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Started By
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re: Let's Do It Again: Severe Threat 3/30 - Line of Severe Storms leaving SELA. AL in it now
Posted on 3/28/22 at 10:37 pm to Duke
Posted on 3/28/22 at 10:37 pm to Duke
For all those reading, this is just me noting a model run probably coming in a little hot. Nothing in the logic has changed on this being a primarily wind event with some embedded tornadoes within the line.
Ok, now for the "fun" stuff.
HRRR does HRRR things tonight.
QLCS spin ups for erryone.
I wonder how many clicks it'll take to find a PDS tor?
3. The answer was three.
Ok, now for the "fun" stuff.
HRRR does HRRR things tonight.
QLCS spin ups for erryone.
I wonder how many clicks it'll take to find a PDS tor?
3. The answer was three.
1
Posted on 3/28/22 at 10:45 pm to Duke
quote:
I wonder how many clicks it'll take to find a PDS tor?
I pulled a couple earlier.
That line is just nasty. Looks like two chances for some discrete action with it. Still, on approach to the river in MS, and later into AL. MS, of course, has the best parameter space for something out front to get going. HRRR showing severe gusts from Memphis to the Gulf.
I've seen a few hodos that are huge, off the page.
Posted on 3/28/22 at 10:50 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Looks like two chances for some discrete action with it.
Don't care for the broken line on the southern end with that much shear either.
quote:
I've seen a few hodos that are huge, off the page.
Up into MS and your neck of the woods have been extremely impressive. Gonna be a number of QLCS tors when that line gets bowing.
Posted on 3/28/22 at 10:51 pm to Duke
Very windy in Alabama Wednesday—Georgia sucks and Mississippi blows!
Posted on 3/28/22 at 11:00 pm to Duke
The SW AL area will be interesting, too, if cells go up. Dews pushing 70 with temps near 80. CAPE is good, the Supercell composite is high. Other composites are high-ish.
From those best looking UDH swaths in MS to the SE into AL wouldn't be a terrible area to target if one were wanting to chase this.
From those best looking UDH swaths in MS to the SE into AL wouldn't be a terrible area to target if one were wanting to chase this.
Posted on 3/28/22 at 11:09 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
From those best looking UDH swaths in MS to the SE into AL wouldn't be a terrible area to target if one were wanting to chase this
Cant think of anything Id rather to than chase a conditional tor risk ahead of a rocking QLCS in rural Mississippi and Alabama.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 1:24 am to Duke
Tornado 
WINDThis post was edited on 3/29/22 at 1:27 am
Posted on 3/29/22 at 2:46 am to lsuman25
Does that moderate zone extend a little further south of where the enhanced zone was set up yesterday?
Posted on 3/29/22 at 5:30 am to lsuman25
Well this isn’t what I wanted to wake up to
Posted on 3/29/22 at 5:32 am to deltaland
This is going to be a major wind event. Both due to high gradient winds away from thunderstorms, and then damaging straight line winds with the squall line. Mix in embedded tornadoes within the line and it’s going to be a real mess.
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 5:34 am
Posted on 3/29/22 at 5:39 am to Roll Tide Ravens
I wonder if any area will get a high threat upgrade.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 6:06 am to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
That central Mississippi corridor is the new tornado speedway.
Nothing new about that
Posted on 3/29/22 at 6:16 am to deltaland
One concern is the simple fact that people do not take severe thunderstorm warnings as seriously as tornado warnings. Tomorrow and tomorrow night will be a situation where people need to treat them similarly, particularly people who live in a mobile home or who have lots of trees surrounding their home.
This post was edited on 3/29/22 at 6:17 am
Posted on 3/29/22 at 6:18 am to Duke
It sad as no one expected a tornado to hit Arabi. In BTR everyone prepared and nothing.
Further South they had a tornado.
Problem I see is people cry wolf and nothing happens. Which is good in a sense as we don’t want people to get hit with tornados. We just don’t usually see tornados down here like they do in the Midwest.
Next thing you know people don’t prepare and a big one hits.
Further South they had a tornado.
Problem I see is people cry wolf and nothing happens. Which is good in a sense as we don’t want people to get hit with tornados. We just don’t usually see tornados down here like they do in the Midwest.
Next thing you know people don’t prepare and a big one hits.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 6:23 am to johnnyrocket
quote:
It sad as no one expected a tornado to hit Arabi. In BTR everyone prepared and nothing.
The New Orleans area was in the forecasted severe weather risk area, was in the tornado watch prior to any tornadoes in that area, and a tornado warning was issued before the tornado hit.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 6:52 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
One concern is the simple fact that people do not take severe thunderstorm warnings as seriously as tornado warnings.
Too many severe thunderstorm warnings get issued. Even when those warnings are for a very small area 99.999% of the time it is just a normal thunderstorm that everyone has seen a thousand times. Any time it rains and there is a lot of lightning they are quick to issue severe thunderstorm warning, so nobody pays attention anymore,
Posted on 3/29/22 at 7:00 am to lsuman25
Oh for frick's sake
Posted on 3/29/22 at 7:03 am to udtiger
is this going to be more of a wind/tornado(possibly) event? i see nothing on radar as of this morning indicating a rainstorm heading east.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 7:21 am to Roll Tide Ravens
An all day wind event is more widespread than a single tornado.
Of course getting caught in a tornado is the worst case, but tornadoes are extremely localized.
A widespread wind event could bring about a somewhat minor, yet widespread damage area typical of a tropical storm in hurricane season.
Of course getting caught in a tornado is the worst case, but tornadoes are extremely localized.
A widespread wind event could bring about a somewhat minor, yet widespread damage area typical of a tropical storm in hurricane season.
Posted on 3/29/22 at 7:24 am to T
quote:
Too many severe thunderstorm warnings get issued. Even when those warnings are for a very small area 99.999% of the time it is just a normal thunderstorm that everyone has seen a thousand times. Any time it rains and there is a lot of lightning they are quick to issue severe thunderstorm warning, so nobody pays attention anymore,
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but there used to be a public severe thunderstorm warning and an aviation severe thunderstorm warning. The public severe thunderstorm warning had a wind threshold of 74 or 75+ mph while the aviation threshold was the 58+ mph criteria used today. The two separate warnings were merged.
I tried a few Google searches and didn't find a result that backed this up, but I am confident that I read this from a seemingly credible source years ago.
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