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The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code
Posted on 2/25/20 at 2:36 pm
Posted on 2/25/20 at 2:36 pm
Interesting story. Sure beats the Hell out of working for a living.
The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code
quote:
Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his story for the first time.
Horse racing is something like a religion in Hong Kong, whose citizens bet more than anyone else on Earth. Their cathedral is Happy Valley Racecourse, whose grassy oval track and floodlit stands are ringed at night by one of the sport’s grandest views: neon skyscrapers and neat stacks of high-rises, a constellation of illuminated windows, and beyond them, lush hills silhouetted in darkness.
On the evening of Nov. 6, 2001, all of Hong Kong was talking about the biggest jackpot the city had ever seen: at least HK$100 million (then about $13 million) for the winner of a single bet called the Triple Trio. The wager is a little like a trifecta of trifectas; it requires players to predict the top three horses, in any order, in three different heats. More than 10 million combinations are possible. When no one picks correctly, the prize money rolls over to the next set of races. That balmy November night, the pot had gone unclaimed six times over. About a million people placed a bet—equivalent to 1 in 7 city residents.
At Happy Valley’s ground level, young women in beer tents passed foamy pitchers to laughing expats, while the local Chinese, for whom gambling is a more serious affair, clutched racing newspapers and leaned over the handrails. At the crack of the starter’s pistol, the announcer’s voice rang out over loudspeakers: “Last leg of the Triple Trio,” he shouted in Australian-accented English, “and away they go!”
The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code
Posted on 2/25/20 at 2:38 pm to SavageOrangeJug
Racing in Hong Kong is pretty fun to watch.
Posted on 2/25/20 at 2:41 pm to Aspercel
quote:These dudes cracked it and made millions. Nearly a billion.
Racing in Hong Kong is pretty fun to watch.
Posted on 2/25/20 at 2:58 pm to SavageOrangeJug
So what is the secret?
Posted on 2/25/20 at 3:00 pm to SavageOrangeJug
Always bet on the nag. Nag's never lose.
Posted on 2/25/20 at 3:03 pm to HDAU
My dad’s good friend back in the day had the inside scoop on horse races in Hot Springs because his friend worked for mobster Meyer Lansky (Bugsy Siegel’s friend). Races were fixed and my dad’s friend told him who was going to win many times. He mad a decent chunk, he was in college and didn’t have much to bet but it funded his beer money plus some
Posted on 2/25/20 at 3:04 pm to HDAU
quote:
So what is the secret?
Algorithms.
Posted on 2/25/20 at 3:19 pm to deltaland
quote:
Races were fixed and my dad’s friend told him who was going to win many times. He mad a decent chunk, he was in college and didn’t have much to bet but it funded his beer money
The guy knew who was going to win fixed races and the best he could do was fund his college drinking habit?
Posted on 2/25/20 at 3:21 pm to SavageOrangeJug
I have strange feeling he isn't allowed to bet anymore.
It’s like the few people that have figured out casino games and tables. As soon as casinos figured out what they could do, they were banned from the casinos.
Gambling institutes aren’t cool with giving money away
It’s like the few people that have figured out casino games and tables. As soon as casinos figured out what they could do, they were banned from the casinos.
Gambling institutes aren’t cool with giving money away
Posted on 2/25/20 at 3:23 pm to FulshearTiger
quote:
The guy knew who was going to win fixed races and the best he could do was fund his college drinking habit?
I was thinking the same thing.
You give me 4 years at the track with the winners in advance.
My children and grandchildren will never have to work.
Posted on 2/25/20 at 3:23 pm to kywildcatfanone
quote:I bet my money on a bob-tailed nag. Somebody bet on the gray.
Always bet on the nag.
Posted on 2/25/20 at 3:48 pm to SavageOrangeJug
Good read. Thx for posting.
Posted on 2/25/20 at 3:59 pm to SavageOrangeJug
So why didn’t they claim the $16 Mill ticket?
Posted on 2/25/20 at 4:39 pm to SavageOrangeJug
His mother was a mudder.
Posted on 2/25/20 at 4:45 pm to SavageOrangeJug
There is no way to figure out how horse races will end unless they are fixed. There are factors that you can't plug into an algorithm.
Someone told me "Don't ever bet a lot of money on a sport in which a hopped up jockey is riding a hopped up horse"..
At least not at Evangeline Downs. They race horses that look like they found behind the levee..
Someone told me "Don't ever bet a lot of money on a sport in which a hopped up jockey is riding a hopped up horse"..
At least not at Evangeline Downs. They race horses that look like they found behind the levee..
Posted on 2/25/20 at 4:49 pm to SavageOrangeJug
please take my picture down
Posted on 2/25/20 at 4:52 pm to OweO
quote:
There is no way to figure out how horse races will end unless they are fixed.
that isnt true
quote:
There are factors that you can't plug into an algorithm.
they print an informative packet with past racing performances, descriptions of the horse's trip, times and rated speed and pace scores from a third party source
quote:
Don't ever bet a lot of money on a sport in which a hopped up jockey is riding a hopped up horse"..
At least not at Evangeline Downs.
i have no defence for this claim. i find new york racing to be the most legit. evd can burn down
Posted on 2/25/20 at 4:56 pm to OweO
idk if Evangeline is so much rigged as it is just older horses that arent as good as what you would see on tv for the kentucky derby.
they have much higher variance, slower pace, and slower speed. the jockeys and trainers arent really created equal either at evd.
colby j hernandez or die
they have much higher variance, slower pace, and slower speed. the jockeys and trainers arent really created equal either at evd.
colby j hernandez or die
Posted on 2/25/20 at 4:57 pm to Winston Cup
It’s not all older horses
What it is is a lot of cheap speed.
Plenty of 2 and 3 year olds running, mostly in state bred claimers, though.
And the leading trainer as far as races won is there at Evd.
Cheating bastard
What it is is a lot of cheap speed.
Plenty of 2 and 3 year olds running, mostly in state bred claimers, though.
And the leading trainer as far as races won is there at Evd.
Cheating bastard
This post was edited on 2/25/20 at 4:59 pm
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