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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:15 am to Chromdome35
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:15 am to Chromdome35
Can we pause the emotional team Russia vs Team Ukraine emotional pissing match long enough to actually get an update on what’s actually happening in the war, at least as best we can tell taking into account everything we hear comes through some sort of propaganda prism?
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:16 am
1
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:18 am to OMLandshark
quote:
And you are indeed correct:
BREAKING Russian airlines ordered to stop selling tickets to Russian men aged 18 to 65
saw on twitter this morning there is traffic all the way from Moscow thru St. Petersburg up to the Finnish boarder. And there is a solid line of cars at a stand still stretching 35 km from the boarder.
Fun how people are all gung-ho for war till they or their family might have to actually fight in one.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:22 am to Palmetto98
quote:
A lot of emotionally distraught posters in this thread
The funny thing is that this anti-American, Russian troll probably poses as a "patriot" in the Poliboard.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:22 am to Darth_Vader
As I understand it, the current status is this:
In the East, Ukraine is making small incremental gains in the Lyman/Severdontesk area. Ukraine has crossed the Oskil river north of Lyman and is pressuring Lyman from multiple directions.
In the area just to the south of that, Russia continues probing attacks around Bakhmut, but is making no gains.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1572589693820182528
In the south, the Ukrainian offensive appears to be stalled with no major movements at this time.
Map of current situation
In the East, Ukraine is making small incremental gains in the Lyman/Severdontesk area. Ukraine has crossed the Oskil river north of Lyman and is pressuring Lyman from multiple directions.
In the area just to the south of that, Russia continues probing attacks around Bakhmut, but is making no gains.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1572589693820182528
quote:
Russian forces are launching heavy assaults east of Bakhmut they are unable to make progress due to the fortified Ukrainian positions around the area.
Heavy fighting continues around the M03 and T0504 Intersection.
In the south, the Ukrainian offensive appears to be stalled with no major movements at this time.
Map of current situation
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:26 am
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:23 am to joemuggs
quote:
saw on twitter this morning there is traffic all the way from Moscow thru St. Petersburg up to the Finnish boarder.
For some perspective, it’s almost 450 miles to go from Moscow to St. Petersburg.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:23 am to Palmetto98
quote:You seem to be caught up, like many, in trying to wedge this particular conflict into the U.S. domestic red/blue political paradigm, which is why we have both over-the-top Ukraine cheerleaders (see Twitter for flags and sunflowers in bios) as well as Putin shills (see Poliboard). Ukraine is admittedly an extremely corruptible country, but they provide a useful buffer between NATO allies and a geopolitical foe. We stand to gain nothing with a Russian takeover, particularly now with the sunk billions in defense aid. The libertarian in me hates both our political and monetary entanglement in all of this to begin with, but given where we are at this point it makes no sense to root for Russia as far as I can tell.
A lot of emotionally distraught posters in this thread
For what it's worth I don't see a lot of the over-the-top cheerleading in this thread given the wealth of solid resources available to assess where the conflict stands, though the way everything has unfolded (and the fact we're Americans) certainly lends itself to a pro-Ukraine bend.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 11:26 am
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:25 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Chromdome35
So from what I’m reading in your post it looks like the Ukrainian offensive has run out of steam and a period of consolidation, perhaps stalemate, is developing.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:30 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
So from what I’m reading in your post it looks like the Ukrainian offensive has run out of steam and a period of consolidation, perhaps stalemate, is developing.
I think the offensive from 2 weeks ago in the east is on hiatus or much slowed down. I suspect they are regrouping, repositioning and preparing to retake the balance of the eastern part of the country that they lost since Feb 24.
In the south, they just don't seem to be pushing very hard. They are pushing hard enough that Russia has to stay committed to defending it. I think is partly due to the difference in terrain of the two areas. The east is much more wooded and hilly than the areas around Kherson.
Summary, I don't disagree with you at this point, but things can change quickly.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:34 am to joemuggs
quote:
saw on twitter this morning there is traffic all the way from Moscow thru St. Petersburg up to the Finnish boarder. And there is a solid line of cars at a stand still stretching 35 km from the boarder.
That twitter post is being disputed. Wait for more confirmation.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:35 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I think the offensive from 2 weeks ago in the east is on hiatus or much slowed down. I suspect they are regrouping, repositioning and preparing to retake the balance of the eastern part of the country that they lost since Feb 24.
Not surprised they’re having to at least pause. While what Ukraine has done in their offensive is impressive, I knew their limit on what they could achieve is primarily logistics. Not many armies in the world can sustain a serious offensive for more than a short span of time before logistics brings them to a standstill.
Now what they have to to do is consolidate their gains while getting their logistics in order to support further operations. The question is can they do this fast enough to keep the Russians from forming a solid defensive line, or, though less likely, build up forces for a counter-offensive before the Ukrainians are ready to resume the offensive.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:36 am to Chromdome35
This is a post from Chuck Pfarrer, he is part of the Ukrainian Media and has posted unconfirmed information as fact before. Consume with that in mind.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1572561733063151617
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1572561733063151617
quote:
KHERSON/1215 UTC 21 SEP/ UKR Gen’l Staff reported 21 close air sorties had interdicted RU targets. UKR air defense (AD) claimed 4 Russian UAVs. On 20 SEP, there were reports that an Iranian supplied Shaheed-136 UCAV was downed on the M-14 HWY axis. 2 RU SAM complexes destroyed.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:39 am to Darth_Vader
Its a great question and I agree logistics will be what ultimately determines Ukraines success or failure.
We are seeing the failure of Russian logistics and the result of it in real-time.
Wee Wee has made multiple posts discussing the horrendous state of Ukrainian roads and the challenges of supplying an army via them. Russia's reliance on rail is clearly hurting them as you only have to take out the railroads to cripple the Russian offensive.
We are seeing the failure of Russian logistics and the result of it in real-time.
Wee Wee has made multiple posts discussing the horrendous state of Ukrainian roads and the challenges of supplying an army via them. Russia's reliance on rail is clearly hurting them as you only have to take out the railroads to cripple the Russian offensive.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:42 am to Chromdome35
More from Pfarrer on the Izium area. Consume with caution.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1572626087842123782
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1572626087842123782
quote:
IZIUM/1645 UTC 21 SEP/ UKR precision strike munitions destroyed RU ammunition depots at Svatove and Novoaidar. Deeply inserted Ukrainian SOF continues to feed targeting data on RU lines of communication and supply.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:45 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
quote:saw on twitter this morning there is traffic all the way from Moscow thru St. Petersburg up to the Finnish boarder. For some perspective, it’s almost 450 miles to go from Moscow to St. Petersburg.
That’s the Zrlendky motorcade. He was in Russia and now he’s headed to St. Pete.
;-)
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:45 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Its a great question and I agree logistics will be what ultimately determines Ukraines success or failure.
We are seeing the failure of Russian logistics and the result of it in real-time.
Not surprising. The Russians have never been good at logistics going back to the Napoleonic wars. It’s like they have some sort of generic mutation that makes it impossible to grasp the concept.
quote:
Wee Wee has made multiple posts discussing the horrendous state of Ukrainian roads and the challenges of supplying an army via them. Russia's reliance on rail is clearly hurting them as you only have to take out the railroads to cripple the Russian offensive.
This has always been the limiting factor in offensive operations for armies operating in Ukraine. And this situation is about to get a whole lot worse with the arrival of the Fall Rasputitsa, which should already be starting.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:53 am to Chromdome35
A Twitter thread by Mark Hertling (former Commander of the US Army in Europe)
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571676524838915
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571676524838915
quote:
Putin's announced mobilization of 300,000 "reservists" was jaw-dropping to me this morning, but not for the reason some might suspect.
Why? Because know how Russian soldiers are trained, in basic training & in their units.
A brief ?? on some fun facts. 1/
While I commanded US Army Europe before retiring, before that I commanded all basic & advanced soldier training for the Army (2009-11).
During that period,˜150,000 new soldiers/year at (then) 5 basic training sites & 21 advanced training locations, received training.2/
Most new US soldiers get 10 weeks of basic training (some get more at one-station unit training (OSUT) sites, like infantry, artillery, MPs). Those that don't go to OSUT travel off to different length courses for advanced training in a "specialty" (logistics, intel, etc). 3/
It's a long period of time, trained by very professional drill sergeants. There is an extremely high resource overhead to all this.
Soldiers report to their units ready to be integrated in the specific mission.
Remember, the US population is 344 million & we train˜150k. 4/
Russia, on the other hand, has a population of 144 million citizens, spread over 11 time zones.
Theirs is a conscript force w/ 1 basic training site, (Labinsk in S. Russia). Some RU get advanced specialty training, but most RU soldiers get most training in their 1st unit. 5/
Russian soldiers got just a few days of basic training before being sent to Belarus starting last November (pre-invasion).
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/20/russia-sends-army-recruits-to-fight-in-ukraine-after-just-days-of-training-a78314
During 2 visits to RU, I saw basic & unit training. It was awful. Familiarization versus qualification on rifles, rudimentary first aid, very few simulations to conserve resources, and...most importantly...horrible leadership by "drill sergeants." 7/
Officers admitted to me that theirs was a "one year" force, with some - the poorest - volunteering or being elected for leadership roles. 8/
Remember, RU soldiers get almost ALL training in units vs at basic.
How units are resourced play a big part.
One tank unit i visited near Moscow proudly told me they get 1 tank round/crew each year (US units spend hours in simulators & crews fire dozens of real rounds/year). 9/
BTW, Ukraine's army has taken the US model to heart after receiving training from US personnel in both individual and unit training techniques since 2014.
The establishment of JMTG-U by US Army, Europe was instrumental in that. Heres a link to that. 10/
https://www.eucom.mil/topic/jmtg-u
But I digress...
The issue is the Russian army is poorly led & poorly trained. That starts in basic training, and doesn't get better during the RU soldier's time in uniform.
Mobilizing 300k "reservists" (after failing with depleted conventional forces, rag-tag militias...11/
...recruiting prisoners & using paramilitaries like the Wagner group) will be extremely difficult.
And placing "newbies" on a front line that has been mauled, has low morale & who don't want to be portends more RU disaster.
Jaw-dropping. A new sign of RU weakness 12/12
Posted on 9/21/22 at 11:59 am to Darth_Vader
Btw, love your modeling threads...I do a bit of armor modeling but am on a hiatus from it right now.
My SIL is a Capt stationed at Benning, a couple of years ago he got me a private tour of the Armor Restoration workshop. As a tank lover, I was in HEAVEN.
If you ever get a chance to go see that, you need to jump at it.
ETA a couple of pictures from it
Cutaway of a Tiger 2
Looking down the aisle
A couple of panthers waiting for their turn
Strikes on the armor of a Jagdtiger
My current modeling project, an 88 with photo etch and other additions.
My SIL is a Capt stationed at Benning, a couple of years ago he got me a private tour of the Armor Restoration workshop. As a tank lover, I was in HEAVEN.
If you ever get a chance to go see that, you need to jump at it.
ETA a couple of pictures from it
Cutaway of a Tiger 2
Looking down the aisle
A couple of panthers waiting for their turn
Strikes on the armor of a Jagdtiger
My current modeling project, an 88 with photo etch and other additions.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:01 pm to Chromdome35
None of that is surprising to hear about the state of Russian training. It’s always been piss poor. As for this…
I can speak to this directly, at least from the American tanker’s perspective. When he said we fire “dozens” of rounds per year, unless the Army has scaled back live-fire training for tank crews drastically since my time, which granted was 30 years ago, it’s a lot more than dozens.
quote:
One tank unit i visited near Moscow proudly told me they get 1 tank round/crew each year (US units spend hours in simulators & crews fire dozens of real rounds/year).
I can speak to this directly, at least from the American tanker’s perspective. When he said we fire “dozens” of rounds per year, unless the Army has scaled back live-fire training for tank crews drastically since my time, which granted was 30 years ago, it’s a lot more than dozens.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:04 pm to Chromdome35
It has been stated elsewhere that Ukraine rotates forces at the front to give them a breather. With that offensive being 24/7, troops must have been tired by the time they reached the Oskil River. Also the terrain changes east of the river and less conducive to fast moving offenses and more to the advantage of the defense. Lysychansk is above the surrounding area in elevation. Thus, it is a literal uphill battle.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 12:07 pm to Chromdome35
That thread was really good and enlightening.
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