re: Rolex Submariner or Omega Seamaster?

Again, I agree with everything you said (except that you seem slightly more sympathetic to the idea that precious metals can potentially bump a watch up a tier, where I would be vehemently opposed ). Not only is Rolex indispensable to the history of horology, and particular the development of the tool watch, but they are still making rock solid watches in 2021.

However...

Because of decisions Rolex has made to maintain its status as a "luxury" watch, availability is shite. Which means that MSRP borders on meaningless for the average consumer. Which means that I can simultaneously think that Rolex makes an excellent wristwatch while also believing the prices people are currently paying for them is detached from any tangible horological value or interest.

Now, that's to say nothing about whether they are good investment pieces, because as long as people are willing to pay absurd prices for them, assuming Rolex sticks to their guns on production, prices will just keep going up.

But that doesn't change my opinion that the price the average consumer has to pay to buy a new Rolex is higher than it should be based on the quality, fit, and finish of the wristwatch they are buying.

I don't know, does that put me in Tier 3 or something?

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except that you seem slightly more sympathetic to the idea that precious metals can potentially bump a watch up a tier, where I would be vehemently opposed

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Maybe I miss-typed. Some people see price as a big part of the tier system which I don't so some think of a 75k Rolex as high-end I don't it is mid-tier watchmaking.

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Because of decisions Rolex has made to maintain its status as a "luxury" watch, availability is shite.

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Here os where we vear off. I don't think it has anything to do with Rolex limiting availability they make 800k plus watches a year. The issue is the gray market hoarding them. I have a friend in Miami who is a gray dealer and he is sitting on over 20 unworn Hulks that is just one model at one gray dealer.

This produces a conundrum for Rolex. If they spend the capital and build more capacity and (if they can) hire more workers and put enough stock in the dealer network to overwhelm the gray market's ability to snatch them up and hold them then everyone that wants a watch will get them and likely produce a short term glut. Then after the excess demand drops (much of the demand is driven by the inability to get a watch, which makes it "cool") Rolex is stuck with excess capacity and their dealers are stuck with unsold inventory.

I promise demand is NOT beyond current Rolex production. The gray market is simply buying it up to flip it. While Rolex could afford to build excess manufacturing capacity ('cause the Crown is RICH AF) it would be a stupid business decision. It is for a similar reason ammo manufacturers haven't built huge new factories over the last decade.

Patek is an example of absolutely not meeting actual demand but that is 100% Thierry Stern's plan. Where Rolex would like to build the mythical "1 fewer unit than demand" Thierry wants to build closer to 20% of demand. He has outright said they DGAF how many people can't buy a Nautilus they aren't going to make more and become the company that makes Nautiluses like AP has become the company that makes Royal Oaks. That is why the new limited olive version of the 5711 (to be the last 5711... maybe) cost 40k retail and the first one auctioned brought damn near half a million dollars.


Rolex is making plenty and the only way to stop the train is when people quit paying secondary market markups for current production Rolex watches. A few hundred dollars over is fine, 50% to 100% (or more) over fricks up the market.

Do you think Rolex reserving a percentage of production for direct consumer sales would have benefits that would outweigh the negatives?

I put my name on the list over 6 months ago. I don’t really expect to ever get the call.

Not sure if you’ve been to an AD in awhile, but the cases are empty. It’s a joke.

If you have a relationship with the AD, then I bet you can get one within a year.

I have an Omega Seamaster Professional… Not cheap to send back to Seattle to get serviced. Wife has a Rolex. Pretty nice to bring it to Mr K here in Houston.

I have been trying to buy an Explorer II from an AD since February. No luck yet.

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How long are people waiting on Sub these days…

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It is hard to say because it varies from dealer to dealer and region to region and you can sometimes just get lucky when the first few on the list either bought somewhere else, changed their mind or on the day of the call fell a little tight on cash.

I would say 12-18 months if you don't have a relationship with an AD but you get on multiple lists and follow up regularly. I you have a relationship probably 6-12 months. That being said you have to understand there is not really a LIST as most people would think of a list. A good enough customer can walk in today and jump most or all the list. That is why it is important to be on multiple "lists" especially if you have no previous relationship. This is part of the gray market issue even if you are talking about $5k there are a lot of Rolex buyers that would rather just pay the premium than play the games and wait the time to get one at retail. It may be the only watch they want and the only watch they are going to have, look at it over 30 years and it becomes less of a big deal IF you have the cash upfront.

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Tough decision. One says “I’m trying too hard” and the other “I didn’t try hard enough”.

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Things poor people say to shame people that can afford nice things.

Submariner
True water proof and classic.
All others just copy