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Message
re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:03 pm to deuce985
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:03 pm to deuce985
quote:
I feel bad Duke shares a similar screen name as him
It's hilarious when people occasionally get irrationally angry at a post I make in one of these threads.
1
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:03 pm to STEVED00
quote:
quote:
quote:
I'm pretty sure they had bad damage to the Jeff parish line... Flood even spilled over into Old Metairie at Airline.
If the 17th street canal holds (like it was supposedly design to hold what came) and JP had actually manned the pumping stations then Nola Metro damage would not been nearly as bad.
That is what I saw during my trips through those areas.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:03 pm to Hangover Haven
If anyone should be counting their lucky stars it should be New York even with Sandy hitting them. That places seems like the biggest ticking time bomb when it comes to hurricanes. I don't want to see it in my lifetime but at some point it's going to happen. Scary to think about with the population over there.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:04 pm to rds dc
FEMA has a nice database of Major Federal Disaster Declarations. These are the ones due to hurricanes/TS for Louisiana (starts in 1956)
October 4, 1956 - Hurricane Flossy
May 16, 1957 - Floods then Hurricane Audrey
October 3, 1964 - Hurricane Hilda
September 6, 1965 - Hurricane Betsy
August 19, 1969 - Hurricane Camille
October 13, 1971 - Hurricane Edith
September 23, 1974 - Hurricane Carmen
October 26, 1985 - Hurricane Juan
August 25, 1992 - Hurricane Andrew
September 9, 1998 - Hurricane Georges / TS Frances
September 21, 2002 - TS Isidore
October 1, 2002 - Hurricane Lili
September 13, 2004 - Hurricane Ivan (LA landfall)
August 29, 2005 - Hurricane Katrina
September 23, 2005 - Hurricane Rita
September 1, 2008 - Hurricane Gustav
September 11, 2008 - Hurricane Ike
August 26, 2012 - Hurricane Isaac
August 28, 2017 - TS Harvey
July 10, 2019 - Hurricane Barry
August 22, 2020 - Hurricane Laura
That is 21 times in 65 years or an average of 1 every 3.1 years.
Since 2002, there have been 11 in 19 years or an average of one every 1.7 years.
Biggest gap between declarations - 11 years ('74 to '85)
There have also been 24 major Flood incidents since 1953 obviously including 2016.
Why the hell do we live here?
LINK
October 4, 1956 - Hurricane Flossy
May 16, 1957 - Floods then Hurricane Audrey
October 3, 1964 - Hurricane Hilda
September 6, 1965 - Hurricane Betsy
August 19, 1969 - Hurricane Camille
October 13, 1971 - Hurricane Edith
September 23, 1974 - Hurricane Carmen
October 26, 1985 - Hurricane Juan
August 25, 1992 - Hurricane Andrew
September 9, 1998 - Hurricane Georges / TS Frances
September 21, 2002 - TS Isidore
October 1, 2002 - Hurricane Lili
September 13, 2004 - Hurricane Ivan (LA landfall)
August 29, 2005 - Hurricane Katrina
September 23, 2005 - Hurricane Rita
September 1, 2008 - Hurricane Gustav
September 11, 2008 - Hurricane Ike
August 26, 2012 - Hurricane Isaac
August 28, 2017 - TS Harvey
July 10, 2019 - Hurricane Barry
August 22, 2020 - Hurricane Laura
That is 21 times in 65 years or an average of 1 every 3.1 years.
Since 2002, there have been 11 in 19 years or an average of one every 1.7 years.
Biggest gap between declarations - 11 years ('74 to '85)
There have also been 24 major Flood incidents since 1953 obviously including 2016.
Why the hell do we live here?
LINK
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:06 pm to NorthEndZone
Tropical storm,
Sally
LaBR4
Interim President
This post was edited on 9/12/20 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:07 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:Yeah, we were. Lucks been changing since.
But someone mentioned how lucky we've been since Katrina... I was just saying the years between Camille and Katrina we were really lucky...
We got Gustav and then Rita in La. close together. Looks like another double whammy.
ETA: Ike not Rita.
This post was edited on 9/12/20 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:07 pm to Duke
Steve Caparotta, Ph.D.
@SteveWAFB
·
35m
Wrapped a conference call with our colleagues at
@NWSNewOrleans
a few minutes ago. Early messaging is 8-12 feet of surge possible from mouth of the MS River east along the MS coast with current track of #Sally. Important to note that is very track/intensity dependent.
33m
4-8 feet of surge possible into Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. While Sally is currently forecast as Cat. 1 at landfall, slow forward motion could enhance the surge (i.e. Isaac 2012).
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:09 pm to lsuman25
Great. Wonderful. Fantastic.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:09 pm to lsuman25
Well this blew up fast.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:10 pm to NorthEndZone
To be fair you can probably half the frequency as they usually only take out one side of the state
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:10 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Why the hell do we live here?
Because my Irish ancestors got off the boat in NOLA, got drunk and stayed???
And the food is good
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:10 pm to STEVED00
quote:
JP had actually manned the pumping stations
Thank God Broussard went to jail, and the fact we don't use Tim Coulon's dooms-day hurricane plan anymore...
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:13 pm to lsuman25
Does anyone here remember Hurricane Juan in 85 because that was one of the worst storm surges to hit the area between Camille and Katrina. It sat offshore just like this was is projected to do. I was stranded in a house on the water in Venetian Isles for a week and water was up 8 ft making Lake Pontchartrain, Borgne, and the Gulf one massive body of water.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:15 pm to TypoKnig
quote:
Agreed. Most of the damage Jefferson and Orleans Parishes suffered inside of lever protection was man made.
Don’t get me wrong there was lots of trees/power lines knocked down (power lines on W. Esplanade looked like a row of dominoes that got knocked over) and most houses had some form of roof damage (though most was minor enough to be addressed by blue roof program). W/o the flooding Nola metro would’ve been back up and running in a couple months.
Like others said, MS looked like a nuke went off in the coastal areas. Nola metro was not nearly that level of damage until the canal breaches and pumping failure occurred. JP was relatively minor flood damage compared to OP most of the flooding was less than 12” so rebuilding was much easier. It would have been even easier if the flood damage could’ve been addressed right a way. Having to wait over a week let to mold issues.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:15 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
Thank God Broussard went to jail, and the fact we don't use Tim Coulon's dooms-day hurricane plan anymore...
"Operation Snow Shoe" (Jeff Parish's disaster plan) was actually written by Aaron Broussard while he was sitting on a toilet the night that Katrina hit. Tim Coulon is not allowed to get credit for this.
This post was edited on 9/12/20 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:18 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Early messaging is 8-12 feet of surge
They were totally off for the surge prediction with Laura...
If they say 8-12', my guess it will be more like 5-8 feet...
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:19 pm to jimbeam
quote:
To be fair you can probably half the frequency
Agreed. You can divide the state into 3 parts - west of Laffy, Laffy to Morgan City up to BR, and east of MC/BR line. Except for areas outside of levee protection, each of those 3 regions probably only get significant damage 1 out of every 3 storms.
That is still once every 9 years on average.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:20 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
If they say 8-12', my guess it will be more like 5-8 feet..
Agreed that intensity (including storm surge) is the moT inaccurate component fo their forecasts but is it worth risking it If you live along the coast?
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:20 pm to MrLSU
quote:
Does anyone here remember Hurricane Juan in 85
I do, remember it well.
Had just moved in our new house in September.
Levee “broke” in South Lafourche
Water came about 6 inches from getting inside.
Since then house raised to + 8’.
Levees way better than before.
South Lafourche Levee System one of the best.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 2:22 pm to MrLSU
quote:
Does anyone here remember Hurricane Juan in 85
yes, I was at SLU and we got really drunk during a frat hurricane party..
Wasn't Juan the first storm to flood the Lakefront airport..?
This post was edited on 9/12/20 at 2:23 pm
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