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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:52 pm to SATNIGHTS
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:52 pm to SATNIGHTS
quote:
With two storms so close I would have to think that they will affect each other’s steering dynamics some, no? Do the models take that into account?
Yes the models will take that into account but depends on how strong each is on the model vs reality.
0
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:53 pm to Pedro
quote:
As to how they factor steering mechanisms I don’t remember exactly since it’s been a few years since I took tropical but yea.
I figure the most likely impact would be 14 weakening the ATL ridge on exit and having 13 slide farther east but that's a function of 14's strength and timing.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:54 pm to rt3
Looking at those gradients I’d say probably a 3 maybe low end chance of a 4
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:58 pm to Pedro
What's concerning about these storms is they don't really have any data to go on since this has never happened before. The models haven't been good so far this hurricane season and even now you have to question stuff like the intensity forecasts on TD14 since it could ramp up sitting in hot waters without much to impede it. Doesn't seem like the models are accounting for this much. There's more shear over the Gulf projected and how that impacts the intensity isn't certain due to the land interaction it's going to do. Of course this is assuming the shear happens like the models are predicting over the Gulf. There's still a lot of questions with both storms but I'm kinda nervous on these a bit.
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:04 pm to deuce985
We could have a TS zeroing in on Sabine Pass and a hurricane zeroing in on the mouth-of-the river by Tuesday. 
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:08 pm to Pedro
Leps got the face shield out with no mask during class. I guess that's his form of self protest.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:12 pm to The Boat
I would imagine that 14 ‘ upper outflow would induce a downstream trough to the east causing 13 to turn more northerly before southeast Florida.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:15 pm to Klingler7
quote:
I would imagine that 14 ‘ upper outflow would induce a downstream trough to the east causing 13 to turn more northerly before southeast Florida.
I'm not sure the timing would work for a turn that soon but I'm with you on the idea of 14 opening an earlier N and NE turn for 13.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:16 pm to rds dc
14 looks like it could be a bitch, it has convection all around.
13 is very lopsided and has work to do before it can strengthen much
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:19 pm to SATNIGHTS
quote:
With two storms so close I would have to think that they will affect each other’s steering dynamics some, no? Do the models take that into account?
Well Ill try an anser here but One storm is deep in the Carribean and has to go through Mexico whih could tear it apart... The other storm looks like it will miss any land mass that could harm it. which is not good.. However there is a HIGH pressure system in the Atlantic that will shape where this storm goes......If the high pressure seems to go away. it will be effecting the second storm and make it go north instead of west..............
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:19 pm to deltaland
Hopefully 14 gets named first because it would really grind my OCD gears if the storm that's farther out got the "earlier" name.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:21 pm to dukke v
quote:
Well Ill try an anser here
Please don't
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:22 pm to The Boat
quote:
Hopefully 14 gets named first because it would really grind my OCD gears if the storm that's farther out got the "earlier" name.
The 97L & 98L swap to TD14 & TD13 was rough enough.
Snip snap, snip snap.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:22 pm to The Boat
The first shall be last and the last shall be first.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:26 pm to dukke v
quote:
has to go through Mexico whih could tear it apart
No it won't. Yucatan is flat and marshy. Stop posting about stuff you know nothing about.
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 2:27 pm
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:28 pm to PurpleGoldTiger
at flight level the HH are finding 30-34 kts (35-40 mph)...
don't know if they'll find that at the surface though
don't know if they'll find that at the surface though
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:29 pm to rt3
Which one?
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:29 pm to rt3
Could have 14 be an open wave ? Don’t see pressures less than 1010 mb and Southeast winds at 800 gpm
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:32 pm to Duke
quote:
Which one?
they're only in TD14 at the moment... don't see a plane headed to TD13 yet
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:32 pm to Klingler7
quote:
Could have 14 be an open wave ?
It's still hauling at like 18 mph, so wouldn't be surprised if there really isn't much of a west wind there. I'm sure they'll keep it a depression officially but I was surprised they gave it the designation initially.
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