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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/12/22 at 10:16 pm to Centinel
Posted on 7/12/22 at 10:16 pm to Centinel
Yeah I got roped into the Taiwan discussion this weekend and also brought up the Second World War epic battles of maneuver in Ukraine. Pointless discussion.
To those who care to engage, during this relatively quiet period, what is your guess on what happens next?
No, geopolitics can't be stricken completely from the discussion, but there is an active war. Who throws the next punch? Where and when?
To those who care to engage, during this relatively quiet period, what is your guess on what happens next?
No, geopolitics can't be stricken completely from the discussion, but there is an active war. Who throws the next punch? Where and when?
1
Posted on 7/12/22 at 10:21 pm to Shreveportolewarskul
It's up to 650,000
Posted on 7/12/22 at 10:21 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Well unfortunately for you, you don’t get to just make up your own definitions.
Google is your friend. It's basically a verbatim definition.
quote:
The Kurds in Iraq 1, Somalia, Iraq 2, Afghanistan, Yemen famine, Syria. Why do you think this will be any different? Because Ukraine is white?
Seriously? The race card? lulz
Posted on 7/12/22 at 10:26 pm to CitizenK
650,000 what? 650k is the number the Wehrmacht surrounded in Kiev in 1941. That took something like 2/3 of their mobile units to achieve such an encirclement. They were at the height of their power.
Or 650k in the Ukrainian strike force? That's equally unbelievable to me. It exceeds more troops both sides have thought to have at the front combined and then some.
I may be missing your point
Or 650k in the Ukrainian strike force? That's equally unbelievable to me. It exceeds more troops both sides have thought to have at the front combined and then some.
I may be missing your point
Posted on 7/12/22 at 10:26 pm to Shreveportolewarskul
It's been happening for a few weeks. Ukraine looks to have made a break in the line near Kherson. Likely at the airport by Friday. A large force of Russia will then be trapped
Posted on 7/12/22 at 10:37 pm to CitizenK
Ok I had to use Google Maps. So the airport is on the western outskirts. That fits the reports I've read of the Ukrainians getting close. It is eery in a way to see that Kherson is entirely situated on the west bank of the Dniepr. Like Stalingrad it's all concentrated on the left side.
I suppose you are suggesting the last bridge could be destroyed and the Russians left inside the city?
Id be shocked if the Russians had 50k on that front. But if the pressure is as great as you are hearing they will soon retreat and blow the bridge. Other accounts I've read are that Ukrainikan bridgeheads further up the Dnieper are tenuous at best. But just liberating Kherson from Russian control would be a triumph to outweigh the Russians grinding 500m a day in the Donbas
I suppose you are suggesting the last bridge could be destroyed and the Russians left inside the city?
Id be shocked if the Russians had 50k on that front. But if the pressure is as great as you are hearing they will soon retreat and blow the bridge. Other accounts I've read are that Ukrainikan bridgeheads further up the Dnieper are tenuous at best. But just liberating Kherson from Russian control would be a triumph to outweigh the Russians grinding 500m a day in the Donbas
Posted on 7/12/22 at 10:45 pm to CitizenK
I still confused as to what you mean by 650,000. But if the Russians saw (and their satellites alone would pick it up), a mass force of any size I think they'd unleash the hounds. They'd send in their tacticalair force to create total chaos, a few dozen jets shot down who cares, and then unleash their fleet of Bear and Blackjack bombers to saturate bomb if need be. The gloves would be off. It would be like sending the B 52s right after we softened up anti air capabilities by throwing in every A-10, F-16 we had. Ukraine I cannot believe can stop a major Russian air assault. It would be carnage.
Posted on 7/12/22 at 10:55 pm to CitizenK
But not 650k. And as you say if there is a bridgehead left the Russians will escape largely. They won't do more than a delaying action in the city if what you suggest is accurate. They'll be over the bridge yesterday.
Indeed, if the HIMARR efficacy is as effective as claimed, that bridge would have been gone by now.
There aren't 650k in the Russian army unless you count all theoretical reserves and for heavens sure they aren't about to be trapped in Kherson.
Indeed, if the HIMARR efficacy is as effective as claimed, that bridge would have been gone by now.
There aren't 650k in the Russian army unless you count all theoretical reserves and for heavens sure they aren't about to be trapped in Kherson.
Posted on 7/12/22 at 10:59 pm to Shreveportolewarskul
He’s claiming that Ukraine has been training a large army while the current force holds the line on the front and that they’ll soon have 650 trained and equipped troops to throw at the Russian invasion.
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:02 pm to CitizenK
Russia currently has an estimated 180 BTG’s in Ukraine. Many of these have been chewed up. They can be broken down to reform some, reinforced by reservists or further contract hires. They can also ‘hire locals’ to fill out overseas commitment and leave only a core staff of officers in charge. It worked for us for years in Afghanistan. Solving the immediate manpower issue is doable, but sustaining it is entirely different.
What is not doable, is maintaining that force if current casualty rates continue. Russia’s current system simply cannot keep replacing losses at this rate of KIA’s.
So far, this is a ‘Special Military Operation’. It’s not a ‘war’. If Russia admits it’s a war and changes it’s system to a war footing, that opens up things like conscription. Quantity has a quality all its own, and Russia has plenty of poor young men to throw into the Donbas meat grinder. If Russia goes this route, it will be a long, bloody war that likely won’t end until either Ukraine or Russia cracks entirely. Russia’s entire history is based on succeeding in these attritional brawls by throwing bodies into a ground war. They do not always win, but even losing they do incredible damage.
Whether Russia can find manpower is moot. The question is whether Russia is willing to do what is necessary to get that manpower.
What is not doable, is maintaining that force if current casualty rates continue. Russia’s current system simply cannot keep replacing losses at this rate of KIA’s.
So far, this is a ‘Special Military Operation’. It’s not a ‘war’. If Russia admits it’s a war and changes it’s system to a war footing, that opens up things like conscription. Quantity has a quality all its own, and Russia has plenty of poor young men to throw into the Donbas meat grinder. If Russia goes this route, it will be a long, bloody war that likely won’t end until either Ukraine or Russia cracks entirely. Russia’s entire history is based on succeeding in these attritional brawls by throwing bodies into a ground war. They do not always win, but even losing they do incredible damage.
Whether Russia can find manpower is moot. The question is whether Russia is willing to do what is necessary to get that manpower.
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:08 pm to CitizenK
The new ISW report for the 12th is interesting. But it is, as we all know, pro Ukrainian. Their map still shows the front lines 20 km from the airport which is on the western outskirts of Kherson.
In this war as it has become that might as well be 100 miles. Now of course any front line Russians faced with even a 10 to 20k organized mechanized columns assisted by Western artillery are likely to abandon post.
I just still find it hard to believe that Ukraine currently possess mobile mechanized reserves that can trap Russian forces in Kherson.
If Kherson falls, it will he over weeks
In this war as it has become that might as well be 100 miles. Now of course any front line Russians faced with even a 10 to 20k organized mechanized columns assisted by Western artillery are likely to abandon post.
I just still find it hard to believe that Ukraine currently possess mobile mechanized reserves that can trap Russian forces in Kherson.
If Kherson falls, it will he over weeks
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:14 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
From the best estimates I've read are that half that at best hold the entire front from Kharkov to Kherson. More likely 200k at the front.
To have an operational reserve of 650k ready to stroke is preposterous. I would love it but that's silly and if they did the Russians as I suggested before would throw everything at it. It would be a turkey shoot. Send fighters to attract the Sams and then have the heavy bombers follow through coming from the south from the black sea. A fleet of 25 Bears, even if a few were shot down, could make it as rough for Ukraine as our Barksdale bombers did in 1991 in Iraq
To have an operational reserve of 650k ready to stroke is preposterous. I would love it but that's silly and if they did the Russians as I suggested before would throw everything at it. It would be a turkey shoot. Send fighters to attract the Sams and then have the heavy bombers follow through coming from the south from the black sea. A fleet of 25 Bears, even if a few were shot down, could make it as rough for Ukraine as our Barksdale bombers did in 1991 in Iraq
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:20 pm to Breauxsif
180 btgs at this point means 90k men, right? Weren't they originally 1000 man regiments? If anything from the Western side is to be believed they are at best half strength now.
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:25 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
If they've held back 650k soldiers for reserve call up and training and even if 1/10th of them are mechanized then we'll know within a week. I wish it were so but I think it's bs.
If they had 3 mechanized corps worth, perhaps 100k, ready to move in to exploit a breakthrough I would be stunned. Though delighted.
If they had 3 mechanized corps worth, perhaps 100k, ready to move in to exploit a breakthrough I would be stunned. Though delighted.
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:37 pm to Breauxsif
Just to regain Kherson and hold the Russians back from a breakthrough across Dnipro would be about as much could be hoped for before winter sets in.
I don't disagree with your assessment. Russian reserves have been reached. Otherwise why this pause with all the momentum?
But conversely from my best assessment Ukraine may have one last major offensive left, if one at all. They can't lose Kharkov. Nor will they. As long as they can stop a massive breakout into Dnipro they are ok there. Any offensive into the meat of the Donbas would be nonsensical. The moves must be made in the south as telegraphed by zelensky and the press. The Kharkov breakout option means hitting Russian soil and all bet are off at that point. Earlier in April I think they could have take Belgerod inside of Russia but that means conscription and worse.
It has to be the retaking of Kherson. O don't think it's a feint. It's Ukraines best chance of a decent settlement.
Retake Kherson and threaten Crimea.
I don't disagree with your assessment. Russian reserves have been reached. Otherwise why this pause with all the momentum?
But conversely from my best assessment Ukraine may have one last major offensive left, if one at all. They can't lose Kharkov. Nor will they. As long as they can stop a massive breakout into Dnipro they are ok there. Any offensive into the meat of the Donbas would be nonsensical. The moves must be made in the south as telegraphed by zelensky and the press. The Kharkov breakout option means hitting Russian soil and all bet are off at that point. Earlier in April I think they could have take Belgerod inside of Russia but that means conscription and worse.
It has to be the retaking of Kherson. O don't think it's a feint. It's Ukraines best chance of a decent settlement.
Retake Kherson and threaten Crimea.
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:49 pm to Breauxsif
If Ukraine remakes Kherson, a huge 50/50 if at best, then the wiser strategy would be to avoid the narrow neck into Crimea which I'd assume would be heavily defended. It's like Thermopolye almost. The Germans in 41 had a devil of a time breaking through with their best General in charge and complete air supremacy. I would think the strategy would be be to isolate Crimea and threaten the southern donbas
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:56 pm to Breauxsif
quote:
Whether Russia can find manpower is moot. The question is whether Russia is willing to do what is necessary to get that manpower.
Putin had ample opportunity declare a general mobilization after the failed Kyiv gambit. Apparently he thinks it politically unwise or perhaps even dangerous to do so. He's an authoritarian but he doesn't have total control. There are constituencies to whom he answers, and there are things he can and cannot do.
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:57 pm to Shreveportolewarskul
Taking the bridge would mean lots of russians trapped much further north of Kherson. the bridge across the dam is no longer passable after HIMARS doing their thing
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:58 pm to Shreveportolewarskul
If Ukraine can't, for whatever reason, retake Keherson then it's probably a WWI war of attrition. I don't think Europe will stay together over that.
The air temp hit 106 in Shreveport Sunday. The past decade since 2012 has been relatively cool. 2011 was a beast. But up to now we've been fine. 95 and we're fine. Imagine Europe confronting the equivalent winter without heat. Or even their average winter. Or for that matter a warm winter.
Ukraine must hit a sector soon and gain significant ground and hold it and then we need talks to begin. Kherson and a strike to either Crimea or the Donbas underbelly would mean all the difference.
If the next few months of campaign season we continue to see incremental Russian advances and nothing from Ukraine we are in trouble
The air temp hit 106 in Shreveport Sunday. The past decade since 2012 has been relatively cool. 2011 was a beast. But up to now we've been fine. 95 and we're fine. Imagine Europe confronting the equivalent winter without heat. Or even their average winter. Or for that matter a warm winter.
Ukraine must hit a sector soon and gain significant ground and hold it and then we need talks to begin. Kherson and a strike to either Crimea or the Donbas underbelly would mean all the difference.
If the next few months of campaign season we continue to see incremental Russian advances and nothing from Ukraine we are in trouble
Posted on 7/12/22 at 11:59 pm to Shreveportolewarskul
If I had to guess both sides probably have no more than 130,000 troops on either side for the entire theater of operations. Russia has no question lost at least 1/3 of their BTG with soldiers remaining being thrown into hodgepodge units of who is left. Same with the Ukrainians and their territorial defense forces. Ukraine is trying to exploit their one advantage with its influx of long range precision weaponry by cutting Russia’s supply routes with their front line artillery units. Russia is the invader and is the one that is burdened with having to maintain lengthy routes of supply, especially with them using 20,000 howitzer shells a day. That takes a lot of man power to keep those guns supplied and Russia does this by hand from railways ammunition depots. We will see Russia’s true resolve to fight this out very soon or if they will try to call victory with the gain they have taken so far and pull back. Both sides are exhausted. The next month will most likely tell us how the rest of this conflict is going to go. I honestly have no idea what the outcome will be because the Russian military has been a colossal disaster in this conflict. If this were our military our #1 objective before all else would have been to wipe the opposing Air Force off the map and 5 months in Russia still hasn’t managed to achieve this because Ukrainian jets and helos are still flying even being outnumbered more than 10:1. It baffles me how this has happened.
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