re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

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Stephanie Abrams.

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Two runs in a row GFS has done this, don’t be surprised to see a shift west in track guidance.

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omeone post the map where these 2 storms are heading please

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In a rare interaction not seen since September 1933, we have the prospect of two named storms located within the boundaries of the Gulf of Mexico. The nearness of Laura and Marco adds to an already complex forecast scenario. Now while Marco may seem the stronger of the systems, keep in mind that most guidance projects Laura to emerge as the bigger tropical cyclone with an identifiable eye and best potential to climb above Category 1 status. Marco has shear issues aloft which will be quelled only when the core of the storm is nearing the coastline of Louisiana on Monday. After that point, ridging across the Old South will prevent any real latitude gain, and force the circulation westward. With the broader swirl of Laura approaching, and passing over warm waters of the open Gulf, I suspect Marco breaks up just below Sabine Pass by Tuesday morning.

If the ridging described holds, and I think it will, a by-then-Hurricane Laura will slow and turn west-northwest upon approach to southern Louisiana. I tend to favor those models that point toward a "Marco trail effect", which would lead Laura into southeast Texas or southwest Louisiana, something just to the left of the GFS scheme and somewhat along the lines of the UKMET panels on early Thursday. Basically, that would mean anyone living along a line from just west of the Houston/Galveston TX metro to perhaps Baton Rouge LA on the east will have some rough weather as the eye edges inland on a northwest, then due north course. I will say now that the right flank of Laura may be a prominent tornado and flooding rain producer, involving interests along the "Energy Corridor", Interstate 10. TX and LA will likely not be done with this feature until sometime late Friday night, when the center of lowest pressure moves into southern Arkansas and proceeds to link with a frontal structure passing through the Midwest.

So, wrapped up in a nutshell, here is a "best guess" prediction for the two storms that are being called a "forecaster's nightmare":

Hurricane Marco: brief skirmish landfall at Grand Isle LA on late Monday afternoon, top wind speeds then 55 mph after peak on Sunday of about 80 mph in the Gulf of Mexico. Most rainfall issues in southern LA, but some thunderstorms could occupy the southeasternmost counties of TX. Marco may break up below the coastline of TX and be drawn into the circulation of Laura.

Hurricane Laura: emerges from Hispaniola and then Cuba to enjoy a two-day period of organization and strengthening into a Category 2 storm. Peak winds may be near 120 mph at core, with eventual landfall early Thursday in the SE TX "Golden Triangle". A west/northwest jog may bring this system close to Houston before a north turn to Texarkana AR in the wee hours of Saturday. Rain totals may exceed 8 inches in spots with tornado threats in easternmost counties of Texas, most of Louisiana, and southwestern Mississippi.

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