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Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:32 pm to rds dc
The median track is really splitting the difference with half of the tracks going into central Mexico.
I guess unlike Fred this is one where you have to just wait for 24-36 more hours to get an idea of what will happen.
I guess unlike Fred this is one where you have to just wait for 24-36 more hours to get an idea of what will happen.
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:32 pm to rds dc
Wow the black line is a Cat 2 right below SW LA. Think they’ve had enough already
This post was edited on 8/14/21 at 3:33 pm
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:33 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:
The median track is really splitting the difference with half of the tracks going into central Mexico.
I guess unlike Fred this is one where you have to just wait for 24-36 more hours to get an idea of what will happen.
One of the few guys I trust on Storm2K mentioned basically this. Gonna be a nail biter for a few days here.
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:34 pm to Oates Mustache
When in doubt assume its going to LC
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:36 pm to Cosmo
It's awfully close to Laura's anniversary, though it is peak season so it doesn't really mean much. I would just pack up and move if I lived through what they did last year and the Grace paid them a visit.
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:43 pm to Oates Mustache
4pm. West shift continues
This post was edited on 8/14/21 at 3:47 pm
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:44 pm to trussthetruzz
Yeah but its a west shift of a nothingburger
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:46 pm to Cosmo
Yeah Fred isn't the real deal right now, it's Grace's potential. I'm definitely more concerned about her than Right Said Fred.
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:49 pm to Oates Mustache
I don’t really see much wishcasting though. People will obviously pay more attention if models show something heading their way though. Even if it is just 1 run.
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:51 pm to BallsEleven
quote:
I don’t really see much wishcasting though. People will obviously pay more attention if models show something heading their way though. Even if it is just 1 run.
It's subtle, baw. But it's definitely there and in abundance. You have to know the posters and the way they communicate. I've watched all of those forums for over a decade now. You get to know the players well.
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:51 pm to Oates Mustache
Harvesting rice right now and I think back to almost a year ago in a similar situation I can’t imagine it happening again. I know this far out you never know but just the idea makes me feel unease let’s just hope it gets tore up like Fred did basically
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:52 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:
The median track is really splitting the difference with half of the tracks going into central Mexico.
The one thing to watch, those tracks that lift north of the islands are stronger, while the weaker members are generally westward across the islands. Given what recon found, the weaker solutions are probably favored at this point.
The 12z GFS, even with it's crazy solution, shows a pretty unfavorable environment out ahead of Grace. There is a rather large PVS hanging out and the outflow from Fred. That would work together to impart rather significant shear on Grace.
Then GFS kind of ignores that and finds a way for Grace to produce enough convection to fracture the PVS. That allows for Grace to start generating some positive feedback.
Then the GFS has Grace explode over the Gulf.
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:52 pm to Cosmo
quote:
When in doubt assume its going to LC
Posted on 8/14/21 at 3:56 pm to BallsEleven
The NHC drags Grace right on top of Cuba and Hispaniola. This could also have a Fred outlook if she goes right over all of that swath of land. Shredderville
Posted on 8/14/21 at 4:01 pm to rds dc
quote:
Then the GFS has Grace explode over the Gulf.
I remember looking at the 200 mb winds for the period a few days ago and not liking the big anticyclone I was seeing.
Doesn't look like that's changed based on what you're showing.
Posted on 8/14/21 at 4:08 pm to Duke
Can you please elaborate on anticyclone and the impacts it would have on Grace?
Posted on 8/14/21 at 4:12 pm to rds dc
quote:
Posted on 8/14/21 at 4:13 pm to Duke
quote:
I remember looking at the 200 mb winds for the period a few days ago and not liking the big anticyclone I was seeing.
Doesn't look like that's changed based on what you're showing.
The 12z Euro has the ULAC displaced north over TX/LA with a large ULL dominating most of the Gulf. Totally different setup over the Gulf vs the GFS, which produces this:
Posted on 8/14/21 at 4:15 pm to Tower_Tiger12
quote:
Can you please elaborate on anticyclone and the impacts it would have on Grace?
An upper high typically means a low shear regime and the potential vort map rds posted also suggests the same. Hence why the GFS wants to blow Grace up in the gulf.
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