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re: Tornado outbreak, 94 dead, Upwards of 100 unaccounted for search/rescue & cleanup ongoing

Posted on 12/11/21 at 5:53 pm to
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
31976 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 5:53 pm to
quote:

Has the NWS rated Mayfield yet?



quote:

NWS Weather Prediction Center
@NWSWPC

It will take days for the necessary surveys to be done by @NWSLittleRock, @NWSMemphis, @NWSStLouis, @NWSPaducah, @NWSLincolnIL, @NWSLouisville & others to determine the scope of the possible outbreak and the strength/path length of the tornadoes that touched down.
5:44 PM · Dec 11, 2021·


quote:

NWS Weather Prediction Center
@NWSWPC

The longest lived mesocyclone with numerous tornado warnings moved through multiple states, shown in this graphic by @ATXHarrisonTran & currently on wikipedia.


Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66279 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 5:57 pm to
This is from meteorologist Brandon Black (@backinblack_wx on Twitter) who, I believe is a NWS met in the Mobile market. I believe it is well said.

quote:

One last thing before I go work radar. You will likely hear “it hit without warning somewhere from someone whose lives potentially changed in a matter of seconds 2in the middle of the night 2 weeks before Christmas”. Before getting bent out of shape reflect how you would feel.


quote:

In the scale of a life time a tornado moving at 60 mph is almost nothing. In a thousand square mile outlook the odds even the largest tornado on record hits you is almost zero. No life altering event comes with warning. You don’t wake up and say todays the day I lose everything’s


quote:

Yes I know it’s frustrating to hear that but we are all grieving. People lost homes, possessions and loved ones in a matter of seconds. Mets are fighting the feeling of doing their job and still not being enough to do what they swore to do in protect life and property.


quote:

We are all grieving in the end. Don’t feel slighted by those comments. Try to understand they lost a lot and don’t know how to understand why them. Be there for them and help understand.


You baws around here who are looking to get into the public-service meteorology field, remember this. Take it to heart that it will always "Hit without warning....". You will always question whether you did enough. The one thing that I have learned on my short time on this rock is that Nature always wins. Every person you can save is a win against the greatest of adversaries. It is an endless battle; just do the best that you can. We appreciate it.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66279 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 5:58 pm to
Posted by DomincDecoco
of no fixed abode
Member since Oct 2018
11477 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:04 pm to
Amazing
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:07 pm to
All excellent points.

I'll add this, what are people supposed to do with the warnings with this baring down on you? The advice cant be "get in your car and run", because you just get a bunch of people in cars killed. Without a tornado room built in or a good basement, theres not much you can do.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66279 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:08 pm to
quote:

Here's a still image taken from a video that was recorded last night near Union City, TN. Look at how many tornadoes were on the ground at the same time. I've never seen anything like this before.

This video and pic would have likely been captured after the storm cycled at around 8:22pm. Union City would have been after that cycle on the approach to Mayfield. It would be interesting to see radar at that time. I don't believe I have any screenshots from that period.

ETA: If my memory is correct, the Tri-State Tornado was also likely a "tornado family".
This post was edited on 12/11/21 at 6:11 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:10 pm to
Also found out a WFO can go above EF3 based on their storm survey training but often prefer to bring in experts.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66279 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:13 pm to
quote:

Duke

Do you have any way to download/view GR2 data right now?
Posted by Pisco
Mayfield, Kentucky
Member since Dec 2019
4115 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:13 pm to
Update: Got the gas fireplace going so I have heat.

Lowe’s is up and running on their generator so went and got some stuff.

Went to stepdad’s mother’s house and took a hot shower, went and got fuel and a bite to eat (Penn Station) in Paducah.


I have video for you. It’s on Facebook under Ryan Piscatelle. Cut me some slack for the iPhone quality.


Official gofundme. Ignore others
This post was edited on 12/11/21 at 6:14 pm
Posted by MikeD
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
7866 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:14 pm to
quote:

She's a delivery driver and said the tornado tore the building's garage apart, so pretty much all of the delivery vans got lunched. Not sure what she's going to do...

Bright spot for her is that Amazon surely has excess vehicles available at other warehouses. And I would think Amazon will help out their employees.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:17 pm to
No but pretty sure I have a way to get another trial of Level2
Posted by footswitch
New Market
Member since Apr 2015
4436 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:18 pm to
Piscatelli glad to hear about necessities. Some folks take so much for granted.
I’ve got a cousin south of you and he watched his lawn chairs go up and away. He was so grateful for another day alive.
Godspeed folks. I’m heartbroken for the dead and their families.
Posted by Wishnitwas1998
where TN, MS, and AL meet
Member since Oct 2010
61640 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:22 pm to
quote:

If Spann happens to be asleep, on vacation, or tipsy from one too many margaritas at the local Mexican joint, y


Our pure James would NEVER do such a thing

The man is an example for us all
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66279 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:28 pm to
quote:

No but pretty sure I have a way to get another trial of Level2

I almost pulled the trigger the other day, but I'm 90% certain it would melt the laptop I currently have.
Posted by MikeD
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
7866 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:38 pm to
quote:

have video for you. It’s on Facebook under Ryan Piscatelle. Cut me some slack for the iPhone quality.


That is amazingly terrible damage.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
60660 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 6:40 pm to
quote:

Winter outbreaks are quite normal for the South. There was an F4 that hit Tuscaloosa back on December 16, 2000 as part of a 24-tornado outbreak. And, as has already been noted, there were a pair of F5 tornadoes that hit the United States in December of 1953 and 1957 respectively.


quote:

NWS Little Rock
@NWSLittleRock
As you are well aware, severe weather can occur any time of year in Arkansas.

However, did you know that of the ten biggest tornado outbreaks on record in the state, half have been in the secondary severe weather season (November through January)?


Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66279 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

I'll add this, what are people supposed to do with the warnings with this baring down on you? The advice cant be "get in your car and run",

I will say that I feel confident enough these days in my radar abilities to say that I will leave if given enough lead time. I do not under any circumstances believe that should be the guidance/suggestion for most tornadoes, however. Not everyone will survive violent tornadoes in a home above ground, but nearly everyone will die in a vehicle that is struck by such a tornado.

Know your plan, know your surroundings, know the storms in your area.

I have extended family who lived in Soso, MS. They left last year with a violent tornado bearing down on them. They had enough lead time to leave and lived in a relatively rural area. They were fine, their house was a total loss.

Evacuating is not the solution to every tornado. Most are survivable if you are in a well-built structure and practice appropriate safety measures. However, I 100% believe that, given enough lead time and given you aren't in a major city/metro, evacing is a viable option. That hinges strongly on one's own knowledge and situational awareness, though.

I do not believe that leaving should be the chosen guidance from the NWS and EMA offices.
Posted by Briella
Member since Nov 2021
257 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 7:05 pm to
Evacuating ahead of a tornado is a personal decision and we are not close to the lead time for the general public to evac, plus imagine the grid lock. Example in El Reno 2013 Mike “+/- EF3” Morgan decided to tell people in the OKC metro to evacuate ahead of the tornado, all they found was traffic. Not to mention strong tornadoes hook right sometimes, and guess what happened. He told people to drive South on 44, and the tornado, which was already moving erratically, hooked southward.

That being said, if I were in the path of the tornado last night that had THAT much lead time and with my meteorological knowledge, I would’ve evacuated.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 7:11 pm to
quote:


I will say that I feel confident enough these days in my radar abilities to say that I will leave if given enough lead time


I feel confident you'd make the right calls too. You are not the general public though. I half thought about telling that Bama baw to run last night, but turns out he could have easily run into trouble and was fine at home.

And we're talking about tornado emergency, got debris lofted in the air, obvious violent tornados. The kind Im not sure a well built structure survives or not.

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66279 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 7:11 pm to
quote:

Example in El Reno 2013 Mike “+/- EF3” Morgan decided to tell people in the OKC metro to evacuate ahead of the tornado, all they found was traffic. Not to mention strong tornadoes hook right sometimes, and guess what happened. He told people to drive South on 44, and the tornado, which was already moving erratically, hooked southward.

Have you watched Skip Talbott's two videos analyzing El Reno? He covers all of this in those videos, particularly the second, updated video.
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