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Message
Possible top 5 historic crest for MS river in BTR
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:04 am
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:04 am
forecast model
Model still has the river rising two weeks out from today. Bonnet carre is already open. Might we see another opening of the morganza?
Model still has the river rising two weeks out from today. Bonnet carre is already open. Might we see another opening of the morganza?
11
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:07 am to crazyLSUstudent
quote:If the rains don't start to pull back prior to the snow melt, yes.
Might we see another opening of the morganza?
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:08 am to crazyLSUstudent
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:13 am to ell_13
Which brings up my next question - how much battering do the levies take if the melt off keeps the river level high for so long?
We were getting a ton of weak spots behind the levies back in 2011 when the last big crest happened. If the volume stays high for long enough, does it wear through some of the levies even if it doesn’t overtop them?
We were getting a ton of weak spots behind the levies back in 2011 when the last big crest happened. If the volume stays high for long enough, does it wear through some of the levies even if it doesn’t overtop them?
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:14 am to crazyLSUstudent
quote:
Might we see another opening of the morganza?
I don't think it will get above 47-48 in BR before they open it.
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:16 am to junkfunky
Morganza isnt opening per COE
All is well
All is well
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:17 am to teke184
quote:
If the volume stays high for long enough, does it wear through some of the levies even if it doesn’t overtop them?
It will lead to sand boils which undermine the levee.
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:18 am to junkfunky
quote:
I don't think it will get above 47-48 in BR before they open it.
Hope not. At 48 feet, some parts of the levees around downtown will have already been overtopped.
This post was edited on 2/28/19 at 11:19 am
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:18 am to crazyLSUstudent
Was listening to Josh Eachus this morning on the radio - he said that, at least at the moment, they're not anticipating needing to open Morganza, only Bonnet Carre.
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:19 am to junkfunky
48 would be over the levee and 47.28 is the record for BTR. If we get anywhere near that the morganza will open
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:20 am to junkfunky
quote:The record is just over 47 feet back in 1927.
I don't think it will get above 47-48 in BR before they open it.
It got to 45 in 2011 when they opened it.
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:20 am to Cosmo
quote:
Morganza isnt opening per COE
All is well
Someone was showing me the projected yesterday that showed it going over 48.5'
I assume that was a worst case scenario based on this:
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:21 am to junkfunky
In 2011 they opened Morganza at 45. Will do the same this year if it gets that high. Right now crest is 43.5 but there is always the potential to get higher if rain continues in the upper Mississippi drainage plain
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:21 am to Cosmo
A couple of days ago COE stated they were only going to open 36 bays now all 200 are open. Long term forecast has 3 more large systems moving through the MS rivers catch basin. So things could change pretty quickly on the possibility of opening the morganza
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:21 am to crazyLSUstudent
quote:
48 would be over the levee and 47.28 is the record for BTR. If we get anywhere near that the morganza will open
Yeah, I meant approaching not above. I totally agree, but I think I was using bad info.
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:26 am to foj1981
It's pretty impressive how much water is coming through the Tennessee towards you guys.
Spot the fishing pier?
Pano on top the gates
Spot the fishing pier?
Pano on top the gates
This post was edited on 2/28/19 at 11:28 am
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:27 am to crazyLSUstudent
Y'all should know better than to live there. Womp Womp.
- California
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:28 am to crazyLSUstudent
There's like a 20 page thread on this.
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:30 am to whoa
whoa
Posted on 2/28/19 at 11:31 am to crazyLSUstudent
Matt Morris and 3/4 of the OT hoping for a flood
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