- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:25 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:You are ignoring the crux of the problem by taking the OP as literally you pick door #1, and Monty picks door #3, end of story. By doing so, there is no point in having 3 doors, and he might as well open door #3 before you even choose.
The car is behind #1:
I switch, I lose.
I stay, I win.
The car is behind door #2:
I switch, I win.
I stay, I lose.
NOW ADD THE OTHER POSSIBLE OUTCOMES TO THIS LIST.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:25 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:There are only two choices... either pick door #1 or door #2.
Show me. Add the two other outcomes to the list.
But the results of those two choices are not even.
If you stay, you will only win 33% of the time, and if you switch you will win 67% of the time.
Think of it in terms of sports. If the Cleveland Cavs play the Detroit Pistons 100 times, Cleveland might win 67 games and Detroit might win 33 games.
If you were betting on the games, there are only two outcomes. If you pick Cleveland to win, they can either win or they lose.
But the probability that Cleveland wins is not 50/50. There is a 67% chance that Cleveland wins the game even though there are only two possible outcomes.
It's a similar concept here with the doors.
You only have two choices, but each choice is not 50/50. It's 33/67.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:27 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:
I'm considering every factor LISTED IN THE OP.
Except for the title, which is "the Monty Hall problem" and is a well-known scenario.
So, in summary, you're a moron.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:28 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:YOu made it too hard.
PrimeTime Money
It's SIMPLE.
You will pick wrong 2 out of 3 times.
In the cases where you picked wrong, the door being "revealed" is revealing your other miss. Hence, switch and win. This means that in the 2 cases you picked wrong, you win. That's 2/3 chance of winning with swtich.
In the cases where you picked right, switching loses. Since you only picked right 1 out of 3 times, this means your chances of losing by switching are 1 in 3
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:28 pm to Korkstand
quote:
You are ignoring the crux of the problem by taking the OP as literally you pick door #1, and Monty picks door #3, end of story. By doing so, there is no point in having 3 doors, and he might as well open door #3 before you even choose.
No, I'm arguing the problem as stated in the OP - you are arguing every aspect of the game, which means the problem in the OP is poorly stated.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:28 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Not quite
Exactly quite.
Revealing all goats by chance until one door is left is the same as picking that one door without revealing any goats and offering the chance to switch. If there are 10 doors, then the player had a 1/10 chance at the start of the game, and the other door had a 1/10 chance, just like all the doors had. 1/10 = 1/10, so there's no benefit in switching. quote:
Your odds of being correct can never increase from 1/3 if you don't switch.
In the case you're talking about, your odds have improved from 1/n to 1/2. It doesn't matter if you switch; it doesn't help.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:29 pm to LSUBoo
quote:Every time this problem gets discussed, someone plays the "hey, I'm too stupid to know what the Monty hall problem is" shtick.
Except for the title, which is "the Monty Hall problem" and is a well-known scenario.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:29 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:The scenario in the OP specifically states that it is the Monty Hall problem, which is a very well known problem with a very well known correct solution.
I'm not arguing the odds of the 3 doors game when switching - I'm arguing the specific scenario in the OP. The explanation of the "switch odds" includes the car being behind #3. That is NOT the scenario in the OP.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:29 pm to LSUBoo
quote:
Except for the title, which is "the Monty Hall problem" and is a well-known scenario.
So, in summary, you're a moron.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:30 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:
You don't get it. I'm not arguing the odds of the 3 doors game when switching - I'm arguing the specific scenario in the OP. The explanation of the "switch odds" includes the car being behind #3. That is NOT the scenario in the OP. You people are arguing a whole different scenario than the OP. I listed every possible outcome of the Op scenario. If it is different, you should be able to list 2/3 of the scenarios as wins.
You are listing possible outcomes after the problem has been changed by revealing a goat. So, since the problem has been changed with a known result, the two outcomes do not have equal chances of being correct anymore in this case. This is because by switching you are essentially given the option of choosing both doors 2 and 3 as opposed to staying and choosing door 1. I assume you would like to choose the one with a higher probability of having a car - which would be to switch doors.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:30 pm to Spock's Eyebrow
quote:
In the case you're talking about, your odds have improved from 1/n to 1/2. It doesn't matter if you switch; it doesn't help.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:30 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:
No, I'm arguing the problem as stated in the OP
Which is one out of six hypothetical scenarios of "the Monty Hall problem."
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:32 pm to ShortyRob
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:32 pm to Sneaky__Sally
For people who watch regularly, they know if or how often he helps and how often he baits into giving up the car door.
Thats the only factor worth discussing.
Whether you stay with door 1 or switch to door 2, its 50/50 at moment of this tease/help.
Thats the only factor worth discussing.
Whether you stay with door 1 or switch to door 2, its 50/50 at moment of this tease/help.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:32 pm to ShortyRob
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:32 pm to Spock's Eyebrow
quote:
In the case you're talking about, your odds have improved from 1/n to 1/2. It doesn't matter if you switch; it doesn't help.
Exactly. The odds change because you get to reselect (i.e., start over) - not because you switch.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:33 pm to CelticDog
quote:
Whether you stay with door 1 or switch to door 2, its 50/50 at moment of this tease/help.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:34 pm to LSUBoo
quote:
Which is one out of six hypothetical scenarios of "the Monty Hall problem."
Precisely. And in that ONE scenario, there are four possible outcomes. 2 win and 2 lose. 50/50
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:37 pm to ShortyRob
Next y'all are going to try to tell me that the bible, like the OP, is not meant to be taken literally and that we didn't all descend from Adam and Eve. 
Page 9 of 13
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News