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re: Potential early season tropical system in the Gulf

Posted on 5/22/19 at 3:16 pm to
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41589 posts
Posted on 5/22/19 at 3:16 pm to
Bump for updated model output.
Posted by MickeyLikesDags21
Member since Apr 2019
6640 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 8:36 am to
Looks like it got pushed back a week but with a chance of blowing up

This post was edited on 5/23/19 at 8:38 am
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35613 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 8:41 am to
Skeptical of GFS fantasy land.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41589 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 8:44 am to
quote:

Skeptical of GFS fantasy land.

Yes, I was shocked to see that when I woke up and I'm skeptical of it as well. However the GFS has been consistent lately.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35613 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 8:47 am to
The GFS (and the new one too apparently) love to spin up hurricanes in the way out time period. Not a hard sell from the source location that a sheared mess of a TS could form up, just nothing dipping hard into the low 990s or lower.
Posted by tommy2tone1999
St. George, LA
Member since Sep 2008
6772 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 10:49 am to
Weather models this year have been even more inaccurate than they normally are. It's like the weather trends they based their models on have completely changed. I am more than a little skeptical of this prediction.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41589 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 10:50 am to
Well the GFS is running now so I'll come back and update with that run. It's been consistent for the last 3 or 4 runs.
Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
84857 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 10:51 am to
Gulf STAAACKED
S&WB FUUUCKED
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
120262 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 10:53 am to
The problem is there are so many models now that at least one of them is gonna spit out something barreling into the gulf 2 weeks out from now until October

So we can spaz out on here continuously
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41589 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 10:55 am to
quote:

The problem is there are so many models now that at least one of them is gonna spit out something barreling into the gulf 2 weeks out from now until October


I only look at a few every year. GFS and EURO are the top two with maybe the Canadian being the blind squirrel that finds a nut every now and then.
Posted by BigB0882
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
5308 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 10:58 am to
Always pushed back a week.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
166247 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 10:59 am to
peej " non event for houston, i predict less than 4" of rain"
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41589 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:00 am to
quote:

Always pushed back a week.


I think the GFS was close to the same time frame each time. Not on the dime, obviously, but in the ballpark.
Posted by WoWyHi
Member since Jul 2009
23339 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:09 am to
quote:

Also, this was on rds dc's radar like two or three weeks ago. That dude plays 4D weather chess.


You realize where they get this info right? Go to Storm2k and you can see where a few TD posters take, sometimes verbatim, the posts of Storm2k posters.
Posted by tommy2tone1999
St. George, LA
Member since Sep 2008
6772 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:14 am to
I'm just not seeing it.

Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
17441 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:21 am to
quote:

quote:
Looks like Punta Cana will be ok for Memorial Day

quote:


Going June 1, will I die?





Ill see you there or at least at the airport. Connecting through Panama here. Do I know you?
Posted by Crayon Smeller
Member since Apr 2019
124 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:24 am to
quote:

I can promise you the idiots at WLOX in Gulfport will treat this storm as a massive, unprecedented category 5.



ratings baw

This post was edited on 5/23/19 at 11:26 am
Posted by MickeyLikesDags21
Member since Apr 2019
6640 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 11:25 am to
quote:

You realize where they get this info right? Go to Storm2k and you can see where a few TD posters take, sometimes verbatim, the posts of Storm2k posters


I just assumed it was the same person
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41589 posts
Posted on 5/23/19 at 12:57 pm to
New model output dropped the Gulf scenario all together
This post was edited on 5/23/19 at 12:59 pm
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