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Posted on 8/16/21 at 9:46 am to deltaland
I would say that's partially why grace is concerning as it drifts over the gulf. maybe duke or rds can chime in.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 9:47 am to rds dc
How screwed am I for my Thursday morning flight to Cancun
Posted on 8/16/21 at 9:48 am to BigHoss
fred can't even get a full radar in OP about to crush land.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 9:52 am to deltaland
quote:
So how will a strong ridge build in to push Grace to Mexico? Wouldn’t Fred and TD8 keep that from building up and leave a weakness to turn north?
quote:
Grace is moving toward the west, or 275/13 kt. The forecast models continue to make a shift to the south, as they are coming into very good agreement on maintaining a strong mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone throughout the forecast period. The latest track forecast was adjusted a little south of the previous one through the first couple of days of the forecast, with a larger shift to the south farther out in time. This forecast track remains to the north of the track consensus, so if the track models remain consistent, additional adjustments to the south will likely be made in the next forecast cycle.
The evolution of the forecast track of Grace is having major implications on the future intensity of the cyclone. It is becoming more likely that the system will track over only the southern portion of Hispaniola, which would result in a lesser disruption of Grace's circulation. Furthermore, the more southern track would bring the cyclone over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean beginning on Tuesday. The environment over that portion of the Caribbean is not all that hostile, with about 10-15 kt of northerly shear being the main inhibiting factor for intensification. By midweek, Grace may interact with the Yucatan Peninsula, which should limit strengthening or perhaps weaken the system depending on the track. Once over the western Gulf of Mexico, late in the forecast period, some additional strengthening is expected, although the wind shear is forecast to increase slightly during that time frame. The latest NHC intensity forecast was raised slightly to reflect the additional time expected over water. However, this forecast is a little lower than most of the guidance.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 9:56 am to Hangit
quote:
St. George Island.
They should be fine, Fred isn't much when compared to Michael which rocked them pretty hard. They still were 99% back by the summer. I go there often, one of my favorite places.
It looks like Mexico Beach is a magnet for hurricanes.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 10:05 am to Tigris
I live in st joe. Currently just some rain and little wind. Like you said, nothing like Michael. Thankfully, we are still cleaning up that business.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 10:40 am to ticklechain
Guy on the weather channel said they were gusting to 20 earlier. Hold me.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 10:42 am to ticklechain
quote:
I live in st joe.
We have a house out on the cape. It was unbelievable how lucky we were during Michael. PSJ had some good damage, but nothing as catastrophic as Mexico Beach. It's crazy seeing all of the timber still down when you drive down from Marianna to Wewa.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 10:54 am to ticklechain
quote:
I live in st joe
I have a few clients over there. Man I heard some horror stories about Hurricane Michael from some of my clients. It's weird being in Mexico Beach then driving to St. Joe and not realizing that the time zone changes.
St. Joe has some pretty cool history.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 11:22 am to Cosmo
That's why the models early this morning were showing intensity as a Cat 4 into Mexico. Basically, it just gets into PED fuel. The run on HMON yesterday seemed possible.
I would say this is still a concerning possibility for northern gulf. The ridge could possibly not be as strong as indicated but so far it seems the models have trended south which is a good sign.
I would say this is still a concerning possibility for northern gulf. The ridge could possibly not be as strong as indicated but so far it seems the models have trended south which is a good sign.
This post was edited on 8/16/21 at 11:25 am
Posted on 8/16/21 at 11:35 am to SmackDaniels
I was living in MB for Michael on overstreet. I stay on eastern time. Gotta pick one or the other, switching is almost impossible
This post was edited on 8/16/21 at 11:36 am
Posted on 8/16/21 at 12:50 pm to ticklechain
Fred has that classic strong tropical storm comma shape
Posted on 8/16/21 at 1:04 pm to The Boat
quote:
Fred has that classic strong tropical storm comma shape
But Peeeeeeej said the wind shear and African dust would knock Fred down.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 1:06 pm to Bestbank Tiger
HWRF with a spawn of Gilbert plowing into Mexico. HMON with a cat 2 hitting mexico similar spot.
:stonecold:
:stonecold:
Posted on 8/16/21 at 1:18 pm to Cosmo
921?! 
Posted on 8/16/21 at 1:47 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
But Peeeeeeej said the wind shear and African dust would knock Fred down.
That stupid arse won't show his face and say he's wrong.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 2:49 pm to Oates Mustache
nah he wont
Posted on 8/16/21 at 2:51 pm to Chad504boy
Fred has made landfall
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