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re: The CDC has quietly updated survival rates if infected with covid
Posted on 9/24/20 at 12:37 pm to Korkstand
Posted on 9/24/20 at 12:37 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Let's just be real about it and get back to normal life.
How can you be "real" about it when the Pro-panic people keep getting caught in outright lies?
We will NEVER know the REAL number of deaths because they keep getting caught LYING about it.
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Posted on 9/24/20 at 12:45 pm to Korkstand
Another point that needs to be taken into account in regards to the FLU vs Covid debate is how many FLU tests are we giving after death? Because we know they are doing plenty of after death Covid testing, hell George Floyd had Covid when he died. We could add those FLU deaths to the numbers like we do with Covid and that would increase the flu deaths.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 12:48 pm to OweO
quote:Guess what? If your mom (in her early 70's) catches ANY type of virus or is sick because of ANYTHING - she will have the same reaction. She will not just "bounce back" like you or I would.
My mom had COVID. about 2 months ago and was really sick for a little over 2 weeks. She is in her early 70s, but it good health, however; she has not completely recovered.
Nobody is saying that Covid 19 is fake. It's a real virus. What's fake is the response to it. There have been so many greedy sons of bitches dipping their hands into the idea of a pandemic behind a freaking virus that it's not even funny. From politicians to the health industry. Everybody wants their money. The left wants their money and their power. The people who lost their jobs and are satisfied being unemployed lazy sacks of shite rather than getting up and finding something else want their money (that's not a knock on all the unemployed). The hospitals want their money by declaring any death or any ailment as "Covid related". A lot of people want their money right now. And us poor bastards who have been working the whole time and simply want to get back to normal like we should have a month ago are tired of this nonsense. As soon as the state lifts the mask mandate, you can lick my hairy arse when you see me and ask me why I don't have a mask on. I'm about at that point right now anyway, even with a mask mandate in effect.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 12:52 pm to Korkstand
quote:
quote:
quote:
The actual covid deaths are very, very close to what is reported (200k give or take). I base this on the all-cause total deaths for the year, which are more than 200k above expected.
I’ve been looking for this data. Where did you find it?
I don't know if there's a better/easier source, but I get it from this page, about 3/4 down the page there is a flu mortality chart. You can click "View Chart Data" to get a direct link to the most recent data in CSV format. It breaks out P&I from all deaths, but there is still an all deaths column. Load it up into a spreadsheet and calculate whatever you want. Note: the most recent 6-8 weeks of data is always incomplete. In other words, the current data has up to week 37, but only up to week 32 or so is even reasonably complete.
The data you linked shows P&I deaths through week 32 2020 are about 70k above the average of the previous 6 years.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 12:59 pm to STATigerFan
quote:We don't typically administer flu tests after death afaik, but we certainly do estimate them after the fact. About 3/4 of all flu-related deaths that we end up counting each year were never confirmed as flu via testing. We basically just look at how many people died vs what was expected, and attribute the excess to flu. Obviously there's more to it than that, but that is essentially the way we arrive at the number for flu.
Another point that needs to be taken into account in regards to the FLU vs Covid debate is how many FLU tests are we giving after death? Because we know they are doing plenty of after death Covid testing, hell George Floyd had Covid when he died. We could add those FLU deaths to the numbers like we do with Covid and that would increase the flu deaths.
Clearly we are being MUCH more pro-active about testing for covid than we typically do for flu, so we are basically cross-checking positive covid tests and deaths against excess deaths on a weekly basis in near-realtime rather than spending 2 years after the fact on estimating like we do for flu. Also I would imagine flu tests are given in tandem with covid tests (maybe?), so we will likely capture a higher percentage of flu cases via testing this year than we normally do.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 1:11 pm to Korkstand
As far as I know flu deaths are down for the year so I doubt we are testing for both flu and Covid at the same time. I know the 2 times I was tested for Covid (both negative and required by work) they didn’t give me a flu test.
We also don’t test asymptomatic people for flu either, so it is skewed in that way too. I’ve not heard of people being asymptomatic flu carriers (maybe I’m out of the loop) but it has to be possible.
We also don’t test asymptomatic people for flu either, so it is skewed in that way too. I’ve not heard of people being asymptomatic flu carriers (maybe I’m out of the loop) but it has to be possible.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 1:12 pm to GRTiger
quote:Right, and I believe some of the I cases are also included in the P figures. I'm pretty sure that data is just based on which death certificates mention either flu or pneumonia, and some of course mention both.
The data you linked shows P&I deaths through week 32 2020 are about 70k above the average of the previous 6 years.
So as you see there, only about 25% of flu cases are typically recorded on death certs. You see numbers like 7k for the year, and we end up estimating something like 30k. I'd imagine the pneumonia figures are used in doing that estimation, along with the total death figures and excess. A lot of the pneumonia cases are of course due to other conditions, mostly chronic respiratory issues which are estimated separately.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 1:47 pm to STATigerFan
quote:
We also don’t test asymptomatic people for flu either, so it is skewed in that way too. I’ve not heard of people being asymptomatic flu carriers (maybe I’m out of the loop) but it has to be possible.
Not everyone that has the flu goes to get tested either. They suck it up, down some Dayquil, and carry on. I've never officially had the flu. I've also never had a flu test. But I've been sick 2 or 3 times with something that was probably the flu.
I seriously don't understand what people's fetish is with testing in general. If it's going to change the treatment, sure, but if not, who cares what name is associated with the icky?
Posted on 9/24/20 at 2:07 pm to TigerMomma4
quote:Yeah, typically 50% of symptomatic flu cases don't even see a doctor, and many of those who do see a doc don't even get tested. It's just assumed to be flu, because what else?
Not everyone that has the flu goes to get tested either. They suck it up, down some Dayquil, and carry on. I've never officially had the flu. I've also never had a flu test. But I've been sick 2 or 3 times with something that was probably the flu.
quote:Exactly. I mean it's good to track case counts just to have data, but it should absolutely not be used to shape policy if serious cases, hospitalizations, and deaths don't follow.
I seriously don't understand what people's fetish is with testing in general. If it's going to change the treatment, sure, but if not, who cares what name is associated with the icky?
Posted on 9/24/20 at 4:15 pm to lagallifrey
quote:
Yes, with the false assumption that all or nearly all excess deaths are due to Covid. We know this is not true, as deaths from other causes are up due to the lockdown.
The excess deaths are due to government response to covid and covid. Politics is too intertwined in this fiasco for any rational person to trust reported statistics.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 9:08 am to LoneStar23
Bump in case people have yet to see the truth
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