornado hit Mayfield? Were the weather services on top of it?
I guess when you have a tornado of this magnitude, there's not shite you can do. Going to the interior of the house ain't gonna do anything to protect you from an EF-4/5. The only way to survive is to be totally underground in a shelter which most people don't have.
I guess when you have a tornado of this magnitude, there's not shite you can do. Going to the interior of the house ain't gonna do anything to protect you from an EF-4/5. The only way to survive is to be totally underground in a shelter which most people don't have.
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:27 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:quote:
One of the most frustrating things is with how well this was predicted, there was still nothing people could do if they were in the direct path.
Yeah. Unfortunately, sometimes there are tornadoes that are just so violent that someone in the direct path can only survive if they’re underground.
yeah... Moore (x2), Joplin, Tuscaloosa, and this 1 probably all well qualify for that comment... some tornadoes you MUST have a rated safe room or underground
being in an interior bathroom or closet just won't cut it
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:27 pm to AUstar
quote:
want to know how good were the warnings before the tornado hit Mayfield? Were the weather services on top of it?
The warning that covered Mayfield was issued 20-25 minutes before it hit Mayfield.
Also, about two hours before it hit, the NWS in Paducah (which covers that area) issued a “special weather statement” noting the storm when it was in the Missouri boot heal and saying that it could impact those counties in western Kentucky if it held together.
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:29 pm to AUstar
quote:
I want to know how good were the warnings before the tornado hit Mayfield? Were the weather services on top of it?
Yes, they did well. Storm Prediction Center had discussions out 45-50 minutes before it hit Mayfield, and the warnings had a long lead time.
quote:
I guess when you have a tornado of this magnitude, there's not shite you can do.
Pretty much.
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:31 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
The warning that covered Mayfield was issued 20-25 minutes before it hit Mayfield.
Yeah, seems about normal for a warning. 20 minutes is enough time to get out of bed and get to a "safe space." Unfortunately, outside of a bunker, there was no safe space this time.
Also, I heard this tornado was on the ground for several hundred miles. Were they tracking it the whole time?
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:34 pm to AUstar
quote:
on the ground for several hundred miles
Hmm
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:36 pm to AUstar
Lead time was great. It almost always will be with long-track tornadoes that have radar presentation like that.
There are really only two options with a violent tornado like that:
-Underground or in a solid above-ground safe room.
-Getting out of the path of the tornado.
Sometimes, as with the Hackleburg/Phil Campbell EF5 on April 27, 2011, even underground isn't guaranteed safety. At least one underground shelter had the concrete slab top (still underground) pulled from the ground.
There are really only two options with a violent tornado like that:
-Underground or in a solid above-ground safe room.
-Getting out of the path of the tornado.
Sometimes, as with the Hackleburg/Phil Campbell EF5 on April 27, 2011, even underground isn't guaranteed safety. At least one underground shelter had the concrete slab top (still underground) pulled from the ground.
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:39 pm to AUstar
quote:
Also, I heard this tornado was on the ground for several hundred miles. Were they tracking it the whole time?
It had been “tornadic” (i.e., tornado warned and capable of producing a tornado) since well back into Arkansas. So, yes, it was tracked the entire time. Like
I said, NWS Paducah put out word a couple of hours before Mayfield was hit that those counties in western Kentucky could be impacted if the storm held together.
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:39 pm to AUstar
quote:
I want to know how good were the warnings before the tornado hit Mayfield? Were the weather services on top of it?
I guess when you have a tornado of this magnitude, there's not shite you can do. Going to the interior of the house ain't gonna do anything to protect you from an EF-4/5. The only way to survive is to be totally underground in a shelter which most people don't have.
a PDS tornado warning that 1st included the city of Mayfield was issued at 9:06 PM
tornado emergency for Mayfield was issued at 9:27 PM (issued right as the storm was entering Mayfield)
so the PDS warning was issued about 20 minutes before the storm's arrival into Mayfield
ETA: I got those times from looking at the warnings as they were posted to the NWS Paducah Twitter
This post was edited on 12/12/21 at 9:40 pm
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:40 pm to LegendInMyMind
I pulled this shot of the spike at Mayfield from a centered/floater radar video of the storms entire lifecycle and I feel bad for not remembering who put it together. I wanted to upload a gif of the whole thing, but it is entirely too big and would have to be split up into three or four gifs.
Reflectivity, Velocity, Correlation Coefficient, and Spectrum Width (I think):
Reflectivity, Velocity, Correlation Coefficient, and Spectrum Width (I think):
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:47 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Sometimes, as with the Hackleburg/Phil Campbell EF5 on April 27, 2011, even underground isn't guaranteed safety. At least one underground shelter had the concrete slab top (still underground) pulled from the ground.
Yeah I remember that day well. Town was utterly demolished -- probably worse than Mayfield. All that was left were slabs on the ground.
EF5's can exceed 300 mph. I don't suppose there is much of a way to "test" a shelter to survive conditions like that.
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:48 pm to LegendInMyMind
I had a number of radar grabs from the storm that caused the Mayfield tornado. I was posting them in real time, but I figured I would share them all in one spot now.
This was when it was near Jonesboro, AR.
Approaching Monette, AR, where the nursing home was hit.
Passing through Leachville, AR. Tornado still on the ground at this point.
Approaching I-55 near Hayti, MO in the Missouri boot heal.
Crossing the TN/KY state line.
Hitting Mayfield, KY.
Just after it passed through Mayfield. About as classic of a look as you’ll see on radar.
Just after it passed Benton, KY.
This was when it was near Jonesboro, AR.
Approaching Monette, AR, where the nursing home was hit.
Passing through Leachville, AR. Tornado still on the ground at this point.
Approaching I-55 near Hayti, MO in the Missouri boot heal.
Crossing the TN/KY state line.
Hitting Mayfield, KY.
Just after it passed through Mayfield. About as classic of a look as you’ll see on radar.
Just after it passed Benton, KY.
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:49 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Plus, the SPC had been warning about the Friday night potential at least 3 days out.
Everyone everywhere in the South should already have a plan of what to do in a tornadic event.
Truth be told, I didn't have any more than bathroom in center of house on first floor.
That's the room I and my family were in when the December 16 , 2000 tornado hit our house in Tuscaloosa.
Our house held up well considering, but had it been a full on EF5, it would have been game over.
Fortunately, for me, now I live in a home with a basement, so that is better. Even then, nothing ever would be 100% safe, except an underground storm shelter.
Everyone everywhere in the South should already have a plan of what to do in a tornadic event.
Truth be told, I didn't have any more than bathroom in center of house on first floor.
That's the room I and my family were in when the December 16 , 2000 tornado hit our house in Tuscaloosa.
Our house held up well considering, but had it been a full on EF5, it would have been game over.
Fortunately, for me, now I live in a home with a basement, so that is better. Even then, nothing ever would be 100% safe, except an underground storm shelter.
Posted on 12/12/21 at 9:52 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
Even then, nothing ever would be 100% safe, except an underground storm shelter.
Yep, unfortunately.
If you believe some of the unconfirmed stories that came from the Hackleburg/Phil Campbell tornado on 4/27/11, even underground may not be enough in the case of an extremely intense EF-5.
Posted on 12/12/21 at 10:05 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
What happened with that?
Posted on 12/12/21 at 10:08 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
NWS Nashville will be helping out Paducah in South Kentucky. They will lead the way on the surveys in the Fort Campbell/Pembroke area.
I am interested in this storm, in particular:
If any of you see surveys posted on Twitter for any of those towns or Todd County (I believe), please post them here. I'd appreciate it.
I am interested in this storm, in particular:
If any of you see surveys posted on Twitter for any of those towns or Todd County (I believe), please post them here. I'd appreciate it.
Posted on 12/12/21 at 10:09 pm to CCT
quote:
What happened with that?
A below-ground storm shelter with a significant concrete slab had the slab ripped from underground, off the top of the shelter by that EF5.
This post was edited on 12/12/21 at 10:15 pm
Posted on 12/12/21 at 10:14 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
Plus, the SPC had been warning about the Friday night potential at least 3 days out.
I started this thread when it hit the 3 day outlook. I debated starting it for a couple days prior to that. It just looked like a setup with high-end potential, and it had model support early on, unlike the couple potential events prior to it. It wasn't a slam-dunk from the time it hit the models by any means, but it had potential for a cold season event from the start.
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