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Started By
Message
re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:42 am to Cymry Teigr
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:42 am to Cymry Teigr
quote:
He had a note (tweet?) the other day that his website is experiencing extremely high traffic. I’d assume some other website or fb page is embedding something directly from tropical tidbits. He’d mentioned he was looking at upgrading his server and was looking for donations.
Nah, it's always been like that with TT. Love the site, but trying to get gifs from there is mind-numbing.
1
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:46 am to rds dc
What
The
frick
The
frick
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:46 am to RummelTiger
So again Euro has been one of the more eastern on the tracks so I wonder where it will go. This far out just could split the difference between the models and slap it right between.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:46 am to Fun Bunch
Oh frick oh frick oh frick stay east
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:48 am to tarzana
quote:Shut up dumbass.
tarzana
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:50 am to LanierSpots
quote:Palmetto.
east Bradenton
Going to see how things look over the next two days before we decide if we are staying.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:50 am to maisweh
All these high fives yesterday are now puckered buttholes!!
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:51 am to tarzana
quote:I’m sure all those carbon emissions wreaked havoc on the hurricane in Galveston in 1900
For me it's all about the climate, not the weather, and how carbon emissions influence the paths and intensity of these storms.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:51 am to rds dc
each westward shift got me:
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:52 am to joshnorris14
quote:
Starting to see some Cat 5 type energy
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:52 am to GreenRockTiger
Not liking how this thing keeps easing on west
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:52 am to shallowminded
They both dig deep into Bama and then make the NE turn. Bright side to these models is they get sheared heavily on track towards landfall and a weakening storm at landfall.
Within like 24 hours the GFS goes from 950mb to 985mb at landfall.
This post was edited on 9/24/22 at 11:54 am
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:53 am to rds dc
Recon still heading south looking for the LLC
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:54 am to BananaManCan
Models simply aren’t able to correctly determine the strength and location of a trough more than a week out. These major shifts compared to past runs farther out aren’t surprising. We’re also trending a little weaker than expected still. They give you an idea of where it will go. But not more than “the eastern half of the Gulf” which is a pretty long stretch of shore.
This post was edited on 9/24/22 at 12:00 pm
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:54 am to Wolfhound45
quote:
Palmetto.
Going to see how things look over the next two days before we decide if we are staying.
UGH. wife works at Sarasota Memorial Venice. She will be on lock down there. So I have to make a decision for my 21 year old son and myself. Watching closely. I am just down the road from you
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:54 am to rds dc
Did the mid level circulation pull the low level circulation farther south like Levi was mentioning yesterday?
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:56 am to The Boat
quote:
Models simply aren’t able to correctly determine the strength and location of a trough more than a week out.
Are their programs or systems where mets can simulate in where a ridge will be? Assuming they have a better idea of where the ridge will actually be.
Or is that along the lines of wish casting a ridge instead of just trusting the models?
For comparison, we can override some parts of an economic model based off some past learning that may not have been accounted for in these models.
This post was edited on 9/24/22 at 11:58 am
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:57 am to fightin tigers
quote:
Are their programs or systems where mets can simulate in where a ridge will be? Assuming they have a better idea of where the ridge will actually be.
That’s what the ensembles are doing. Why you see such a huge spread
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:58 am to LanierSpots
quote:Best wishes to you and yours baw. Stay safe. The dog and I rode it out in 2017 with Irma (wife evacuated to Baton Rouge to be with my family). My neighbor and I are teaming up to put on the hurricane shutters tomorrow. Will decide from there.
LanierSpots
Side note, we go to church in Bradenton. Really love this area.
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