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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/17/22 at 9:32 am to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 3/17/22 at 9:32 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:We all are
Or I could be completely wrong and am just blowing smoke out of my arse.
0
Posted on 3/17/22 at 9:34 am to WeeWee
That definitely looks like a legit site
Posted on 3/17/22 at 9:40 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I think the best bet would be for Poland/Romania to enter the fight outside of the NATO framework and help Ukraine on their own. I believe that could avoid a NATO/Russia war and end things in Ukraine rather quickly.
Call me emotional, I want a piece of that Russian arse. I want to see woodland camo Abrams blowing the turrets off that junk they call a tank, I want to see the hundreds of Apaches mobilized now making pass after pass over those columns. I want to see F35s and F22s shooting that 40 year junk out of the sky.
Do we need to do that? no. The Russian conventional military is done.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 9:42 am to Lakeboy7
Do the Russians even have conventional straight leg infantry or do they just ride around in 40 year old POS vehicles waiting to get blown up?
Posted on 3/17/22 at 9:50 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I think the best bet would be for Poland/Romania to enter the fight outside of the NATO framework and help Ukraine on their own. I believe that could avoid a NATO/Russia war and end things in Ukraine rather quickly.
Why the frick would they do that?
That would do nothing but get them punched in the mouth, and escalate the conflict further. Poland, Romania, and Ukraine cannot beat the Russians either. Are we going to just keep expanding that circle? Poland and Romania could defend their own countries, but neither has any forces large or effective enough for offensive operations in Ukraine/Russia.This post was edited on 3/17/22 at 9:52 am
Posted on 3/17/22 at 9:54 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Do the Russians even have conventional straight leg infantry or do they just ride around in 40 year old POS vehicles waiting to get blown up?
I think we in the West are failing to understand what is really going on and assuming that simply because Russia hasn't taken Kiev in a few weeks that somehow Russia has or is going to lose.
Russia doesn't have the military capacity of the U.S. but it still has a military that is an order of magnitude better than the Ukraine. Ukraine has put 100% of its resources into this fight, Russia has not.
Russia can mobilize over a million men from its reserves and get them into the Ukraine over the next several months.
Putin doesn't have to win this month, or next month to win, he's got time. I am not sure how much time Ukraine ultimately has.
Hitler got all the way to the doorstep of Moscow and still lost because he underestimated the will of the Russian people. Napoleon did the same thing a hundred years earlier.
Putin and his regime aren't controlled by what Twitter and CNN think, they are in this to win, and they will pay whatever price is required, and that may mean a long and protracted conflict in the Ukraine in which the people of that country will ultimately be the biggest losers.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 9:54 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Do the Russians even have conventional straight leg infantry or do they just ride around in 40 year old POS vehicles waiting to get blown up?
They are "mechanized" infantry.
Their doctrine going back to to 1939 Winter War has ALWAYS been Deep Strike. Long heavy mechanized line moving quickly through enemy units to gain ground and disrupt disrupt enemy lines, comms, supply. Great doctrine on paper but in reality you bypass whole, combat effective units and the disruption to comms and supply isnt that great. The Finns and the Germans would cede ground, just skirmishing, then attack week points in the column and separate the column into pieces. Then pound the shite out of the pieces until they were gone.
And they did the same thing in Ukraine???? The whole thing has been surreal to watch.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 9:55 am to Indefatigable
quote:
Why the frick would they do that?
Because this conflict affects them more than anyone not named Ukraine and if Russia has shown us anything it’s that their army can be defeated in the field. I truly believe that an alliance of Eastern European countries could defeat the Russian army in Ukraine without little to no help from NATO at this point.
I don’t believe Putin would go nuclear if the Eastern Europeans got involved outside of the NATO framework.
It’s a much better option than NATO itself taking action.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:00 am to Vito Andolini
Putin doesn't have 1,000,000 troops
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:00 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
I want to see F35s and F22s shooting that 40 year junk out of the sky.
One of my neighbor's kids is in flight school. He is running 18's daily, and quite often in the 35's. He gets out of school in August.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:00 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
The Finns and the Germans would cede ground, just skirmishing, then attack week points in the column and separate the column into pieces. Then pound the shite out of the pieces until they were gone.
The oddest part of the Russian approach to invading Ukraine is that they essentially did all of this for the Ukranians.
They split their columns and couldn't supply them, making the smaller groups relatively easy pickings. They gave no, or limited air cover to larger columns. They had armored units with no infantry, infantry units with little armor. It was a haphazard mess of an invasion that can only really be explained as Russia underestimating its enemy. That is an intelligence failure that has to really grind on Putin.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:00 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Because this conflict affects them more than anyone not named Ukraine and if Russia has shown us anything it’s that their army can be defeated in the field. I truly believe that an alliance of Eastern European countries could defeat the Russian army in Ukraine without little to no help from NATO at this point.
I don’t believe Putin would go nuclear if the Eastern Europeans got involved outside of the NATO framework.
It’s a much better option than NATO itself taking action.
But here's the thing, if Poland/Slovakia, etc decide to go rogue and effectively declare war on Russia by joining the fight, they are by definition outside of the NATO alliance.
The NATO security guarantee only applies when you are attacked, not whenever you decide to go to war on your own (e.g. NATO did not join our war in Vietnam, Panama, Gulf War I, etc. for this very reason).
So if Poland decides to say f*ck it, we are going in, they are on their own, and no other NATO country is obliged to lift a finger to help them.
They know that, and that is why this kind of talk is all bullsh*t.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:00 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I truly believe that an alliance of Eastern European countries could defeat the Russian army in Ukraine without little to no help from NATO at this point.
Then you are a fool. Russia has only put a fraction of its military resources into this invasion. Their military dwarfs the every military east of the Oder/Danube rivers combined.
Other than Poland, none of the other nations even have a fully functioning air force, and their navies are mostly *literally* non-existent.
They joined NATO precisely because they stand zero chance on their own. Do not let bad Russian logistics over a three week period convince you otherwise.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:01 am to Vito Andolini
quote:
Russia can mobilize over a million men from its reserves and get them into the Ukraine over the next several months.
I'm curious after seeing their "regular" army troops and their condition what level of quality do you think these "reservist" will be? if they even show up.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:04 am to Vito Andolini
quote:
But here's the thing, if Poland/Slovakia, etc decide to go rogue and effectively declare war on Russia by joining the fight, they are by definition outside of the NATO alliance.
That’s the entire point.
I think those countries combined could defeat Russia in the Ukraine.
This post was edited on 3/17/22 at 10:05 am
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:04 am to phunkatron
quote:.
Putin doesn't have 1,000,000 troops
Yes he does, it is called reserves.
Russia still has universal conscription.
There are millions of men in Russia who have served their time in the army and who are still part of their reserves.
He can't ramp them up overnight and get them in the field, but he can get them mobilized and into the fight within a few months.
By then, the West's attention will be elsewhere, because that is what we do. We weep for Syria and demand action, until we don't. We weep for Yemen and demand action, until we don't.
The same will happen in Ukraine.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:04 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
The oddest part of the Russian approach to invading Ukraine is that they essentially did all of this for the Ukranians.
They literally did what the did in WW2......the same doctrine that got millions, I say millions of their soldiers killed.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:06 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I think those countries combined could defeat Russia in the Ukraine.
The war would not be contained in Ukraine in your hypo. Russia would sweep all the way to the Baltic Sea very very easily without NATO there to defend Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania, and they would quickly have Poland in a pincer between attacks from Belarus and Kaliningrad.
It is a very very bad idea.
This post was edited on 3/17/22 at 10:09 am
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:08 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
The oddest part of the Russian approach to invading Ukraine is that they essentially did all of this for the Ukranians.
They split their columns and couldn't supply them, making the smaller groups relatively easy pickings. They gave no, or limited air cover to larger columns. They had armored units with no infantry, infantry units with little armor. It was a haphazard mess of an invasion that can only really be explained as Russia underestimating its enemy. That is an intelligence failure that has to really grind on Putin.
Agreed, by all indications their planning and/or their execution has been poor, but just like in 1941 and 1942, I suspect they are learning some valuable lessons.
Nothing teaches humans better than adversity.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:08 am to Indefatigable
quote:
Then you are a fool. Russia has only put a fraction of its military resources into this invasion.
Correct, and that fraction is 75% of their active formations are in Ukraine, and of that 75% about 15% has degraded to "combat ineffective" status.
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