re: July Vaccine

Excellent point Dizz.

At this point, this has become far more than a public health emergency. This an all out geo-political war with the western world vs China and the stakes have never been higher. The political and economic clout by whichever side comes up with a vaccine to eradicate this virus is immeasurable. It will be available in super record time, not for health reasons, but economic survival and worldwide dominance. Don’t think for a second that OMB doesn’t realize this locks up Nov. and cements his legacy not only in the US, but globally as well.

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How long do these things generally take to develop

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Six or seven years would be quick.

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At this point, this has become far more than a public health emergency. This an all out geo-political war with the western world vs China and the stakes have never been higher. The political and economic clout by whichever side comes up with a vaccine to eradicate this virus is immeasurable

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People don't realize that this is the race for dominance in the 21st century. On one side the leaders are Moderna and oxford, on the other side the Chinese. All three are currently being tested on hundreds of people and will be tested on thousands in a month. The Chinese and Oxford vaccines will undergo challenge testing.

In the developing world a lot of people believe the Chinese propaganda that we started the outbreak. They also use their "low" cases and deaths to say their system is superior. If they are able to develop and produce a vaccine first, they will use it to require countries that get it to submit to their sphere of influence.

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In the developing world a lot of people believe the Chinese propaganda that we started the outbreak. They also use their "low" cases and deaths to say their system is superior. If they are able to develop and produce a vaccine first, they will use it to require countries that get it to submit to their sphere of influence.

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China has 2 advantages:
- they created the virus in a lab
- they will test their vaccine on a lot more people than the west

Wouldn’t shock me at all if they win the race.

You were downvoted, but you are correct.

This paper from 2005, show that there were serious problems with the SARS vaccine, two years later. Problems with liver damage in animal models, problems with incomplete inactivation causing SARS infection, and production of antibodies that enhanced SARS effectiveness.

You can find studies with similar issues up to 2009, six years after the 2003 outbreak. They ended up giving up a few years back.

I'm not antivax, BTW. Cancer immunotherapy is the world I work in. Just pointing out that vaccines are incredibly complicated things that need to be well tested.

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This paper from 2005, show that there were serious problems with the SARS vaccine, two years later. Problems with liver damage in animal models, problems with incomplete inactivation causing SARS infection, and production of antibodies that enhanced SARS effectiveness.

You can find studies with similar issues up to 2009, six years after the 2003 outbreak. They ended up giving up a few years back.

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Moderna and Oxford were the ones working on the SARs vaccine. Work slowed because funding declined. Covid is very similar to SARS. These vaccines have 15 years of research behind them including the trial and error from the previous vaccines. That is why Fauci is so confident. He said last week that he was confident that there would be 330 million doses by January. That means that large scale production and distribution has to begin by the early fall and confidence in a vaccine by the end of July.

In 1957, we developed and produced a vaccine for an novel influenza that killed 110,000 Americans in 8 months. Your phone has more computing power than all the computers in the world in 1957.

Combine all this with the geopolitical consequences of China beating us and the UK to a vaccine and we see the 12-18 month typical timeline become 6-9 months. They had the virus sequence at the end of January.

All three groups and countries will announce confidence in their vaccines by the end of July. Then the production and distribution game will start.

21st century alliances will be based on who gets the US, UK, and Chinese Vaccines and who gets left out. We are already in WW3, just most don't know it and it is not the war we imagined.

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I'm not an antivaxxer, but I'm not going to take a vaccine that was rushed to market in 6 months.

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Swine flu vaccine came out in about 6 months

Technology has advanced in 10 years