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re: New thread started for Beryl
Posted on 6/27/24 at 11:13 am to Mr Roboto
Posted on 6/27/24 at 11:13 am to Mr Roboto
quote:
Everyone with a trip to the Caribbean in July can only blame themselves. It’s objectively the worst time of year to travel there
No it isn't. August and September are both worse.
1
Posted on 6/27/24 at 11:13 am to 4x4tiger
There has been a rain shower just wallowing around less than two miles from me for an hour and a half now. I can actually see the the rain in the distance, but nothing here at the house. That's Summer for ya. 
Posted on 6/27/24 at 11:15 am to Mr Roboto
quote:
June- October is the worst time to go. If there isn’t a storm threat it’s hot as balls. Next time go in the winter
Nice crawfish.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 11:15 am to Stevo
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck
Posted on 6/27/24 at 12:05 pm to Ziggy
Lots of uncertainty on 95L. Looks like time will tell...
Posted on 6/27/24 at 12:08 pm to Caymus
I'm supposed to be in Grand Cayman July 3-7. The latest ensemble almost looks intentional. Fun times.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 12:16 pm to Stevo
Chill out GFS. Sheesh
[/url]
[/url]Posted on 6/27/24 at 12:55 pm to rds dc
A couple of things to watch.
There is currently favorable tropical forcing moving across the Atlantic MDR (MJO/KW), and models have had a tendency over the past few years to overestimate the positive influence of these waves, resulting in false alarms in the ensembles.
We are currently moving through the peak influence of this forcing (bottom of green box). If this is an ensemble false alarm, then we should start to see them back off of development in the coming days as the favorable influence moves away.
However, 95L looks very healthy at the moment.
If 95L develops, how strong it gets and how soon that happens will play a role in track after Day 5. Until Day 5, a ridge over the top will keep this heading westward towards the Islands.
Around Day 5, a trough will move off the NE US, and a stronger system might start to feel a northward tug at that point. It is then hard to comment on the track out beyond Day 5, but if we look at the Day 7 spread, we can make some trend observations. A stronger system tracks slower and more NW, and a weaker system tracks faster and more westward.
This shows up when you cluster the ensembles, but the 00z Euro vs. yesterday's 12z run highlights this nicely.
12z - stronger, slower, NW
00z - weaker, faster, W
TL, DR - watch ensemble development chances over the next couple of days and look for a downward development trend. If that doesn't happen, look for a weaker storm that would have more trouble surviving the trek across the Caribbean Sea and might harmlessly move into Central America. A stronger storm earlier on is probably bad news for the Gulf.
There is currently favorable tropical forcing moving across the Atlantic MDR (MJO/KW), and models have had a tendency over the past few years to overestimate the positive influence of these waves, resulting in false alarms in the ensembles.
We are currently moving through the peak influence of this forcing (bottom of green box). If this is an ensemble false alarm, then we should start to see them back off of development in the coming days as the favorable influence moves away.
However, 95L looks very healthy at the moment.
If 95L develops, how strong it gets and how soon that happens will play a role in track after Day 5. Until Day 5, a ridge over the top will keep this heading westward towards the Islands.
Around Day 5, a trough will move off the NE US, and a stronger system might start to feel a northward tug at that point. It is then hard to comment on the track out beyond Day 5, but if we look at the Day 7 spread, we can make some trend observations. A stronger system tracks slower and more NW, and a weaker system tracks faster and more westward.
This shows up when you cluster the ensembles, but the 00z Euro vs. yesterday's 12z run highlights this nicely.
12z - stronger, slower, NW
00z - weaker, faster, W
TL, DR - watch ensemble development chances over the next couple of days and look for a downward development trend. If that doesn't happen, look for a weaker storm that would have more trouble surviving the trek across the Caribbean Sea and might harmlessly move into Central America. A stronger storm earlier on is probably bad news for the Gulf.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 12:59 pm to rds dc
quote:
A stronger storm earlier on is probably bad news for the Gulf.
I'll start stockpiling titty milk now
Posted on 6/27/24 at 1:24 pm to Caymus
quote:Now THAT's an example of the thought-provoking tropical weather insight which the O-T Lounge is known for that you can't get anywhere else...
Looks like time will tell...
Posted on 6/27/24 at 1:26 pm to rds dc
So essentially check back on Monday and see how strong it is then.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 1:33 pm to Stevo
Sorry that downvote was a mistake…you’re absolutely correct.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 1:34 pm to rds dc
In a week we will have a better idea of where this is going
Posted on 6/27/24 at 1:43 pm to Cosmo
We should have more information later on.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 1:57 pm to Large Farva
For right now just stay vigilant and make sure your hurricane plan is in place
Posted on 6/27/24 at 2:08 pm to Cosmo
quote:
For right now just stay vigilant and make sure your hurricane plan is in place
Let me know when it's time to hunker down.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 2:21 pm to Cosmo
My worry for my July 3 vacation is going through rapid intensification.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 2:25 pm to Cosmo
quote:
In a week we will have a better idea of where this is going
And in 2 or 3 weeks we will be able to start the tropical cyclone summary report
12z Euro was weak and into CA
Posted on 6/27/24 at 2:37 pm to rds dc
Obviously wouldn't affect the northern Gulf with that run but at day 10 tries to sneak it in the Bay of Campeache
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