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Started By
Message
re: IHMA HealthData Projections Plummet for Louisiana COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
Posted on 4/6/20 at 12:52 pm to SloaneRanger
Posted on 4/6/20 at 12:52 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
SloaneRanger
Remember when you said that US deaths wouldn't hit 10k by year end 2020?
1
Posted on 4/6/20 at 12:54 pm to Pettifogger
Because compared to other states, the range was quite extreme. The range was sitting at 950-9500 deaths. None of the other 49 states had a range anywhere near that wide. It also didn’t make any sense. Other states like Missouri and South Carolina had also not implanted a stay at home order and had similar cases/deaths to Alabama.
It makes no sense how the number went from 2K to 9500 to 5500 and now down to 950 in a week. That’s just a GIANT increase and then drop that not a single other state came close to seeing.
It makes no sense how the number went from 2K to 9500 to 5500 and now down to 950 in a week. That’s just a GIANT increase and then drop that not a single other state came close to seeing.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 1:01 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
That upper range for Alabama was created before any data had come from Alabama and was based almost entirely on the model of expected outcomes based on Wuhan numbers if preventive measures in Alabama were completely ineffective.
You clearly have not been following Alabama. Before last Tuesday the expected death toll for Alabama was 2-3K. By Tuesday it had jumped up to 9500 and that was the moderate estimate.
You can’t use the “preventive measures” as an excuse. Mississippi as of last Monday had also not implemented a stay at home order. When it was added, their numbers went from 1000 to 900. Georgia’s stay at home order was added the same time as Alabama’s and they went from 3300 to 3500 when it added. So the stay at home order doesn’t have as much an impact as you’re acting like it does.
Also the inclusive data doesn’t make a lot of sense either. By March 13th, Alabama had a similar number of cases and deaths as Missouri and South Carolina. Neither of which have implemented a stay at home order btw. Yet Alabama was projected to have several thousands of more deaths and a much, much wider range than either.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 1:44 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Yeah bud I was wrong. Sorry. It happens. All I am saying is that a model that has 1 in 500 Alabama residents being dead within a month should have been a huge red flag to any scientist or model creator. That range was so at odds with what was actually going on in Alabama that it calls in to question everything they are doing at UW.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 1:46 pm to SloaneRanger
Posted on 4/6/20 at 10:08 pm to 1BamaRTR
All the genetic similarity throws off the Alabama models
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:00 am to TigersSEC2010
I need two more stimulus checks!!!
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