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re: Louisiana COVID-19 - July 20, 2020 Update: 94,892 cases - 3,462 deaths - 1,102,924 tested

Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:10 pm to
Posted by tigafan4life
Member since Dec 2006
50641 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:10 pm to
This thread is a shite show today. Goodness
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
44888 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:11 pm to
Say there were 0 people in the hospital 2 days ago.

Then say I didn’t tell you how many went into hospital yesterday.

Now I tell you there are 4 people total in hospital today.

What is the average number of people going to hospital over last 2 days?


For this discussion forget about deaths and discharges.
This post was edited on 7/20/20 at 1:11 pm
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129530 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

An improvement in the rate of increase.


Yeah, thats what happens when you are nearing a peak baw
Posted by Not Cooper
Member since Jun 2015
5022 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

The state has never provided the granularity to say "On Friday we had 25 patients, over the weekend 15 of those 25 were discharged, and we received 40 new patients, for a new total of 50 patients" If they were, you'd have a point about the making an assumption about the zero. But sense they have just been counting total beds to begin with, using the zero is valid.


Thank you for a reasonable response. I see where you are coming from and can agree with that.
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
10993 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

Not Cooper


Dude, this is getting embarrassing.
Posted by Salmon
I helped draft the email
Member since Feb 2008
85400 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:13 pm to
quote:

An improvement in the rate of increase. Not an increase in the number of people hospitalized.


Yes. This is literally all anyone has argued.

Jesus Christ.
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
44888 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:13 pm to
It isn’t an opinion or spin. You look for a slow down of the increase first, then eventually a decrease. Not my problem if you somehow magically think it is supposed to happen another way.
Posted by Salmon
I helped draft the email
Member since Feb 2008
85400 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

better to compare month to month than week to week anyways but not too bright ppl on here my guy


explain this reasoning

as detailed as possible too, my guy
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
50044 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:14 pm to
This thread has been hysterical
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71852 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

It isn’t an opinion or spin. You look for a slow down of the increase first, then eventually a decrease. Not my problem if you somehow magically think it is supposed to happen another way.


Forgive him. He's really, really old.
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

I see where you are coming from and can agree with that.



Can you admit that you’re a dumbass and can we move on?
Posted by Salmon
I helped draft the email
Member since Feb 2008
85400 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:16 pm to
quote:

You look for a slow down of the increase first, then eventually a decrease. Not my problem if you somehow magically think it is supposed to happen another way.



if one is trying to determine a peak, you look at the rate of increase

how the frick do people not understand this?
Posted by LSUJML
Central
Member since May 2008
51946 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

This thread has been hysterical


Yeah, I have no clue what’s going on

Went to get vehicle inspected & came back to a bunch of drama

No one at car inspection / service place was wearing masks
Posted by KamaCausey_LSU
Member since Apr 2013
17167 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

hospitalizations continue to slow down

Most people are waiting for hospitalizations to start going down, not just slowing down, before celebrating.
Posted by Salmon
I helped draft the email
Member since Feb 2008
85400 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

Most people are waiting for hospitalizations to start going down, not just slowing down, before celebrating.



well one precedes the other

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71852 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

No one at car inspection / service place was wearing masks

But, did they understand averages?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71852 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

Most people are waiting for hospitalizations to start going down, not just slowing down, before celebrating.



Posted by Mr Perfect
Member since Mar 2010
17836 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:20 pm to
because weekly numbers can be manipulated by dumps and so we don't know truly when cases and deaths are getting reported into the system.

so for me dude it's just better to have a larger data sample to mitigate the inconsistencies in the reporting
Posted by Salmon
I helped draft the email
Member since Feb 2008
85400 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

because weekly numbers can be manipulated by dumps and so we don't know truly when cases and deaths are getting reported into the system.


how many times have they entered backlogged hospitalizations?

which is what this thread is currently about

quote:

so for me dude it's just better to have a larger data sample to mitigate the inconsistencies in the reporting


which is literally why we look at 7 days averages
This post was edited on 7/20/20 at 1:22 pm
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
44888 posts
Posted on 7/20/20 at 1:22 pm to
Again, dumps don’t have anything to do with a current headcount of hospitalization numbers.

Stop confusing that with case numbers.
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