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Message
Lack of testing for the virus
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:05 pm
I think one thing we can agree on is that there are thousands of people in the United States who have the virus but haven’t been confirmed because they haven’t been tested. Wouldn’t the lack of testing cause the mortality rate to be higher than what it actually is? I believe the number of people infected is much higher than the number we have now. The amount of deaths really can’t be changed because you can’t hide people from dying. Not with all the social media we have today. So I guess my point is the amount infected from the virus is so much higher than we already know and the amount of people that have died from the virus is likely the amount we currently know. Resulting in a mortality rate that is much lower. Since the virus is so contagious a mortality rate of just .5% can be bad. I think we are taking the right measures currently to slow down the spread. The weakest part of this virus is it’s lethality and if we can stop the spread this virus can be taken down.
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 2:08 pm
7
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:08 pm to DhanTigers212
quote:
there are thousands of people in the United States who have the virus but haven’t been confirmed because they haven’t been tested. Wouldn’t the lack of testing cause the mortality rate to be higher than what it actually is
You don’t know how math works, do you? If death rate is close to 1% among the ones we know about, it’s gonna be 1% of those additional ones we find out about after testing them. Chances are they’re still dying now but of “pnemonia”, not corona.
In other words, the vast majority of deaths due to corona are not going to magically be found among just those we know about.
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:08 pm to DhanTigers212
The answer to your question is: we don’t know; primarily because our government has failed to ramp up testing that most other smart countries have done.
Because we don’t know the true mortality rates, best to play it safe until we ramp up testing.
Because we don’t know the true mortality rates, best to play it safe until we ramp up testing.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:11 pm to DhanTigers212
I think the goal at this point is to slow it down enough to allow hospitals to treat all of their respiratory cases. It's gonna run its course.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:13 pm to TDsngumbo
You really don’t understand what I’m trying to say? If thousands of people have the virus RIGHT NOW that haven’t been tested (this can include people who may actually feel sick or this could include people who really aren’t showing any symptoms) than the mortality rate would be lower. Lack of testing hides the amount of people who actually have the virus causing a higher mortality rate.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:14 pm to GoHoGsGo06
quote:
The answer to your question is: we don’t know; primarily because our government has failed to ramp up testing that most other smart countries have done.
Because we don’t know the true mortality rates, best to play it safe until we ramp up testing.
The CDC and FDA would\will not allow testing developed in private labs to be used, then the tests they supplied were poor.
Regulations.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:15 pm to DhanTigers212
quote:
Lack of testing for the virus
You really don’t understand what I’m trying to say? If thousands of people have the virus RIGHT NOW that haven’t been tested (this can include people who may actually feel sick or this could include people who really aren’t showing any symptoms) than the mortality rate would be lower. Lack of testing hides the amount of people who actually have the virus causing a higher mortality rate.
I get your point and agree.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:15 pm to DhanTigers212
I gotcha now.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:17 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
You don’t know how math works, do you? If death rate is close to 1% among the ones we know about, it’s gonna be 1% of those additional ones we find out about after testing them. Chances are they’re still dying now but of “pnemonia”, not corona.
In other words, the vast majority of deaths due to corona are not going to magically be found among just those we know about.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:17 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
If death rate is close to 1% among the ones we know about, it’s gonna be 1% of those additional ones we find out about after testing them. Chances are they’re still dying now but of “pnemonia”, not corona.
Perhaps that is good math somehow but logic would dictate otherwise. The overwhelming number of cases present as not much more than the common cold. One would think that EVERY patient admitted with viral pneumonia is going to be screened for corona, hence the probable skew that the thread starter suggests.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:19 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Chances are they’re still dying now but of “pnemonia”, not corona.
I would think, given the current state of pandemonium over coronavirus, causes of death aren't simply being written off as pneumonia anymore and any death resembling coronavirus is being tested for coronavirus.
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:19 pm to DhanTigers212
quote:
The amount of deaths really can’t be changed because you can’t hide people from dying.
There some people that were sick and have died before they were tested so we don't know for sure. I doubt it's many if at all, but we can't assume that it is ONLY the confirmed number.
quote:
The weakest part of this virus is it’s lethality and if we can stop the spread this virus can be taken down.
The leading minds on this are thinking it's probably 10 times more lethal than the flu. But you are also contagious before symptoms appear and you can be contagious with ever having symptoms.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:24 pm to DhanTigers212
quote:
If thousands of people have the virus RIGHT NOW that haven’t been tested (this can include people who may actually feel sick or this could include people who really aren’t showing any symptoms) than the mortality rate would be lower. Lack of testing hides the amount of people who actually have the virus causing a higher mortality rate.
You are correct. The experts have already accounted for this and adjusted numbers roughly saying the 1% mortality rate is more accurate than the higher numbers that are 'confirmed'.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:29 pm to ashy larry
quote:
The experts have already accounted for this and adjusted numbers roughly saying the 1% mortality rate is more accurate than the higher numbers that are 'confirmed'.
It’s probably lower than that.
SK has the most extensive testing suggesting that they have probably accounted for the most (not all, maybe not even of a majority) of asymptotic and/or mild cases.
The SK mortality rate is .9% which suggest that this is the outer range.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:34 pm to Antonio Moss
Yep. I think mortality rate is closer to 0.5%.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:38 pm to UpToPar
quote:
Yep. I think mortality rate is closer to 0.5%.
Agreed.
It’s still five times as deadly as the flu. So not good but not the apocalypse
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:44 pm to DhanTigers212
quote:
Since the virus is so contagious a mortality rate of just .5% can be bad
This
Posted on 3/13/20 at 10:52 pm to Number 9 Fan
quote:
Since the virus is so contagious a mortality rate of just .5% can be bad
Not if you're in the 99.5% group... lol
Posted on 3/13/20 at 11:03 pm to DhanTigers212
A Lab in BR already has their reagents/samples/prelim testing done and will be ready for testing early next week. They are going to get the overflow from 3 other labs so things are really ramped up. The person I know there said they can make testing solutions faster than people can perform the tests so I feel pretty confident that there’s not going to be issues with tests real soon
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