Manufacturing Unexpectedly Craters In 2nd Biggest Drop On Record

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NY Fed Manufacturing Unexpectedly Craters In 2nd Biggest Drop On Record

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So much for any optimism that the US economy can avoid a hard landing.

One (business) day after the UMich survey hinted that economic optimism is set to jump amid collapsing inflation expectations, moments ago the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey unexpectedly cratered from 11.1 to -31.3, slicking through consensus expectations for a 5.0 print like a hot knife through butter, and suffering the 2nd biggest monthly drop on record.

The big miss of the month's first regional manufacturing survey was driven by a decline across all indicators, but especially by a sharp drop in the forward looking New Orders which tanked to -29.6 from +6.2, while the shipments index plummeted nearly fifty points to -24.1, indicating a sharp decline in both orders and shipments, and strongly hinting that a hard-landing recession is inevitable and that, for all the posturing, a Fed rate cut is imminent after all.

Mocking the relentless data fudging by the politicized BLS, the report showed that the index of employees moved down eleven points to 7.4, pointing to a small increase in employment, and the average workweek index fell to -13.1, indicating a decline in hours worked. The prices paid index fell nine points to 55.5, its lowest level in over a year, indicating a deceleration in input price increases. The prices received index was little changed at 32.7.

Looking ahead, the index for future business conditions came in at 2.1, suggesting that firms were not optimistic about the six-month outlook.

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