re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley

Link?

Steve Caparotta, Ph.D.
@SteveWAFB
·
16m
JUST IN: Grand Isle issues evacuation orders in advance of #Cristobal.

- Mandatory evac of boats/campers began at Noon today

- Voluntary evac of residents began at Noon today

- Mandatory evac of residents at 6 AM Saturday

Steve Caparotta retweeted it

Cristobal back to a Tropical Storm again.

...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

1:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 5
Location: 20.5°N 89.8°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

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Between 5"-7" over much of the BR area. That's a lot for 24-36 hours while a steady south wind keeps the Amite up.


Eh, that's about a 2-year 24-hour storm. Not that big of a deal even ith a somewhat backed up Amite. It'll flood the usual low areas, but nothing catastrophic.

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I didn't say it would be catastrophic. The mention of the Amite River flooding nowadays makes everyone immediately think of 2016 but there are countless other types of flooding that occurs on that river. A 2 foot storm surge, steady 30-40 mph southerly winds, and 5"-7" of rainfall over the entire Amite basin trying to drain at the same time will result in the river rising to at least minor flood stage. Minor flood stage results in my road becoming partially impassable so I'm paying attention.

What site has the line for the projected path once it hits land?

The one that looks like google earth with a yellow path line.

max sustained 40 mph lmao

Euro in and it's very similar to GFS. It's a little slower (like 6 hours) and a little weaker at 992. Otherwise coming in about Grand Isle/Terrebonne.





Keeps the dry air out of it's moisture blob.

Not what I would call an organized center, more like multiple small vortexes dancing around the larger center.

Brings 45-50 mph gusts for most of us, except for a notable section of 70+ gusts over in coastal Miss. Something to be aware of because both GFS/Euro put the highest wind gusts along the Mississippi coast.

4-5" of rain south of the lake. 2" or so for BR. Puts 8-10" along the Miss coast, which follows the wind gust maxes. Looks like both want to set up a strong band that would cut across Mississippi and the Northshore.

Both the Euro and GFS produce a similar result with a similar landfall in under 3 days which is about what the NHC has been calling for all along. Not a lot left but the waiting and watching.

EURO shows a slight pressure drop right before landfall.

If I’m not mistaken, even a small amount of strengthening at landfall could effect the wind field and impact more so than a slightly more powerful, non strengthening storm with a steady pressure at landfall.

Why two months