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re: Snow Tease for Baton Rouge (Saturday) UPDATE (1/20)

Posted on 1/20/22 at 3:54 pm to
Posted by lsufishnhunt
Member since Jun 2008
1044 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 3:54 pm to
Radar is showing a good bit of rain/moisture around Austin that doesn’t appear to be in the initial frames of these model runs….

Are the models under predicting available moisture?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71777 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:04 pm to
quote:

37.7 where I sit 3 hours away from BR which is at 39 right now.

I just looked at the NWS stations across the state.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71777 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:08 pm to
quote:

Are the models under predicting available moisture?

Not really. Both HRRR and NAM have shown that precip for a while now.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175868 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:10 pm to
quote:

Radar is showing a good bit of rain/moisture around Austin that doesn’t appear to be in the initial frames of these model runs….


That’s what’s we’re discussing right now in class
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
49202 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

That’s what’s we’re discussing right now in class

So should we even be paying attention to your posts? Because obviously you’re not paying attention in class by being on here. How much should we really be trusting you?
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
29006 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

So should we even be paying attention to your posts? Because obviously you’re not paying attention in class by being on here. How much should we really be trusting you?


Only person to trust on this thread is Peej. No one has a better track record.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
49202 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:18 pm to
That’s true. Has he made an appearance in this thread? I don’t believe I’ve seen him.


Or the usual threats to whip his arse by others in weather threads. Hopefully he stays warm in the mobile home and follows proper space heater safety recommendations.
This post was edited on 1/20/22 at 4:21 pm
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26044 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:24 pm to
quote:

So should we even be paying attention to your posts?


It depends. Would you trust The Boat for your weather needs if your life depended on it?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71777 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:26 pm to
Comparing the current radar to earlier HRRR and NAM runs. Just Reflectivity, I didn't do precip type, but both show mixed precip in the Austin area at this hour.




00z HRRR:


18z NAM


Pretty good as far as where and how much precip we are currently seeing.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71777 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:27 pm to
quote:

It depends. Would you trust The Boat for your weather needs if your life depended on it?

Woah! I feel like I've been here before....
Posted by jaytothen
Member since Jan 2020
8318 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:29 pm to
quote:

Hopefully he stays warm in the mobile home and follows proper space heater safety recommendations


That'll be hard to do with that giant hole Ida left in it.

Although it lessens the chances of carbon monoxide poisoning so that's a plus.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175868 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:29 pm to
HRRR has been moving the moisture over southeast La northward over the last 9 runs. Synoptically all the players are there but the models haven’t been producing the precipitation. Nws mets have been bitching about it.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175868 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:30 pm to
quote:

It depends. Would you trust The Boat for your weather needs if your life depended on it?

No doubt about it
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15271 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:35 pm to
slight warmup occurred in baton rouge, temps were hovering around 39 now they're around 40-41
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71777 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:36 pm to
Could those lower level winds have anything to do with keeping the precip farther South?
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10106 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:46 pm to
I cant find my keys, wife had to go get kids from school. Godspeed, baws. Death is coming for me....
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71777 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

I cant find my keys

Check the door.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26044 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:50 pm to
quote:

Death is coming for me....


It depends. Would you trust TDsngumbo and The Boat for your weather needs if your life depended on it?
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
49202 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 4:58 pm to
Well I’ve survived every weather event I’ve ever experienced in my 36.5 years on earth so I have a decent track record.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175868 posts
Posted on 1/20/22 at 5:03 pm to
It has more to do with the position of the front is the gulf and the 500 mb trough over western Texas. Getting a read on that trough has been tough.
This post was edited on 1/20/22 at 5:47 pm
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