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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - Watching WCAB & Gulf for Late Week Development
Posted on 8/13/21 at 6:26 am to Wally Sparks
Posted on 8/13/21 at 6:26 am to Wally Sparks
Forget Fred. Let’s discuss what the latest GFS does with 95L
However the euro and hwrf have it dying out in the Caribbean
However the euro and hwrf have it dying out in the Caribbean
3
Posted on 8/13/21 at 8:43 am to deltaland
This thread sure died
Posted on 8/13/21 at 8:47 am to rds dc
Any chance this thing relocates to the convection south of Cuba? Looks like there is still some shear but storms are steady firing off.
That would be one hell of a curveball.
That would be one hell of a curveball.
Posted on 8/13/21 at 8:51 am to rds dc
Bastardi says Fred is going to be stronger and more to the west at landfall
Posted on 8/13/21 at 9:06 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
Bastardi says Fred is going to be stronger and more to the west at landfall
That's a viable option, I mentioned earlier in this thread that a more western track might encounter favorable conditions for strengthening, esp across the northern Gulf.
Posted on 8/13/21 at 9:29 am to rds dc
quote:- Peej
it has to survive that Cuban Dust to have any chance
Posted on 8/13/21 at 9:43 am to deltaland
quote:
This thread sure died
Did Fred drop dead?
Posted on 8/13/21 at 9:48 am to rds dc
in those models are they run using the same info and get different runs or do they each have unique info put into them to see what "might" happen? as in say GFS will have a dozen or whatever different possible tracks and they settle on one official gfs one but one might go to Florida and one to Texas. Does the FLorida and texas ones use the exact same info or do they input different scenerios to get those different landfalls like a ridge staying stronger on one and being weaker on another or shear increasing on one and decreasing on another?
This post was edited on 8/13/21 at 9:50 am
Posted on 8/13/21 at 9:49 am to Thracken13
Did I say this you POS???????
Posted on 8/13/21 at 9:51 am to Jvalhenson
that's a damned good question, and one I have wondered about and never thought to ask. I have no idea, but Duke and RDS would be able to clarify it - glad you asked - I can learn something today 
Posted on 8/13/21 at 9:52 am to TDTOM
Not mad at all… just don’t like little useless punks taking shots at me on here when I assure you they don’t have the balls to say shite to my face…. Little punk cowards…..
Posted on 8/13/21 at 9:52 am to Jvalhenson
quote:
in those models are they run using the same info and get different runs or do they each have unique info put into them to see what "might" happen?
Each model has a number of ensembles. Each individual ensemble run has slightly different variables or potential outcomes due to tweaks to certain parameters. The main model will take, essentially, the average and most likely scenario from these ensemble model runs.
This post was edited on 8/13/21 at 9:55 am
Posted on 8/13/21 at 9:56 am to Thracken13
I am pretty sure I recall the hurricane hunters talking about it a couple of times and they said the various runs of the same model have different scenerios input just to get an idea of what is possible give ABCorD happening but wanted to verify just for curiosity. I have had them come to my classes a couple of times as guest speakers for my sudents and A few of us got to go take a ride with them on a training flight a couple years ago out of Keesler. Didnt get to fly into one of course just made a loop from Biloxi to New Orleans back across to Mobile and back to biloxi along with a tour of the planes etc. Was really interesting but had a lot of info slung at us fast so cant recall it all. Lots about the dropsondes etc.
Posted on 8/13/21 at 9:57 am to LegendInMyMind
Legend, would it be fair to think that the variance of the model tracks they get from the runs, that they pick one more centered between the various plotted "ideas" and then adjust based off that? would that type of situation explain so much shifting of the cone projections - especially close to shore?
I know there are a LOT of mitigating circumstances that factors in, but in his example of spaghetti lines,1 into Florida, 1 outlier to Texas with a bunch in between - would they just pick one in the middle, and then adjust later?
hopefully that rambling made some semblance of sense
I know there are a LOT of mitigating circumstances that factors in, but in his example of spaghetti lines,1 into Florida, 1 outlier to Texas with a bunch in between - would they just pick one in the middle, and then adjust later?
hopefully that rambling made some semblance of sense
This post was edited on 8/13/21 at 9:59 am
Posted on 8/13/21 at 9:58 am to LegendInMyMind
yea that is what I thought I recalled them saying. Crazy how much one little factor can change a landfall or intensity.
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:01 am to dukke v
quote:
Not mad at all… just don’t like little useless punks taking shots at me on here when I assure you they don’t have the balls to say shite to my face…. Little punk cowards…..
Everyone here has seen what you look like and knows how old and frail you are, Peej
I don't think anyone is actually intimidated by you, what are you gonna do? Spray your spray tanner in my eyes? Throw one of your boat shoes at me?
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:02 am to Jvalhenson
dude i am so Jelly you got to do that flight.
when i was growing up, the guy across the street from me was a Hurricane Hunter pilot out of Biloxi - the pictures and videos he used to have from those flights were insane.
when i was growing up, the guy across the street from me was a Hurricane Hunter pilot out of Biloxi - the pictures and videos he used to have from those flights were insane.
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:03 am to RazorBroncs
You underestimate me….. just because you saw a pic of me on the front of a boat means nothing… that was like 10 years ago…. I assure you that you want no part of me…
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:03 am to Thracken13
quote:
Legend, would it be fair to think that the variance of the model tracks they get from the runs, that they pick one more centered between the various plotted "ideas" and then adjust based off that? would that type of situation explain so much shifting of the cone projections - especially close to shore?
Yes and no. The NHC looks at all available information, and it is alot of information. Some of the individual model runs are, in all practical purposes, useless because they have outcomes that just simply aren't going to happen. They use it all, though, to make their decisions.
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