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Message
1
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:19 pm to PearlJam
quote:quote:No. It is either G2 or S1.
The next ball you pick is either G1, G2, or S1. Do you agree?
So if you picked G2 the next pick could be G2? Because go just implied that.
You’re first pick would be G1, G2, or Gmixed.
You’re second would be G1 or G2 whichever one you didn’t pick first or Smixed. Hence 3 possible since you don’t know which G you picked first.
This is an extremely simple concept. I can’t see why you can’t grasp this. There are 3 possible outcomes until you pick the second ball out.
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 2:20 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:19 pm to MorgusTheMagnificent
quote:
I’ll simplify for the window lickers:
Of the possible boxes in play (which there are 2).. 1 contains 100% silver balls. The other contains 100% gold balls.
The chances you pull a silver ball are 1:2 or 50%
Someone coming in this hot and this late has to be trolling.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:20 pm to PearlJam
quote:
No. It is either G2 or S1. There is only 1 ball left in the box.
what if you've already picked G2?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:21 pm to MorgusTheMagnificent
quote:
I’ll simplify for the window lickers:
Of the possible boxes in play (which there are 2).. 1 contains 100% silver balls. The other contains 100% gold balls.
The chances you pull a silver ball are 1:2 or 50%
How about this: There's two boxes. You've pulled a gold ball. Is it more likely you pulled a gold ball from a box with multiple gold balls in it, or the one gold ball from another box with no other gold balls? Common sense, which is more likely to you?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:21 pm to Sneaky__Sally
read from the beginning, then post your retraction when you're ready
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:22 pm to slackster
quote:That's fine, then it is either G1/2 or S1. But you have already picked one gold out of the box. There is only 1 ball remaining.
Why can't it be G1? We don't know which of the three gold balls we chose.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:22 pm to CptRusty
quote:
what if you've already picked G2?
PearlJam is saying it's either the OTHER gold ball or the silver ball. We're saying it's either G1, G2, OR S1. I'm not sure why he doesn't understand they're both correct.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:23 pm to PearlJam
quote:So... 3 possibilities is what you're saying?
it is either G1/2 or S1.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:23 pm to PearlJam
quote:
That's fine, then it is either G1/2 or S1. But you have already picked one gold out of the box. There is only 1 ball remaining.
Yes. The next ball we pick is one of three remaining, unknown, unpicked balls.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:23 pm to PearlJam
quote:
then it is either G1/2 or S1.
Good, you understand.
Now count those.
G1
G2
S1
1, 2, 3. 3 possible outcomes.
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:23 pm to slackster
quote:I understand the explanation, but it isn't factually accurate. G1 or G2 is in your hand or you are picking S1 out of the box. There aren't 3 possibilities at that point. Only 2, but one has better odds.
We're saying it's either G1, G2, OR S1. I'm not sure why he doesn't understand they're both correct.
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:23 pm to monkeybutt
quote:
This is posted after like 16 straight pages of solid analysis and explanations on why the answer is 67%
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:24 pm to monkeybutt
quote:
Is it more likely you pulled a gold ball from a box with multiple gold balls in it, or the one gold ball from another box with no other gold balls? Common sense, which is more likely to you?
Your logic is off.. let’s say you flip a coin and it lands tails 99 times in a row, what are the odds of the coin landing on tails on the 100th flip?
The answer is still 50%. This exercise is no different
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:25 pm to MorgusTheMagnificent
quote:
MorgusTheMagnificent
has to be trolling
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:25 pm to MorgusTheMagnificent
quote:
Your logic is off.. let’s say you flip a coin and it lands tails 99 times in a row, what are the odds of the coin landing on tails on the 100th flip?
The answer is still 50%. This exercise is no different
This exercise is different and if you can't see that then there's no helping you.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:25 pm to MorgusTheMagnificent
quote:No.
The answer is still 50%. This exercise is no different
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:25 pm to MorgusTheMagnificent
quote:
Your logic is off.. let’s say you flip a coin and it lands tails 99 times in a row, what are the odds of the coin landing on tails on the 100th flip?
The answer is still 50%. This exercise is no different
The comparison you’re looking for is what would be the odds of flipping tails 99 times in a row vs flipping tails on the 99th time.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:25 pm to MorgusTheMagnificent
quote:Just because two teams play in the superbowl does not mean they have an equal chance of being the one holding the trophy in the end.
Of the possible boxes in play (which there are 2).. 1 contains 100% silver balls. The other contains 100% gold balls.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:26 pm to PearlJam
quote:
There aren't 3 possibilities at that point.
OK... Why is the correct answer 2/3 ?
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