re: Tejas Snow/Ice Storm: 2022 Edition (Wednesday Night and Thursday expected timing)

Exactly what I need. Door just closed on my flight so I'll check when I get home

If spirit posts a waiver take a dfw-fll flight on Wednesday to make sure you get out

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I rescheduled the first part of the flight for Wednesday afternoon. Better safe than sorry

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Good call. You wont regret it.

Thanks for the help!

Yeah, you right, today's runs are significantly different than yesterdays.

It hasn't changed on the models. rds thinks the models arent cooling down the above freezing layer aloft fast enough, and is showing ice when it really will be snow.

Its not an unreasonable idea, given winds should turn out of the north at that level when this image is shown and also precip falling through the level will help cool it some.

But the soundings remain pretty much saturated through that level, which would make the cooling less effective without some of the precip evaporating.

Its a really tricky forecast for DFW/Waco/Austin/SA

So much depends on how far SW the main upper shortwave/upper low tracks. Models now have it digging to around or north of El Paso. If it buries itself down deeper into Mexico then things change a good bit. If it does dig a bit deeper into Mexico you will see near blizzard conditions locally across North Texas but if it tracks north of EP then N TX may be a freezing rain and sleet mess. Us in East Texas could see a very nasty ice storm per the current GFS track. Midday Thu right now shows low 20s with heavy rain. Pwats over 1 with temps in 20s is pretty wild.

I think that qualifies as universal agreement:

Getting the trough dig farther and more cooling should happen on the northern extent.

I'll ride with 4, 9, 10

12, 17, 20 as consolations

DAL-ATL-MSY, 41m connection in ATL. Was already gonna be tight but I guess we'll see how well Delta at DAL handles IRROPS.