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re: Southeast and Midwest Severe Weather Outbreak & Flood Event: April 2-7, 2025
Posted on 4/3/25 at 8:49 am to chinhoyang
Posted on 4/3/25 at 8:49 am to chinhoyang
What AI says:
No Overall Increase in Frequency:
While it might feel like there are more tornadoes, the annual frequency of tornadoes in the U.S. has remained relatively constant over the long term.
More Tornado Outbreaks:
There's evidence that tornado outbreaks, or periods with multiple tornadoes, are becoming more common.
Shifting Tornado Alley:
Tornado activity is shifting geographically, with some regions traditionally known as "Tornado Alley" (like the Great Plains) experiencing a decrease in tornado frequency, while other areas, particularly in the Southeast and parts of the Midwest, are seeing an increase.
Clustering of Tornadoes:
Tornadoes are becoming more clustered, meaning there are fewer days with tornadoes, but on the days when they do occur, there are more tornadoes happening in rapid succession.
Potential Climate Change Link
:
Some research suggests a potential link between climate change and these changes in tornado patterns, with a warmer climate potentially leading to more conditions favorable for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. However, it's still difficult to definitively attribute these changes solely to climate change.
Off-season tornadoes:
Research suggests there is a greater risk of more off-season tornadoes in a warmer future climate, meaning more tornadic activity at a time of year when people are least expecting it.
No Overall Increase in Frequency:
While it might feel like there are more tornadoes, the annual frequency of tornadoes in the U.S. has remained relatively constant over the long term.
More Tornado Outbreaks:
There's evidence that tornado outbreaks, or periods with multiple tornadoes, are becoming more common.
Shifting Tornado Alley:
Tornado activity is shifting geographically, with some regions traditionally known as "Tornado Alley" (like the Great Plains) experiencing a decrease in tornado frequency, while other areas, particularly in the Southeast and parts of the Midwest, are seeing an increase.
Clustering of Tornadoes:
Tornadoes are becoming more clustered, meaning there are fewer days with tornadoes, but on the days when they do occur, there are more tornadoes happening in rapid succession.
Potential Climate Change Link
:
Some research suggests a potential link between climate change and these changes in tornado patterns, with a warmer climate potentially leading to more conditions favorable for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. However, it's still difficult to definitively attribute these changes solely to climate change.
Off-season tornadoes:
Research suggests there is a greater risk of more off-season tornadoes in a warmer future climate, meaning more tornadic activity at a time of year when people are least expecting it.
1
Posted on 4/3/25 at 8:50 am to tide06
quote:I don't give a rats arse who agrees with me, I know I'm not dealing with anyone who will ever be accused of inventing the Rubik's cube here.
Then wouldn’t everyone be better off if you go hang out with them?
Posted on 4/3/25 at 8:51 am to TT9
quote:
I don't give a rats arse who agrees with me
Yea, you downvoting every post against you definitely shows how little you care.
How about you just leave the thread since it's stickied and most people don't want to wade through your bullshite in a thread meant to get information out?
This post was edited on 4/3/25 at 8:53 am
Posted on 4/3/25 at 8:53 am to TT9
quote:
it's called common sense
No, if you used common sense you would realize the technology is what is creating your impression of an increase. Take last night - thanks to fancy radar, we got 4 separate tornado warnings, complete with sirens, in a 3 hour period. But... No tornado. Glad to have the warnings because you never know, but all the hoopla and attention with nothing to put in the record books (for my area). That was completely non-existent 50 years ago, it would have just been overnight storms. It doesn't indicate any increase in tornados.
Posted on 4/3/25 at 8:58 am to TT9
quote:
I don't give a rats arse who agrees with me, I know I'm not dealing with anyone who will ever be accused of inventing the Rubik's cube here.
If no one here agrees with you, you according to your own words don’t like them and they don’t like you why are you posting in this thread?
You're just running around throwing insults without justification and detracting from the focus of the conversation.
Wouldn’t it be better to spend your time elsewhere?
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:00 am to calcotron
Good to see this thread has been hijacked into a political discussion on the weather.
For OP, NWS is surveying in my area for tornado damage (my guess is it'll be an EF1 or EF2).
Some of the damage in the industrial park around the corner from us:
For OP, NWS is surveying in my area for tornado damage (my guess is it'll be an EF1 or EF2).
Some of the damage in the industrial park around the corner from us:
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:00 am to BluegrassBelle
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:01 am to chinhoyang
Recent study:
"A study published recently in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, by Vittorio A. Gensini of Northern Illinois University and Harold E. Brooks of the National Severe Storms Laboratory, looked into the possibility that tornado frequencies are changing across the United States. Their findings include a decrease in the traditional "Tornado Alley" of the Great Plains and an increase in the Southeast's "Dixie Alley". This study generated a fair amount of buzz, so we thought we'd briefly list out a few of the more important points mentioned in the study:
After removing non-meteorological factors, the annual frequency of U.S. tornadoes through the most reliable portions of the historical record has remained relatively constant.
Detecting spatial shifts in tornado frequency is challenging. Tornadoes are short-lived and affect very small geographical areas. Also, tornado reporting procedures have varied dramatically over the years and from one region to another.
The study used the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) to account for tornado frequency. STP is designed to highlight the existence of atmospheric ingredients favoring large storms capable of producing EF2-EF5 tornadoes, like what is typically seen in the Great Plains.
It should be noted that even if the atmosphere is supportive of tornadoes with the right winds, moisture, and instability, thunderstorms won't form without a strong enough trigger to spark them (like a cold front). The STP does not account for whether or not a trigger is present.
However, STP values correspond with tornado reports closely enough such that STP is a suitable index to use. STP is especially useful in January, February, March, May, and December.
The period analyzed in this study was from 1979 to 2017.
A significant upward trend in tornado frequency was found in portions of the Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast.
Both tornado reports and tornado environments indicate an increasing trend in portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky.
It should be kept in mind that STP is designed to evaluate environments favorable for large storms typical of the Great Plains, and not necessarily small spin-ups that we see in regions farther east.
Unfortunately, increases in tornado frequency in the American South juxtapose with a population that is especially vulnerable to tornadoes. The Southeast already represents a maximum in the occurrence of tornado casualties."
NWS Tornado Study
"A study published recently in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, by Vittorio A. Gensini of Northern Illinois University and Harold E. Brooks of the National Severe Storms Laboratory, looked into the possibility that tornado frequencies are changing across the United States. Their findings include a decrease in the traditional "Tornado Alley" of the Great Plains and an increase in the Southeast's "Dixie Alley". This study generated a fair amount of buzz, so we thought we'd briefly list out a few of the more important points mentioned in the study:
After removing non-meteorological factors, the annual frequency of U.S. tornadoes through the most reliable portions of the historical record has remained relatively constant.
Detecting spatial shifts in tornado frequency is challenging. Tornadoes are short-lived and affect very small geographical areas. Also, tornado reporting procedures have varied dramatically over the years and from one region to another.
The study used the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) to account for tornado frequency. STP is designed to highlight the existence of atmospheric ingredients favoring large storms capable of producing EF2-EF5 tornadoes, like what is typically seen in the Great Plains.
It should be noted that even if the atmosphere is supportive of tornadoes with the right winds, moisture, and instability, thunderstorms won't form without a strong enough trigger to spark them (like a cold front). The STP does not account for whether or not a trigger is present.
However, STP values correspond with tornado reports closely enough such that STP is a suitable index to use. STP is especially useful in January, February, March, May, and December.
The period analyzed in this study was from 1979 to 2017.
A significant upward trend in tornado frequency was found in portions of the Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast.
Both tornado reports and tornado environments indicate an increasing trend in portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky.
It should be kept in mind that STP is designed to evaluate environments favorable for large storms typical of the Great Plains, and not necessarily small spin-ups that we see in regions farther east.
Unfortunately, increases in tornado frequency in the American South juxtapose with a population that is especially vulnerable to tornadoes. The Southeast already represents a maximum in the occurrence of tornado casualties."
NWS Tornado Study
This post was edited on 4/3/25 at 9:02 am
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:03 am to TT9
quote:
yes, they're willfully uninformed.
Quit babbling. You simply repeat the same mantra over and over, without citing any factual basis for your premise.
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:04 am to TT9
quote:
I'm not brainwashed
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:11 am to chinhoyang
quote:
Good to see this thread has been hijacked into a political discussion on the weather.
It wouldn't be a tornado outbreak if there wasn't, but my money is on TT9 as the serial downvoter. Come at me!
We are only alive for a sliver of a climate sample. There was gnarly weather before my time, and there will be after my time.
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:13 am to TT9
quote:
Never said they haven't been happening forever, just saying they've gotten more frequent and violent.
That’s not the case either. We’ve been having violent tornadoes for as long as records have been kept. What has changed is that we understand them better and we have better technology to track to them. There were tornadoes in the past that went unaccounted for because they went through rural areas. With the inventing of Dual Pol radar, we know of just about every tornado that touches down.
You say that they are becoming more violent. If that is the case, why are we approaching 12 years since the last EF-5 tornado to occur in the United States? Shouldn’t EF-5 tornadoes be happening more frequently, or at least regularly, rather than there being over a decade since the last one?
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:14 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:20 am to CarolinaGamecock99
I would caution against looking at total number of tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings as a metric for how large a tornado outbreak turns out to be. There can be many warnings where a tornado does not occur. I think it is better to determine the scale after the fact when we can count up the total number of verifiable tornadoes that occurred.
Certainly this is a big severe weather outbreak, but I don’t think the total number of actual, verifiable tornadoes will be in the same ballpark as the 2011 Super Outbreak.
Certainly this is a big severe weather outbreak, but I don’t think the total number of actual, verifiable tornadoes will be in the same ballpark as the 2011 Super Outbreak.
This post was edited on 4/3/25 at 9:21 am
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:29 am to Sus-Scrofa
quote:
severe tornado warning
Huh?
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:32 am to TD422
quote:
Huh?
Something about the conditions being ripe for big tornadoes. He may have said strong. Enjoy your nitpicking!
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:37 am to Sus-Scrofa
quote:
nitpicking
Calm yer tits, Nancy. I'm just goofing around with you. Have a beer, smoke a bowl, whatever blows your skirt up!
This post was edited on 4/3/25 at 9:38 am
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:52 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Lake City, AR tornado damage.
Posted on 4/3/25 at 9:57 am to Roll Tide Ravens
How does 1 rate a car in the middle of a house?
I would personally rate that EF-OH frick
I would personally rate that EF-OH frick
Posted on 4/3/25 at 10:10 am to TT9
quote:
it's called common sense. I'm not brainwashed by right wing idiots like most here are. I listen to the people that actually study this stuff
Ummm this is comical. Do you realize that you’re arguing with people who actually study and research this stuff? Dumbass.
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