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2
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:41 pm to GEAUXmedic
This is what I want to see. HWRF has been the best, by far, with the short term. Curious to compare where it has this entering the Gulf as compared to the GFS and models who go West. If it agrees then I will feel much better about not having to worry about Laura.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:41 pm to tgrgrd00
quote:
But I noticed the ridge to be a little larger this run, or at least a little more pronounced to the SW.
I see it. It's just not that different and I suspect has as much to do with Laura having less influence by being farther away and weaker at the time.
That being said, this is a good observation you're making on the subtle changes in the strength of the ridge can make subtle differences in the landfall.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:42 pm to GEAUXmedic
I’ve been so focused on the first storm and it’s strength, that I didn’t consider it complicating things when it comes to evacuating if Marco strengthens significantly
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:44 pm to Duke
quote:
That being said, this is a good observation you're making on the subtle changes in the strength of the ridge can make subtle differences in the landfall.
Which explains the larger than normal spread in ensembles we have been seeing. This set up is just not ideal for reliable predictions.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:44 pm to slackster
quote:
Was it TWC making the cones?
The cones have a 38% rate and have shifted by 300+ miles in the last 2 days...... as said earlier, Tomorrow night, Monday morning is when you really pay attention
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:45 pm to Mr. Hangover
Does anyone know if there is an official criteria for evacuating NOLA?
Just curious on the what if in a projection of Laura increasing to a three while Marco is over our heads.
Just curious on the what if in a projection of Laura increasing to a three while Marco is over our heads.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:45 pm to fightin tigers
I’m further south than Nola 
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:45 pm to Dlab2013
quote:
Marco is done with the shear it’s gonna encounter. It’ll be pushed East of Nola with some rain in MS and Fla.......
Laura is the wild card.
Idiot.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:46 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
I’m further south than Nola
Think you can turn on a fan or two and point them southwest. Might not do much, but it can't hurt
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:48 pm to Dlab2013
quote:
The cones have a 38% rate and have shifted by 300+ miles in the last 2 days...... as said earlier, Tomorrow night, Monday morning is when you really pay attention
That's not true regarding the cones.
They're one standard deviation from the mean of the last 5 years. That traditionally captures roughly 2/3rds of errors.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:48 pm to slackster
quote:
For someone who "makes a living because of the weather," you sure do make posts as if you've never been humbled by a prediction. The NHC says plenty still to go, but Tigerdroppings poster Dlab2013 has it all figured out.
I’ll bet you right now Both systems don’t hit NOLA......This is what TWC is pumping....it’s not going to happen.
And yes, in threads like these we have all been wrong, along with the media.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:49 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Damn Slackster, you got me to upvote you.
I'm a net asset in these threads, but it's close. The downvoters can suck a dick.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:50 pm to Dlab2013
quote:
I’ll bet you right now Both systems don’t hit NOLA....
So you are taking the 1000 miles of gulf coast vs a city 10 miles wide.
Bold prediction.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:51 pm to Dlab2013
quote:
I’ll bet you right now Both systems don’t hit NOLA......This is what TWC is pumping....it’s not going to happen.
Anyone that's been here for at least one season knows how TWC operates. We spend the entire thread clowning them.
The NHC is a different story altogether. They're about as bland and uninteresting as you'll find. Hell, there is only a single forecaster there that is even remotely entertaining - Blake - and he stands out for that very reason.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:53 pm to GEAUXmedic
When does HWRF run complete?
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:53 pm to slackster
quote:
That's not true regarding the cones.
They're one standard deviation from the mean of the last 5 years. That traditionally captures roughly 2/3rds of errors.
And they typically have Air Liner guidance to help them with the forecast.......14,000 employees in the industry have been laid off. Less planes traveling = less guidance info.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:53 pm to slackster
Still can't believe how close the HWRF was in predicting presentation and location.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 11:55 pm to GEAUXmedic
Does that mean anything for future predictions or is it kind of like even a blind mouse finding cheese?
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