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Started By
Message
Mathemetician takes a crack at COVID-19 superspreaders, relevent for policy
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:20 am
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:20 am
Quillette
Hypothesis: Large droplets, or a relatively high load, needed to infect others with COVID in any meaningful percent probability. These SSE events feature people singing or speaking loudly, in very close proximity for extended periods of time. Funerals will have a whole lot of crying/hugging offering a whole other avenue of viral transfer.
Notably absent for major outbreaks: Intercontinental airplane travel or movie theaters. In one event, a SSE was tied to a flight attendant, however it was other attendees at a wedding that got sick - NOT the airplane passengers.
Practical implications:
If your sick, wear a mask or stay the frick home, otherwise - probably not much benefit. Restaurant owners/managers shouldn't hesitate to kick someone out if their coughing up a lung near 3 other tables.
Church services and other group activities should be able to let people in, but avoid group singing or activities which require the congregation to raise their voice. More leniency allowed for truly outdoor events.
Public parks, restaurants, offices, etc... no reason not to open if well ventilated (no air blowing from 1 table to another like in the Chinese example).
Bars - open, but keep the music and TV volumes down so people don't raise their voices. Limit capacity to keep crowd noise down.
quote:
Of the 54 SSEs on my list for which the underlying activities were identified, no fewer than nine were linked to religious services or missionary work. This includes massive gatherings such as February’s weeklong Christian Open Door prayer meeting in Mulhouse, France, which has been linked to an astounding 2,500 cases; and a massive Tablighi Jamaat Islamic event in Lahore that attracted a quarter-million people. But it also includes much smaller-scale religious activities, such as proselytizing in rural Punjabi villages and a religious meeting in a Calgary home.
Nineteen of the SSEs—about one-third—involved parties or liquor-fueled mass attendance festivals of one kind or another, including (as with the examples cited above) celebrations of weddings, engagements and birthdays.
Five of the SSEs involved funerals.
Six of the SSEs involved face-to-face business networking. This includes large-scale events such as Biogen’s notorious Boston leadership meeting in February, as well as one-on-one business meetings—from the unidentified “traveling salesperson” who spread COVID-19 in Maine to Hisham Hamdan, a powerful sovereign-wealth fund official who spread the disease in Malaysia.
Hypothesis: Large droplets, or a relatively high load, needed to infect others with COVID in any meaningful percent probability. These SSE events feature people singing or speaking loudly, in very close proximity for extended periods of time. Funerals will have a whole lot of crying/hugging offering a whole other avenue of viral transfer.
Notably absent for major outbreaks: Intercontinental airplane travel or movie theaters. In one event, a SSE was tied to a flight attendant, however it was other attendees at a wedding that got sick - NOT the airplane passengers.
Practical implications:
If your sick, wear a mask or stay the frick home, otherwise - probably not much benefit. Restaurant owners/managers shouldn't hesitate to kick someone out if their coughing up a lung near 3 other tables.
Church services and other group activities should be able to let people in, but avoid group singing or activities which require the congregation to raise their voice. More leniency allowed for truly outdoor events.
Public parks, restaurants, offices, etc... no reason not to open if well ventilated (no air blowing from 1 table to another like in the Chinese example).
Bars - open, but keep the music and TV volumes down so people don't raise their voices. Limit capacity to keep crowd noise down.
5
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:22 am to BRIllini07
Dont frick somebody with covid i guess?
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:23 am to Cosmo
quote:
Dont frick somebody with covid i guess?
Thats a risk I'm taking 10/10 times
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:26 am to BRIllini07
This is helpful information, but not very promising you want to attend a sporting event any time soon.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:42 am to BRIllini07
quote:
If your sick, wear a mask
What's the current thought on the necessity/effectiveness of masks?
I keep seeing conflicting information on this.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:43 am to paperwasp
There’s no good data to prove any percentage being throw out there. It’s all made up.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:44 am to BRIllini07
quote:
relevent
*relevant
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:45 am to paperwasp
The one really good justification for the mask was it helps prevent you from touching your face with your hands.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:47 am to paperwasp
Take this for instance:
Currently making the rounds but looks like it was made by a third grader who didn’t know where to put the percentage signs. The numbers are completely made up.
Currently making the rounds but looks like it was made by a third grader who didn’t know where to put the percentage signs. The numbers are completely made up.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:47 am to BRIllini07
quote:
or a relatively high load
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:20 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
This is helpful information, but not very promising you want to attend a sporting event any time soon.
I was thinking the same thing unfortunately. Thousands yelling or singing along to sing-along songs shoulder-to-shoulder seems like the ideal super spreader situation. Only saving grace may be lower spread outdoors vs indoors. I can see it now - NFL gonna screw the Saints and allow fans only at open-air stadiums.
From the article-
quote:
In fact, the truly remarkable trend that jumped off my spreadsheet has nothing to do with the sort of people involved in these SSEs, but rather the extraordinarily narrow range of underlying activities.
quote:
These parties, funerals, religious meet-ups and business networking sessions all seem to have involved the same type of behaviour: extended, close-range, face-to-face conversation—typically in crowded, socially animated spaces.
quote:
With few exceptions, almost all of the SSEs took place indoors, where people tend to pack closer together in social situations, and where ventilation is poorer. (for instance, the notorious outbreak at an Austrian ski resort is connected to a bartender and not, say, a lift operator.)
quote:
Three of the SSEs involved concert-goers and singing groups belting out tunes together over a period of hours. (The Skagit example is particularly interesting, because the organizers were aware of the COVID-19 risk beforehand, and took the precaution of spacing out the participants by several feet. If they had been merely chatting, instead of singing, no one might have gotten sick.)
quote:
high levels of noise do seem to be a common feature of SSEs, as such environments force conversationalists to speak at extremely close range.
quote:
Three of the SSEs involved mass sports spectacles, during which fans regularly rain saliva in all directions as they communally celebrate or commiserate in response to each turn of fortune. As we now know, the danger starts even before the action begins: One of the most dangerous things you can do at a sports event in the COVID-19 era is sing the national anthem.
quote:
It’s worth scanning all the myriad forms of common human activity that aren’t represented among these listed SSEs: watching movies in a theater, being on a train or bus, attending theater, opera, or symphony (these latter activities may seem like rarified examples, but they are important once you take stock of all those wealthy infectees who got sick in March, and consider that New York City is a major COVID-19 hot spot). These are activities where people often find themselves surrounded by strangers in densely packed rooms—but, crucially, where attendees also are expected to sit still and talk in hushed tones.
quote:
It’s similarly notable that airplanes don’t seem to be common sites for known SSEs, notwithstanding the sardine-like manner in which airlines transport us and the ample opportunity that the industry’s bureaucracy offers for contact tracing. Yes, New Zealand has one cluster that’s based around an infected but asymptomatic flight attendant. But the many known infections he caused took place at a wedding reception, not in an airplane.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:25 pm to paperwasp
quote:
What's the current thought on the necessity/effectiveness of masks?
It will limit the range and spread of large droplets released by coughing/sneezing/spitting, and that annoying occasional spray some people have when they talk too loud.
Taking this (admittedly, a math guy)'s work. I would interpret that mere breathing in the vicinity of someone for a short period of time is unlikely to be a major concern, so wearing a mask in places of brief contact - even if around other people - may not provide much societal benefit even you happened to be an asymptomatic carrier.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:33 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
This is helpful information, but not very promising you want to attend a sporting event any time soon.
There are practical ways to manage this risk I think.
Nursing homes can restrict access to people who have been to a sporting event in the last 14 days. Over 65 advised not to attend live games, or turn one of the boxes into a "seniors only" box with adequate distancing and shielding. Temperature monitoring at the gates (while it won't catch a large portion), may offer enough of an illusion that some pretty sick people who would otherwise tough it out may stay home. In addition to announcements, signs, etc...
Problem is this relies on self reporting, and someone is going to have LSU tickets the week before grandma's birthday and is more than willing to lie to a nursing home desk clerk.
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