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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:26 am to mightynine
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:26 am to mightynine
quote:
If's anyone's interested, here's live coverage of Fiona's impact to Canada from their TWC, The Weather Network:
There's some good chaser coverage, too. Josh Morgerman and Aaron Jayjack are both on it.
1
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:28 am to rocket31
quote:
dudes obviously trolling and had about 7 idiots qoute him this place never fails to amuse
Read his post history.
You might be the idiot for thinking he’s just trolling.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:29 am to tarzana
You don't get to make those claims without scientific proof which I'm sure you don't have.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:30 am to maisweh
quote:
So past Cuba, this still a Florida storm?
I don't think the extreme western landfall that the GFS was showing two days ago was very realistic. The Euro never even attempted to cave to that scenario. It'll make that turn towards the west coast of Florida at some point. I think Tampa is the reasonable center point to work from, not at all calling landfall for there, though.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:32 am to kywildcatfanone
quote:
kywildcatfanone
You keep those puppies safe.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:37 am to Hangit
quote:
You keep those puppies safe
They are not coming with me. I have thought many times about canceling and not going. Still might, or the storm might cancel for me. I am not looking forward to leaving them, but could use the break.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:37 am to LegendInMyMind
so we still think the GFS is the outlier? It has it going into the panhandle
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:40 am to slackster
quote:
I have hell creating/posting gifs from Tropical Tidbits on mobile
Same, and I cannot figure out what the issue is.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:45 am to rds dc
Very late but in. Preparing for it to arrive some time next week. Putting up the hurricane shutters tomorrow.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:47 am to catholictigerfan
NHC hints at possible West shifts in track, but not enough to put a scare into SELA.
From the 5AM forecast discussion
NHC
quote:
The overall guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the NHC track has been nudged in that direction and lies just east of the various consensus aids. Given the spread in the guidance, and the still shifting dynamical models, additional adjustments to the track forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories. Users are reminded that the long-term average NHC 4- and 5-day track errors are around 150 and 200 n mi, respectively.
From the 5AM forecast discussion
NHC
This post was edited on 9/24/22 at 9:48 am
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:49 am to RummelTiger
Which weather person does TWC hate, and wants to see them get kilt, live on air? If the track stays the same, whoever they send to Bradenton has the target on their back. 
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:49 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I don't think the extreme western landfall that the GFS was showing two days ago was very realistic.
The 00z Canadian ensemble is all in
On a serious note, that was a huge west shift for that model.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:55 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
There's some good chaser coverage, too. Josh Morgerman and Aaron Jayjack are both on it.
Imagine hurricane chasing and having to drive from Nova Scotia to Tallahassee.
This post was edited on 9/24/22 at 9:59 am
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:58 am to rds dc
That black one (240) heads towards LA then does a nope towards Mexico.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:58 am to rds dc
quote:
On a serious note, that was a huge west shift for that model
Shows a pretty weak storm in all of the ensembles and operational - imagine that explains the less prominent N/NE shift in the GOM.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:00 am to BRIllini07
quote:
nudged
A word they love.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:00 am to BRIllini07
quote:
NHC hints at possible West shifts in track, but not enough to put a scare into SELA.
The forecasted upper level pattern over the Gulf probably keeps any deviant tracks from going farther west than Mobile and even then that would be a highly sheared landfall. This is the 5 day forecast from the GEFS, so it would be unusual to see drastic changes in that over the next 5 days.
Here are the ensemble tracks from that same run, I'm not sure what is going on with the two that decide to take a tour of the Western Gulf.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:02 am to Hangit
quote:
You keep those puppies safe
quote:
They are not coming with me. I have thought many times about canceling and not going. Still might, or the storm might cancel for me. I am not looking forward to leaving them, but could use the break.
Oh, dogs.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:05 am to slackster
We are shifting west
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