re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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First, we are living in a post-invasion world.

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As noted.

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Second, it isn't as though Russia didn't already manipulate German energy markets

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To this degree...no.

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When have the Russians demonstrated ONCE that they know anything about combined arms operations? I'll wait

But the original path was set in 1981, which included both nuclear power and natural gas, and that path was changed during the tenure of the German chancellor who was closet to Putin. During that same tenure, Schroeder pushed Nord Stream, began the process of phasing out nuclear and made Germany entirely reliant on LNG. We have to be suspicious of those circumstances looking back, especially as Schroeder seemed to gain personally from being on Rosenft's board, as well as the independent director of Nord Stream. Being suspicious of those circumstances, relative to what we know now, helps us categorize the degree of importance of that move, both for the Germans and Russians. It doesn't suggest good-faith actors operating in an open market. It suggests something else entirely.

That is a degree of interference in domestic politics that signals one thing, and one thing alone, and that is that Russia's entire foreign policy is oriented around ensuring no competitors rise in LNG markets around the world. Given that they are so reliant on that resource, giving them the benefit of the doubt, apropos of nothing, is to be willfully naive. It also makes their relationship with Iran make sense as well as their interest in Syria. Thus, ceding ground to them now is just to kick the can down the road, given the sheer degree of bad-faith they showed in pre-invasion negotiations. Nothing occurs in a vacuum, especially geopolitics, and leaders, when acting in the interest of large states, have very long memories. The die has been cast and there isn't a way to reset the dial without a complete change in how the Russian elite view the world, where they've been so explicit I would be wary of anyone (not that you have) of assuming they will act honestly in international relations.

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The German people were more than aware of this, and chose to go along with the stupidity.

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I certainly don't see evidence of that. The most the Green Party, who were the primary party pushing against nuclear, never exceeded 20% of the total vote. Indeed, they only get involved in government through alliances. That aspect of parliamentary politics certainly doesn't suggest that either the German people were aware of the propaganda or wholesale approved of it. Some obviously did, but even the SPD/Green alliance in 2005 only represented something like 46% of the country. As soon as some of Schroder's connections were revealed after his chancellorship, opposition parties expressed concerns.

It seems odd to blame the German people wholesale when we know the politicians themselves who were involved, as the former scenario obliterates the entirety of differences in German politics and reduces them to something more vague which is somehow representative of the entirety of the German point of view. That's just not accurate nor do I find that particular method very useful.

The idea that Russia could leverage the entire energy market wasn't a serious concern until they did it. Now they cannot be trusted to act honestly in that market, there is little to be done in the short-term. Giving in to Russian demands doesn't solve the issue of Russian control. As of now, recent articles from the Washington Post, Nuclear Engineering International and Bloomberg indicate that Germany still is waffling on their planned phase-out of nuclear power, which if they do, is probably the best interim option (and also long-term option). I personally think actually experiencing an energy shortage would help sideline the Greens or at least get them to moderate their positions. Hopefully the entire world can get behind nuclear energy too, as it is a better option than most fuels.

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I certainly don't see evidence of that.

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As stated, my opinion was formed by my personal experiences over quite a long period of time.

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I personally think actually experiencing an energy shortage would help sideline the Greens or at least get them to moderate their positions. Hopefully the entire world can get behind nuclear energy too, as it is a better option than most fuels.

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I agree fully.

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Like you experience is a better teacher than citing any journalist.

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I personally find experience to be a good teacher.

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Chevron, Exxon and Shell signed multibillion dollar contracts with Urkaine in early 2014 to develop 3 separate oil/gas fields. How is that for incentive to Russia to invade to stop any competition! How dare lower cost production compete with the "Motherland"

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Don't forget the active fields in the Black Sea at the time where Russia just came in and stole all the privately owned rigs. Not only did it steal that oil and equipment it made is essentially impossible for Ukraine to enter into any other partnerships for extraction.

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The simple fact is for at least the next 6 months Ukraine will have to fight it out with their Soviet Migs and Su aircraft until they can have their pilots trained on any western aircraft but the longer they delay that decision the longer they have to maintain Soviet planes with very little Soviet parts.

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Yes which is why Ukraine is wanting all of the former Warsaw Pact's Migs and spare parts. Back in March Ukraine had 56 operational fighters of all types. Thanks to an increase in spare parts from former Warsaw Pact nations it has repaired and increased its inventory by 20 flyable aircraft ( LINK). It supposedly has a total of 112 Mig29s, Su24s, Su25s, and Su27s in its inventory although over 40 of these are still not in flyable due to 30 years of neglect. It is suppose to receive 11 Mig29s from Slovakia in September and it is still trying to acquire Poland's 23 Mig29s. If it can acquire Poland's Migs and enough spare parts to repair its remaining aircraft that would give the Ukrainian Air Force 146 fighter and ground attack planes. That should be enough to allow it to fight off the Russian air force (especially if Russia is not able to operate out of Crimea due to saboteurs and HIMARs and Hrim2s) long enough for the west to figure out how to supply them with western fighters and for the Ukrainian pilots to learn to fly and use them.

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Poland’s 23 Migs should already be there considering they have given them 200 tanks so it’s not like they are escalating things and the Polish are good at keeping their equipment maintained so they are most likely in the best possible flying condition relative to the age of the aircraft. Hopefully a good number of those aircraft stuck on the ground needing parts are Su-27. Poland has 23 Migs it could send but I would take a dozen Su-27 over 23 Mig-29 anytime.

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The Biden administration has a terrible relationship with Poland. That terrible relationship has kept the Biden admin from transferring surplus F16s to Poland to replace their Migs. That terrible relationship also caused Poland to buy replacement military equipment from South Korea instead of the USA.