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re: Morganza Spillway may or may not open for a 3rd time -- lack of clear info from ACoE

Posted on 3/4/19 at 7:10 pm to
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
6170 posts
Posted on 3/4/19 at 7:10 pm to
In the book “rising tide” this is the close to the same weather pattern they had in 1927
Wet fall all the way from gulf up to Minnesota
Wet spring in same areas with plenty of snowfall
Hopefully when the snow starts to melt the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will go through a dry period
Posted by Capt ST
High Plains
Member since Aug 2011
13674 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 3:46 pm to
Looks like crest in BR got bumped up 44’.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105312 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 3:56 pm to
Hypothetically if the levee broke without warning in BR, would it be the worst natural disaster in US history? You'd have 300,000 people sitting on their roofs.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 4:11 pm to
I mean yeah, a surprise 10' flood would be bad for Baton Rouge.
Posted by Capt ST
High Plains
Member since Aug 2011
13674 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 4:16 pm to
There’s a lot of us in BR that wouldn’t flood.
Posted by FeauxPaw
BRuh
Member since Sep 2015
1147 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 4:21 pm to
quote:

Hypothetically if the levee broke without warning in BR, would it be the worst natural disaster in US history? You'd have 300,000 people sitting on their roofs.


300,000 people? It would no doubt be a disaster but you are overestimating the inundation.


Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21764 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 4:30 pm to
quote:

They would open Morganza and blow levees up north flooding 100ks of acres of farm land before BR / NO levees get topped. If that ain’t enough then ORCS is, as many believe, vulnerable.



Are you referring to Bird Point floodway protecting Cairo?
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105312 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 4:33 pm to
quote:

Are you referring to Bird Point floodway protecting Cairo?


Thing about that is the water would run back into the river downstream. It would take the pressure off Cairo (which is a ghost town now, btw. there's nothing to protect any more). But it wouldn't affect the downstream water levels.
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 5:09 pm to
quote:



That's kinda impressive. Know what those two red spots are in the Southern part of this scan?

They're the gypstacks in between Geismar and St. Gabriel. The big red blotch is the big one at 30 and 3115.
This post was edited on 3/5/19 at 5:11 pm
Posted by Byrdybyrd05
Member since Nov 2014
26543 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 5:37 pm to
I live in St Gabriel
I’m fuuuuuuuuuucked
Posted by LSUsmartass
Scompton
Member since Sep 2004
82745 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 6:01 pm to
And it looks like they bumped up crest date a few days
Posted by MonroeTigerstripes
Member since Jul 2016
572 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 6:09 pm to
What is crest date as of now?
Posted by LSUsmartass
Scompton
Member since Sep 2004
82745 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 6:30 pm to
12th
Posted by GeorgeTheGreek
Sparta, Greece
Member since Mar 2008
69190 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 6:31 pm to
What’s that rainbow river picture I’m looking at?
Posted by DeCat ODahouse
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2017
1676 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 7:12 pm to
Very cool and helpful map. Can you post the next block over over, E. of -90.80?
What would the impact be there on watersheds below 1-12? Especially Tangipahoa and Tchefuncte Rvers?
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 7:30 pm to
That’s topography of BR area
Posted by BlindTiger7
Houston
Member since Sep 2016
3071 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 7:31 pm to
It would be pretty bad. My guess is that it would get pretty close to Highland Rd
Posted by BeepNode
Lafayette
Member since Feb 2014
10005 posts
Posted on 3/5/19 at 10:39 pm to
It went to 45' back in 2011. That was the highest it's been since 1945.

47' was the great flood of 1927, but obviously that was before the new infrastructure was put in place.
This post was edited on 3/5/19 at 10:41 pm
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50783 posts
Posted on 3/6/19 at 8:30 am to
Bump for the latest forecast bumping it up to 44'.

Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50783 posts
Posted on 3/6/19 at 8:57 am to
GFS shows about 50/50 below freezing temps and well above freezing temps for the central/northern plains as well as the Ohio River valley over the next two weeks. Combined with more rain, the snow will start to melt then refreeze then melt again.
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