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Started By
Message
re: Tornado! Flash Flood Watch & Warnings
Posted on 5/3/17 at 12:45 am to rt3
Posted on 5/3/17 at 12:45 am to rt3
All of LA in the enhanced category now. The SPC outlook isn't updated on their page yet, but the graphic is out:
quote:
How far northeast of coastal areas, into the lower Mississippi
Valley, this boundary is able to develop during the day remains one
point of uncertainty, and categorical and probabilistic lines have
been drawn to account for this uncertainty. Tornado and severe wind
probabilities could still be increased in subsequent outlooks,
focused within at least a narrow corridor along this boundary, once
it has begun to develop and can be better evaluated.
Depending on the still uncertain warm sector convective evolution,
given the forecast track of the surface low, it may not be out of
the question that organized strong/severe storms could impact areas
as far northeast as the Tennessee Valley by late tonight.
Additional strong/severe storm development is possible along/ahead
of the southward advancing cold front, across mid and lower Texas
coastal areas.
This post was edited on 5/3/17 at 12:52 am
1
Posted on 5/3/17 at 12:48 am to slackster
Not a good day for protesting. Looks like Baton Rouge will start getting weather in about 10 hours.
Posted on 5/3/17 at 5:58 am to member12
Updated 9z HRRR run - through 2AM Thursday morning:
Total Rainfall estimate:
6z NAM - through 5AM Thursday morning:
Total Rainfall estimate:
Total Rainfall estimate:
6z NAM - through 5AM Thursday morning:
Total Rainfall estimate:
Posted on 5/3/17 at 6:25 am to rds dc
Why do you have the Thursday outlook posted?
Posted on 5/3/17 at 6:44 am to Strannix
quote:
Why do you have the Thursday outlook posted?
Most of these graphics are automatically updated. If he had the two day outlook posted, it will continue to move out two days as the week progresses.
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:05 am to slackster
1st wave of storms moving in
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:07 am to rds dc
Today's going to suck :(
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:08 am to rds dc
Looks like the protestors do not have to work today due to bad weather.
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:08 am to rds dc
Tornado watch possibly coming soon:
Mesoscale Discussion 0635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 AM CDT Wed May 03 2017
Areas affected...Southeast TX and southern LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 031204Z - 031330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...WW issuance is likely within the hour. Storms will
continue to increase in intensity (as observed with ongoing activity
north of HOU and across southwest LA at 12Z) and coverage this
morning.
DISCUSSION...A couple of storms have developed and intensified
across southeast TX (near and north of the Houston metro), and
moving onshore the southwest LA coastal region from the northwest
Gulf of Mexico per trends in mosaic radar imagery. Although overall
storm coverage is limited at this time, observational data indicated
the storms that have formed have developed strong updrafts (some
with weak low- to mid-level rotation and rapidly cooling cloud tops
to 50,000+ ft.).
Early morning surface analyses showed a warm front advancing north
across southeast TX and approaching the LA coast with storms thus
far developing near this front. Rich low-level moisture was located
across the warm sector (dew points into the lower 70s). This
combined with the presence of steep midlevel lapse rates (exceeding
8 C/km) per objective analyses and 12Z soundings will continue to
contribute to a destabilizing air mass from south to north and
MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg this morning.
Meanwhile, water-vapor imagery showed an eastward-moving midlevel
shortwave trough in south-central to southeast TX as 700-mb winds
have veered to westerly at SJT/DRT and EWX with the passage of this
trough. Forcing for ascent with this trough and within the exit
region of an accompanying 50-55 kt westerly 500-mb jet will support
further thunderstorm development this morning across southeast TX
into southwest LA. The favorable thermodynamics and strong
low-level (increasing SRH values) and deep-layer shear (vertically
veering winds) will favor organized storms, with hail as the initial
threat. However, the ongoing reduction of inhibition will allow for
storms to become surface based this morning with additional
severe-weather hazards (including damaging winds and a tornado
threat).
..Peters/Guyer.. 05/03/2017
Mesoscale Discussion 0635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 AM CDT Wed May 03 2017
Areas affected...Southeast TX and southern LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 031204Z - 031330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...WW issuance is likely within the hour. Storms will
continue to increase in intensity (as observed with ongoing activity
north of HOU and across southwest LA at 12Z) and coverage this
morning.
DISCUSSION...A couple of storms have developed and intensified
across southeast TX (near and north of the Houston metro), and
moving onshore the southwest LA coastal region from the northwest
Gulf of Mexico per trends in mosaic radar imagery. Although overall
storm coverage is limited at this time, observational data indicated
the storms that have formed have developed strong updrafts (some
with weak low- to mid-level rotation and rapidly cooling cloud tops
to 50,000+ ft.).
Early morning surface analyses showed a warm front advancing north
across southeast TX and approaching the LA coast with storms thus
far developing near this front. Rich low-level moisture was located
across the warm sector (dew points into the lower 70s). This
combined with the presence of steep midlevel lapse rates (exceeding
8 C/km) per objective analyses and 12Z soundings will continue to
contribute to a destabilizing air mass from south to north and
MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg this morning.
Meanwhile, water-vapor imagery showed an eastward-moving midlevel
shortwave trough in south-central to southeast TX as 700-mb winds
have veered to westerly at SJT/DRT and EWX with the passage of this
trough. Forcing for ascent with this trough and within the exit
region of an accompanying 50-55 kt westerly 500-mb jet will support
further thunderstorm development this morning across southeast TX
into southwest LA. The favorable thermodynamics and strong
low-level (increasing SRH values) and deep-layer shear (vertically
veering winds) will favor organized storms, with hail as the initial
threat. However, the ongoing reduction of inhibition will allow for
storms to become surface based this morning with additional
severe-weather hazards (including damaging winds and a tornado
threat).
..Peters/Guyer.. 05/03/2017
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:14 am to rds dc
Is there a "good time" today to travel east on I10? 
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:21 am to rds dc
Blerg
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:26 am to When in Rome
quote:
is there a "good time" today to travel east on I10?
From where?
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:27 am to When in Rome
Sure as hell flared up in the last two hours.
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:29 am to rds dc
Anyone here old enough to remember the May 3rd flood in New Orleans?
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:30 am to rds dc
quote:
Early morning storms
The HRRR seems to be all over this today.
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:36 am to rds dc
The SPC outlook discussion cracks me up. It's as if they go out of their way to go over our heads with the technical jargon.
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:37 am to rds dc
rds you are like the grim reaper of bad news for weather...
I am working remote here in DFW today lol.
I am working remote here in DFW today lol.
Posted on 5/3/17 at 7:40 am to slackster
Have to get from Dallas to the Ruston/Monroe area today. Leaving Dallas about 3:30 this afternoon. Any chance I can wait any of this out, or will I be driving right through it?
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