re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

TBH the initiative seems to have shifted since HIMARS became operational.part of that is Russia's offensive running out of gas or reaching it's planned endpoint, however you want to look at it. But the Russians do seem to be panicking s bit at their sudden vulnerability. If Ukraine did indeed wipe out the command elements of two Russian divisions on the Kherson front maybe they've really got something going on there.

Ukrainians, trained, which may include those fighting in the East and Kharkiv areas. They never had weapons before. Foreign fighters are bringing some of their personal gear then there were a lot of captured weapons from Russians at the northern thrust to Kyiv

Not sure when Zelenskyy thinks that he will have 1 million, but who knows how much of that message is meant for Putin or the West.

Where did you hear they wiped out the Kherson front command structure?

I'm not suggesting you are wrong at all. You have more info than me.

Right now ISW which I receive as the Ukraine propaganda is suggesting incremental gains at best. Though I've read about Russian telegram and other social media outlets expressing concern about the stability of the Kershon front?

Guys the possibilities if a Kherson breakthrough are enormous. Russia would have to split whatever its reserves are to protect the Crimean neck or the soft underbelly of the donbas front. It would he calamitous

I agree with your assessment. This next month will tell all.

As I mentioned before though I think the Russian AF has been tentative and any major Ukarainian offensive will require a full RAF response. I think if the Russians used up their AF they could get their Bear (b-52) equivalents in to follow a swift strike from their electronics jamming and anti Sam fighters. They'd lose a lot more than they are willing at this point. But they have the capability of sacrificing fighters for bombers and could decimate any major Ukrainian attacking force

Russia has to consider how many of these strategic assets they want to use up. With sanctions and the general disarray of the Russian aerospace industry, they won't be replaced in the foreseeable future. A bomber lost over Ukraine is a bomber unavailable for a confrontation with the US, China, Poland, the list goes on. Russia has a lot of potential enemies and a knack for reminding the world it can't be trusted.

To me their only other use for their strategic bomber fleet is against the US. Between the Bear, Blackjack and Backfire they've got roughly the same numbers as B-52s, B-2s and B-1s.

But if swarmed ahead of time by hundreds of fighters as cannon fodder they could carpet bomb a Ukrainian position

China is their mortal threat and will he before they remember it but if the state of Putin's regime is threatened by a Ukrainian offensive I have little doubt that scores of fighters and fighter bombers could overwhelm their limited SAM resources to allow the bombers through. Of course this is a scenario where the Russians are desperate enough to do this. They've been content to fire away 60s era missiles so far and feel that's sufficient.

And it has been. If Ukraine can't retake Kherson and the meat grinder continues unabated then all is lost

Yeah we nearly ran out of precision guidance missiles and bombs during Desert Storm.

Hearing reliable sources say they are using "Kitchen" anti carrier missiles against military targets. 60s era missiles.

No what meant was if Ukraine had some massive stroke force (which they dont) of hundreds of thousands, they'd just carpet bomb them like we have done before.

I agree. They've shown no confident assertiveness through the air. All I'm saying is that if there was some massed Ukrainian strike force (which I doubt exists) their satellites would pick it up and they could swarm Ukraininan SAMs with drones and worthless 3rd generation fkghters and follow through immediately with what's left of their precision munitions or use the bombers to carpet bomb. They'd lose probably more than Putin dares to gamble.

But Ukraine posseses no massive mobile ground army besides. I'm just hoping for one breakthrough, perhaps at Kherson. That would force all Russian reserves away from the Donbass. It would seal the stalemate and Ukraine's sovereignty.