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re: Self-driving cars: ethics and economic concerns
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:09 am to LucasP
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:09 am to LucasP
quote:Yeah, it's happening no matter what. My interest lies in considering the moral/ethical clarifications which AI basically insists upon. Cars is just one example. I have been mostly persuaded that AI is fraught with downside risk and we are not fully appreciating that fact.
it's still not a valid argument against
1
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:09 am to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:Kid behind some object runs out onto the road at the last second. Even the best autonomous cars can't avoid that 100% of the time.
This is foolish. The real answer is the car will just stop, because it's response time and control will be way beyond human capabilities. So neither dies.
The odds of this being a real scenario are nearly non-existent.
I don't know why it would be such a non-existent issue.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:15 am to madmaxvol
quote:It'll slowly take over, but it'll be decades and decades before we see only autonomous cars on the road AND that be the requirement by law for people to not drive their own cars.
I think it is probably inevitable...but I also think that displacement of drivers will be constrained by the cost and availability of self-driving cars for several years. It will not be an overnight change, but will phase in over a period of years.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:15 am to shel311
quote:I think this is pretty much where I am too. Does your answer change if it involves more than just you? (i.e. your family) Just think how irrational people are when it comes to something like flying. Large jet, commercial airline travel has reached the point of almost being impossibly safe. And yet, millions of people are too afraid to fly.
But even knowing my car could do that, I'm choosing to buy the car 10 out of 10 times. If we're talking truly autonomous cars, the risk of me dying in a car crash will go down exponentially, so I'd be giving myself a much better chance to survive, even if my car may one day choose to not save me as the driver.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:15 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
e. I have been mostly persuaded that AI is fraught with downside risk and we are not fully appreciating that fact.
I'm a lot more optimistic. Think of it this way, the leaders on this front are people like Google and IBM, who for the most part have good intentions. The engineers and coders at these places have one of two goals: make money by serving the good of humanity, or just making the world better altruistically. They see the danger and do everything they can to safeguard against it.
Now if it were our government or any other government developing this stuff, you'd have reason to fear. But for now I'm confident that our benevolent saviors at Google will get it right (that's only half sarcasm).
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:20 am to UF
quote:Why not?
No
quote:Did you see the video of the Tesla on auto pilot seeing the potential for an accident and beeping and slowing down one second before the accident?
Also, people forget that the car does not see "potential", it only sees the actual.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:21 am to LucasP
quote:I don't know. I think the good folks at Google and IBM are potentially blinded by the sheer intensity of the overall concept and haven't given as much consideration to ethics and morals.
I'm a lot more optimistic. Think of it this way, the leaders on this front are people like Google and IBM, who for the most part have good intentions. The engineers and coders at these places have one of two goals: make money by serving the good of humanity, or just making the world better altruistically. They see the danger and do everything they can to safeguard against it.
Now if it were our government or any other government developing this stuff, you'd have reason to fear. But for now I'm confident that our benevolent saviors at Google will get it right (that's only half sarcasm).
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:23 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:For me, no. If you tell me my entire family's chances of dying go down 99.9% but that .01% may be my car making that decision, sign me up for it.
I think this is pretty much where I am too. Does your answer change if it involves more than just you? (i.e. your family)
But I do agree with you in that:
quote:Yea, lots of people won't see it the way you and I see it.
Just think how irrational people are when it comes to something like flying. Large jet, commercial airline travel has reached the point of almost being impossibly safe. And yet, millions of people are too afraid to fly.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:28 am to Big Scrub TX
Admittedly I'm a bit of a Kurzweil acolyte so I may be biased. He's the head engineer at Google right now. But I've been reading his stuff and listening to his speeches for over a decade, he seems genuinely obsessed with making the world better with technology. And, in my view, he's given pretty lengthy thought to the ethical side as well. So if he's an accurate reflection of Google, then I'm fine with them racing ahead.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:35 am to Big Scrub TX
Y'all are ignoring the fact that the car is going to have 1000x more spacial awareness than you or me. The car is also not going to be driving itself 45 in a 25.
I mean a computer can land a jet on an aircraft carrier. It can land the Space Shuttle. I'm sure it can handle little Johnny and a ball in suburban America.
I mean a computer can land a jet on an aircraft carrier. It can land the Space Shuttle. I'm sure it can handle little Johnny and a ball in suburban America.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:51 am to shel311
quote:
Kid behind some object runs out onto the road at the last second. Even the best autonomous cars can't avoid that 100% of the time.
I don't know why it would be such a non-existent issue.
This was not the scenario proposed. In your situation, the kid may get run over. Accidents will still happen. People will still die.
The original scenario involved a moral/ethical dilemma.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:54 am to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:Right, but my quote was in response to someone basically saying things like this would rarely ever happen. I don't think that's quite so, there will still be many incidents that are unavoidable, though yes, we will get exponentially better at avoiding them once we take human error out of the equation.
This was not the scenario proposed. In your situation, the kid may get run over. Accidents will still happen. People will still die.
The original scenario involved a moral/ethical dilemma.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:59 am to LucasP
quote:I like Kurzweil, but I think he's the poster child of optimistic enthusiasts. Sam Harris has recently developed a quite bleak view on the matter. I like his formulation of the "fear of AI competency."
Admittedly I'm a bit of a Kurzweil acolyte so I may be biased. He's the head engineer at Google right now. But I've been reading his stuff and listening to his speeches for over a decade, he seems genuinely obsessed with making the world better with technology. And, in my view, he's given pretty lengthy thought to the ethical side as well. So if he's an accurate reflection of Google, then I'm fine with them racing ahead.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 11:59 am to shel311
Will my car know to get into the far right lane heading across the Mississippi eastbound in BR? Or will it use the second to far right lane like the sheeple?
Posted on 12/29/16 at 12:13 pm to Sparkplug#1
Not sure if serious, but traffic will not be an issue with self driving cars.
Traffic is a completely illogical human condition.
Traffic is a completely illogical human condition.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 12:44 pm to Big Scrub TX
Many many hotels will close as well.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 1:12 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
like Kurzweil, but I think he's the poster child of optimistic enthusiasts. Sam Harris has recently developed a quite bleak view on the matter. I like his formulation of the "fear of AI competency."
And I love Sam Harris, and agree with him on a lot of issues. This isn't one of them. I like that he's taken an interest in the subject because it's good to hear his opinions but I think he's far too bleak about it. Although I do love the Faustian moment he always describes between the human and AI (would make a great black mirror episode). But he hasn't presented anything compelling enough to get me off the Kurzweil utopian hype train.
But I'm also a bit of a natural optimist.
Btw, did you hear the latest Waking Up? Kasperav was still bitching about letting humanity down, it's a good listen.
Posted on 12/29/16 at 1:16 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
A self-driving car carrying a family of four on a rural two-lane highway spots a bouncing ball ahead. As the vehicle approaches a child runs out to retrieve the ball. Should the car risk its passengers’ lives by swerving to the side—where the edge of the road meets a steep cliff? Or should the car continue on its path, ensuring its passengers’ safety at the child’s expense?
A) It should stop, and it should have started stopping when it sensed the ball in the road and continued stopping when it sensed the child approaching the road.
B) If option A fails, then there is still no dilemma, it takes out the irresponsible kid in the road as opposed to the family of four that did nothing wrong. This isn't even a tough one to comprehend on any level.
C) Who the frick lets their kid play with a ball next to a road that parallels a steep cliff?
Posted on 12/29/16 at 1:18 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I like Kurzweil, but I think he's the poster child of optimistic enthusiasts.
I meant to comment on this too. Doesn't it give you some peace of mind that such an idealist is in such a position of power in this whole endeavor?
Posted on 12/29/16 at 1:31 pm to LucasP
quote:Can't wait. Just finishing the Paul Bloom episode today.
Btw, did you hear the latest Waking Up? Kasperav was still bitching about letting humanity down, it's a good listen.
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