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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/13/22 at 1:32 am to Shreveportolewarskul
Posted on 7/13/22 at 1:32 am to Shreveportolewarskul
Steering this conversation away from politics and back onto the realities of the ground, when you wake up in the morning what are your thoughts?
And no we don't want to hear Ukrainian or Russian propaganda. To the best you've discerned from the sources available to you, where are we at?
I believe Russia has hit their culmination point in the Donbas. But unlike a few months ago Ukraine can't exploit it. This leaves Kharkov/Izyum or Kerson as likely last ditch targets for offensive operations on both sides that could possibly achieve a breakthrough.
If Ukraine can retake Kherson then in theory the entire southern Russian donbas position is flanked. Forget Crimea. The Russians held it for months on 1941 against the best German General before his masterful breakthrough. No the course of action would be to strike tower meripotol and meriopol.
Fanciful but not impossible.
More likely than Russia breaking through Kahrkov or the donbass imo. Though all things being equal the Russians win in a static war of attrition.
And no we don't want to hear Ukrainian or Russian propaganda. To the best you've discerned from the sources available to you, where are we at?
I believe Russia has hit their culmination point in the Donbas. But unlike a few months ago Ukraine can't exploit it. This leaves Kharkov/Izyum or Kerson as likely last ditch targets for offensive operations on both sides that could possibly achieve a breakthrough.
If Ukraine can retake Kherson then in theory the entire southern Russian donbas position is flanked. Forget Crimea. The Russians held it for months on 1941 against the best German General before his masterful breakthrough. No the course of action would be to strike tower meripotol and meriopol.
Fanciful but not impossible.
More likely than Russia breaking through Kahrkov or the donbass imo. Though all things being equal the Russians win in a static war of attrition.
1
Posted on 7/13/22 at 1:40 am to Jim Rockford
Can they bit HIMARR and Cesar batteries? That may be the issue short term. We've got so few of each to spare. How are the Ukrainians masking these assets?
Shoot and scoot is fine when you've got 100 batteries. We've got like 16? Of both? Just a few hits and it's tough sledding.
I'm not an artillery guy and have no knowledge as to how quickly the Russians can effect rapid counter battery fire. If I were them I'd have bombers with precious precision guided missiles in the air at all times in western Russia and Belarus to pounce on any opportunity.
Shoot and scoot is fine when you've got 100 batteries. We've got like 16? Of both? Just a few hits and it's tough sledding.
I'm not an artillery guy and have no knowledge as to how quickly the Russians can effect rapid counter battery fire. If I were them I'd have bombers with precious precision guided missiles in the air at all times in western Russia and Belarus to pounce on any opportunity.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 2:04 am to Shreveportolewarskul
Lima Whiskey, where is the Russian hammerblow about to strike in your opinion? Do you agree this operational pause is the functional equivalent to a culmination point? Reform and regroup is much different from running out of gas or worse yet of morale.
I've been waiting for Ivan to strike behind Ukrainian forces deep onto the Dniper bridgeheads. They can't. Otherwise it would have been already done.
For those on here who look to tactics and operational strategy, what are your thoughts. Cast aside your political views.
Let's culminate what info we've got as if this were a table game and play it out. Neither side to me looks good at all.
I've been waiting for Ivan to strike behind Ukrainian forces deep onto the Dniper bridgeheads. They can't. Otherwise it would have been already done.
For those on here who look to tactics and operational strategy, what are your thoughts. Cast aside your political views.
Let's culminate what info we've got as if this were a table game and play it out. Neither side to me looks good at all.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 2:13 am to Shreveportolewarskul
quote:
I'm not an artillery guy and have no knowledge as to how quickly the Russians can effect rapid counter battery
IIRC it's something like 20-30min to make it up and back down the chain of command. Vs about ten minutes for Ukraine. This, again from Russian milbloggers, so unverified, but they have no reason to make it worse than it is. By comparison, it was up to an hour for the US in AFG because of the required ROE vetting.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 2:19 am to Jim Rockford
Thanks for your response.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 2:25 am to Jim Rockford
Why can Ukraine do it in half the time? I gather it's American intelligence and training. Though the response times for Afghanistan surely are due to the inability of the opposition to respond in kind. I hope.
My much older brother was in the 11th ACR in the mid 80s at the Fulda Gap as a Russian linguist. I was 5 or 6 and reading Red Storm Rising. Hardly difficult literature but that among with my father who was a colonel in the army reserves had me trained on these issues at an early age.
My much older brother was in the 11th ACR in the mid 80s at the Fulda Gap as a Russian linguist. I was 5 or 6 and reading Red Storm Rising. Hardly difficult literature but that among with my father who was a colonel in the army reserves had me trained on these issues at an early age.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 2:31 am to Shreveportolewarskul
And growing up a few miles from Barksdale, too. Never been more afraid when I was 5 caught in the base during full drill. Sirens screamed and we had to exit our vehicles and hit the ditch. I'd say 50 B-52's took off along with the tankers. Thankfully after half an hour we were able to return to the commissary for our tax free groceries.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 2:33 am to Jim Rockford
Yeah those precious artillery units....10 minutes is an eternity
Posted on 7/13/22 at 2:42 am to Shreveportolewarskul
quote:
Why can Ukraine do it in half the time? I
Short answer, less centralized command structure. Drone operators, counter battery radars, etc. are attached to the batteries they're spotting for.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 2:52 am to Jim Rockford
The Caesar units sent by France initially I took as a token response. But for traditional mechanized artillery they are exceptional units as ive later discovered. And the small numbers being sent, sadly, are a much higher percentage of what we can send with our global commitments.
French artillery since WWI has been a strong point of their forces and I failed to appreciate how excellent their contributions have been.
The French are no surrender monkeys. They won wwwi. Only wehrmwcht precision doomed them later. I just hope they can produce more quickly
French artillery since WWI has been a strong point of their forces and I failed to appreciate how excellent their contributions have been.
The French are no surrender monkeys. They won wwwi. Only wehrmwcht precision doomed them later. I just hope they can produce more quickly
Posted on 7/13/22 at 2:56 am to Jim Rockford
Have you read the recent reports of Iranian drones being sent by the several hundreds to Russia? If only ISRE
Posted on 7/13/22 at 2:59 am to Jim Rockford
How much can Cesar and himarrs do bow?
Posted on 7/13/22 at 4:05 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Well this is an interesting series of events
quote: In order to prevent the liberation of the occupied territories, the Kremlin will try to annex the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as announce a full mobilization in the Russian Federation.
This was stated by the head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration Serhii Haidai in an interview with LB. In his opinion, having annexed the occupied territories, the Kremlin can accuse Ukraine of attacking the Russian Federation.
It may be that Serhii spoke too soon on this but he didn't just imagine this plan, someone discussed it with him.
The other possibility is that the Kremlin is starting to float balloons. Again, not for the West but for the Russian population.
The pressure for the Russians to go to full mobilization is building every day. But the resistance against it in the younger Russian (non-Eastern) population is also building. Trying to fill manpower needs from the Eastern Oblasts will not solve the problem long term.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 6:19 am to cypher
quote:
Revered Ukrainian general on possibility of striking Crimean Bridge
The Kerch Bridge is a very difficult target. There are four problems with attacking it. First, it is very heavily defended, in particular by anti-aircraft / anti-missile systems. Secondly, it is currently far out of range for Ukrainian weapons except for aircraft and that would be too problematic with the defensive systems in place. Thirdly, any weapon used against these bridges must be very accurate in order to strike the bridges themselves. Finally, as it is actually two parallel concrete-based bridges, one road, one rail, it will take a very large amount of explosives to take out both spans to a degree that they can’t be repaired in a short time.
Logically, the Ukrainian’s best option are missiles. That means these missiles must defeat the anti-missile systems and be accurate enough to hit both spans from 325-350kms. Right now, the Ukrainians don’t have anything with that range and accuracy. But the HIMARS 610mm Army Tactical Missiles have a range of 300km and are very accurate. And it seems none of the Russian anti-missile systems are effective against even short range HIMARS. So if three or four of these missiles were given to the Ukrainians with their assurances that they would all be used only on the bridge, it would put the bridge into play as soon as the Ukrainians pushed their lines within the 300km range.
That leaves the explosive issue. These 610mm Army Tactical Missiles carry 500lb warheads, which are not enough to destroy both spans long term. You would need much more explosives to do that. Looking at the destroyed ammunition dumps recently, these were not destroyed by one or two HIMARS hits, but by the resulting ammo explosion. So you would need like, uh… wait. Don’t the Russians use this bridge for ammunition trains…? Mmmmm.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 6:55 am to Shreveportolewarskul
the French Cesars have been hammering supply lines to Izyum for at over a month. Severodonetsk was a true meat grinder for Russia equipment and men. Lots of artillery, tanks and BMPs were lost, along with the men. Holding Severodonetsk allowed artillery to shell Russian reinforcements from the overlooking high ground of around 500 feet higher elevation.
Ukrainian forces have been performing a fighting retreat from high ground to high ground in the east overall. This is also why Russia has been able to advance further from Izyum for well over a month. It occupies low ground only from that axis, plus the loss of supplies.
There is a ridge with the highway running north and south from Siversk in the north which is a natural defensive position. Ukraine has had almost a decade to prepare fall back positions from the east at several ridges.
Russia big gains in the east seem to have come after the Popansa breakthrough which is on a ridge. This is why the supply routes were threatened and flow slowed to a drip of support for Severodontesk when it was held.
As to air combat, Russia has proven that its technology is far behind in aviation. Looking all cool and flying fast is one thing but avionics another. It was never able to establish air superiority.
We should remember that Ukraine has pretty much been the source of much technology and industrial output for almost 40 years post WWII when part of Russia. The loss of this since the early 90's has had an impact on Russia. Remember that software development has been one of Ukraine's leading exports since the 90's.
Loss of use of software for apps et al is having a severe impact on the average Russian these days. Even the Russian bank apps are inoperable for mobile devices. Security for accounts has also been impacted and much easier to steal passwords now.
Ukrainian forces have been performing a fighting retreat from high ground to high ground in the east overall. This is also why Russia has been able to advance further from Izyum for well over a month. It occupies low ground only from that axis, plus the loss of supplies.
There is a ridge with the highway running north and south from Siversk in the north which is a natural defensive position. Ukraine has had almost a decade to prepare fall back positions from the east at several ridges.
Russia big gains in the east seem to have come after the Popansa breakthrough which is on a ridge. This is why the supply routes were threatened and flow slowed to a drip of support for Severodontesk when it was held.
As to air combat, Russia has proven that its technology is far behind in aviation. Looking all cool and flying fast is one thing but avionics another. It was never able to establish air superiority.
We should remember that Ukraine has pretty much been the source of much technology and industrial output for almost 40 years post WWII when part of Russia. The loss of this since the early 90's has had an impact on Russia. Remember that software development has been one of Ukraine's leading exports since the 90's.
Loss of use of software for apps et al is having a severe impact on the average Russian these days. Even the Russian bank apps are inoperable for mobile devices. Security for accounts has also been impacted and much easier to steal passwords now.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:17 am to RLDSC FAN
|British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 July 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In the Donbas, Russian forces will likely focus on taking several small towns during the coming week, including Siversk and Dolyna on the approaches to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. The urban areas of Slovansk and Kramatorsk likely remain the principal objectives for this phase of the operation.
Russia continues to seek to undermine the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state and consolidate its own governance and administrative control over occupied parts of Ukraine. Recently this has included an initiative to twin Russian and Ukrainian cities and regions to develop post-conflict administrations and a decree to make it easier for Ukrainians to obtain Russian citizenship.
Anti-Russian sentiment in occupied Ukraine is leading to Russian and pro-Russian officials being targeted. The Russian-appointed administration in Velykyy Burluk acknowledged that one of its mayors was killed on 11 July 2022 by a car bombing. The targeting of officials is likely to escalate, exacerbating the already significant challenges facing the Russian occupiers and potentially increasing the pressure on already reduced military and security formations.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 July 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In the Donbas, Russian forces will likely focus on taking several small towns during the coming week, including Siversk and Dolyna on the approaches to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. The urban areas of Slovansk and Kramatorsk likely remain the principal objectives for this phase of the operation.
Russia continues to seek to undermine the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state and consolidate its own governance and administrative control over occupied parts of Ukraine. Recently this has included an initiative to twin Russian and Ukrainian cities and regions to develop post-conflict administrations and a decree to make it easier for Ukrainians to obtain Russian citizenship.
Anti-Russian sentiment in occupied Ukraine is leading to Russian and pro-Russian officials being targeted. The Russian-appointed administration in Velykyy Burluk acknowledged that one of its mayors was killed on 11 July 2022 by a car bombing. The targeting of officials is likely to escalate, exacerbating the already significant challenges facing the Russian occupiers and potentially increasing the pressure on already reduced military and security formations.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:20 am to cypher
Iran says it refused to supply drones to Russia
13 July, 03:12 PM
Iran has no plans to send military aid neither to Russia nor to Ukraine, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said.
Iran avoids any actions that could lead to further escalation in Ukraine, including the supply of military equipment, Amir-Abdollahian said.
“We have defense agreements with Russia, but we will not help any of the parties involved in this conflict,” he added.
The New Voice of Ukraine
13 July, 03:12 PM
Iran has no plans to send military aid neither to Russia nor to Ukraine, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said.
Iran avoids any actions that could lead to further escalation in Ukraine, including the supply of military equipment, Amir-Abdollahian said.
“We have defense agreements with Russia, but we will not help any of the parties involved in this conflict,” he added.
The New Voice of Ukraine
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:34 am to cypher
A series of explosions broke out in Luhansk this night, the invaders claim an attack on their air defense detachment
13 July, 2022
According to locals, explosions were actively heard for about two hours. Eyewitnesses shared that sounds similar to ammunition detonation were heard in the city’s Industrial District.
Amid reports of explosions in Russia-occupied Luhansk, the so-called “LPR” authorities stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck the military air defense detachment.
According to the propaganda media, this military detachment of the Russian occupation forces was protecting the sky over Luhansk.
Ukrainian Military Portal
13 July, 2022
According to locals, explosions were actively heard for about two hours. Eyewitnesses shared that sounds similar to ammunition detonation were heard in the city’s Industrial District.
Amid reports of explosions in Russia-occupied Luhansk, the so-called “LPR” authorities stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck the military air defense detachment.
According to the propaganda media, this military detachment of the Russian occupation forces was protecting the sky over Luhansk.
Ukrainian Military Portal
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:35 am to cypher
quote:
”We have defense agreements with Russia, but we will not help any of the parties involved in this conflict,”
I wonder if this is the result of recent outreach diplomacy by Washington in the Middle East. Perhaps Iran is seeing that Russia is not the fastest or strongest horse in the race.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:44 am to TBoy
quote:
Perhaps Iran is seeing that Russia is not the fastest or strongest horse in the race.
Hope it's true, but only time will tell.
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