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Message
1
Posted on 9/9/15 at 2:30 pm to rds dc
Landfall would be 9ish days away but things will start to get in motion this weekend. An invest could come Saturday or Sunday and that would start the process.
GFS has been pretty consistently west with the energy and no tropical system. Just a typical coastal rain storm. The Euro has been more east and out in the Gulf. They have significant differences with how they handle the large scale pattern but not really worth getting it that now. Certainly something to watch as we head into next week.
GFS has been pretty consistently west with the energy and no tropical system. Just a typical coastal rain storm. The Euro has been more east and out in the Gulf. They have significant differences with how they handle the large scale pattern but not really worth getting it that now. Certainly something to watch as we head into next week.
Posted on 9/9/15 at 2:31 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/9/15 at 2:33 pm to RummelTiger
Are you saying this the one to watch?
Posted on 9/9/15 at 2:34 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Are you saying this the one to watch?
No, that catch phrase belongs to another poster
Posted on 9/9/15 at 2:40 pm to tgrbaitn08
is there anything left of punta cana?
Posted on 9/9/15 at 2:44 pm to Chad504boy
Stiff dew is gonna bone us again
Posted on 9/9/15 at 2:45 pm to Aubs10
quote:
Stiff dew is gonna bone us again
Stiff dew, brisk breeze.
Posted on 9/9/15 at 2:53 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
punta cana
total annihilation
Posted on 9/9/15 at 4:14 pm to musick
quote:
quote:
punta cana
total annihilation
Still waiting on confirmation that anyone has ever gone there on vacation
Posted on 9/9/15 at 4:22 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
But is it?
Obviously, but that doesn't mean it will be a significant system. Flipping through the 12z GFS and Euro and a couple of things jump out in the short range (3 to 4 days).
- GFS drives the front farther into the Gulf vs Euro
- GFS looks drier across the Gulf
- Euro handles the PV streamer (precursor energy that may trigger things) differently (I'm extrapolating that from other data, since I don't have access to Euro DT layers)
- Euro has a slightly different orientation in the upper level flow
All of those are somewhat minor differences but kind of snowball into different genesis pathways. Also, the proximity to land is an issue that the models will struggle with. The higher resolution of the Euro might enable it to better handle this setup but it doesn't mean that it will be right.
This post was edited on 9/9/15 at 4:25 pm
Posted on 9/9/15 at 4:49 pm to rds dc
quote:
- Euro handles the PV streamer (precursor energy that may trigger things) differently (I'm extrapolating that from other data, since I don't have access to Euro DT layers)
looking at the 500mb vort in the euro it puts the maximum offshore and keeps almost none of it over mexico
but as always I try to reserve discussion for storms until after they're actually trying to develop
Posted on 9/9/15 at 5:00 pm to baytiger
quote:
looking at the 500mb vort in the euro it puts the maximum offshore and keeps almost none of it over mexico
Yep, that is what I was going off of. The GFS has it strung out back into Mexico. Obviously, the convective scheme differences b/w the two models is playing a role. Also, the GFS appears to be keeping things tangled with coastal Mexico.
quote:
but as always I try to reserve discussion for storms until after they're actually trying to develop
You could probably argue that the process is starting as the front sags through Texas this afternoon. We should see things start to come together over the weekend. I'm just not sure how NHC will handle the 5 day and investing. Not as simple as a AEW moving towards the BoC, although you might be able to track some energy back to one. Complicated process.
Posted on 9/9/15 at 5:31 pm to rds dc
If this starts spinning up far enough down in the BOC, we could see it come together relatively quickly. There have been countless storms that just wrap up so easily down there. I have read theories about it being the geography of the area or other factors but it is something to keep in mind.
Posted on 9/9/15 at 5:46 pm to rds dc
Since this thread was already covering the topic started by another poster, this thread will continue...while the other was deleted with extreme prejudice.
Posted on 9/9/15 at 5:51 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
extreme prejudice.
Not allowed in 2015. Or I'm taking down somebody's statue.
Posted on 9/9/15 at 6:55 pm to tgrbaitn08
Has the Gumbo wish casting dude chimed in with his Cat 4 prediction yet?
Posted on 9/9/15 at 7:33 pm to rds dc
18z GFS is all in on football in Tiger Stadium for the Auburn game. It is pointless to watch each model run at this point but it is an interesting battle b/w the Euro and GFS. USA! USA!
Posted on 9/9/15 at 7:40 pm to rds dc
Now we're speculating the postponement of the Auburn game 10 days away to generate interest in the thread ?
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